India Pakistan Escalatory Spiral Post Pahalgam Massacre

“The true hallmark of a bully is bluff and bluster tempered with a strong spirit of self-preservation, as is the want of the apex military leadership of Pakistan since inception!” – Col RS Sidhu

The Massacre and Initial Indian Response

The 22nd April 2025 massacre of 28 civil tourists at Baisaran meadow of Pahalgam, executed by 5 terrorists wearing camouflage fatigues, body mounted webcams, and armed with US made assault rifles. All indications point to Indian security agencies being in possession of evidence linking the massacre to Pakistan covert operatives. 

By the evening of 23rd of April 2025, India announced the first slew of punitive measures, suspension of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960, whittling down the Pakistan High Commission Staff to under 30 alongside abrogation of posts of DA/MA, abolition of all visas to Pakistan citizens, and closure of the land border crossing at Wagah/Attari on the Amritsar – Lahore international highway.

Other than the suspension of IWT, India has a chequered history of undertaking such punitive measures for short term duration, against Pakistan belligerence before reverting to status quo ante.  

Pakistan Response

On 24th of April 2025 Pakistan has escalated the tensions further by announcing holding in abeyance of all bilateral agreements, suspension of all bilateral trade, stop all cross border transit with India, closure of Pakistan airspace to Indian owned/operated airlines, in addition to reciprocal restrictions on Indian diplomatic staff and visas to Indian citizens. The most incendiary part of the official announcement by Pakistan was declaring any action by India to stop/divert waters guaranteed under IWT as an act of war.

Practical Implications of Pakistan Escalatory Measures

The measures announced by Pakistan primarily mimic the diplomatic response of India to the Pahalgam massacre. The fundamental escalation is in declaring any action by India to stop/divert river waters guaranteed under IWT as an act of war.

Holding In Abeyance All Bilateral Agreements

There are nine bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan. Their significance, status, and impact is listed below.

Nehru- Liaquat Agreement 1950 For Protection of Minorities – The dismal state of minorities in Pakistan clearly underscores the aspect that, in practice, the agreement is honoured by Pakistan more in its breach than in its implementation.

Indus Water Treaty 1960 – This is an agreement highly favourable to Pakistan. Its suspension will have long term adverse impact on Pakistan economy and domestic politics.

Simla Agreement 1973 – Inter alia the Cease Fire Line was recognised as the Line of Control (LC), abjured use of force by both sides, and a commitment to resolve all disputes bilaterally and peacefully. The agreement is not being honoured by Pakistan.

Protocol On Visits To Religious Shrines 1974 – The agreement holds sentimental significance and promoting people to people contacts. This agreement is exempted from the ban.

Prohibition Of Attacks On Nuclear Installations And Facilities 1988 – The agreement makes it incumbent on the two countries to exchange list of nuclear facilities and prohibit any damage or destruction of these facilities. Since Pakistan does not have a ‘No first Use’ nuclear policy, unlike India, it is decidedly against the interest of the latter.

Prevention of Airspace Violations 1991 – It prohibits flying of military aircrafts within 10 kilometers of each other’s airspace. UAVs/RPVs/Drones from Pakistan frequently violate Indian airspace. As civil overflights through Pakistan airspace have already been blocked, the suspension of this agreement provides greater freedom of action to Indian military in engaging violations of its own airspace. 

Lahore Declaration 1999 – This agreement is aimed at promoting environment of peace and security, resolve all issues through composite and integrated dialogue, engage in regular bilateral consultations for developing measures for confidence building in the nuclear and conventional fields aimed at avoidance of conflict, and inform each other in advance of ballistic missile tests. This agreement has been consistently breached by Pakistan, especially by its intrusion in Kargil in 1999, forcing India to launch Operation Vijay to evict Pakistan intrusions.

LC Ceasefire Agreement 2003 – This agreement has been consistently breached by Pakistan. Both sides reaffirmed to abide by it in 2021, but has encountered similar fate.

Reducing Risks From Accidents Related to Nuclear Weapons 2007 – The agreement enjoins on the two sides to improve safety and security of their nuclear weapons, exchange of information of any nuclear accident inform, and take steps to minimise radiological fallout. The agreement is subject to renewal every five years.

Assessment – Pakistan has overall a dismal record of honouring bilateral agreements with India. Its decision to hold in abeyance these bilateral agreements frees India from most of the one sided obligations. 

Suspension Of Bilateral Trade

Against an overall Indian goods trade of US Dollar 430 billion, its trade with Pakistan is merely around US Dollar 1 billion. During the period April 2024 to January 2025 FY 2023-24 Indian exports to Pakistan stood at a mere US Dollar 447.65 million, with imports valued at 0.42 million. The suspension of all bilateral trade therefore is of insignificant value.

Stopping Cross Border Land Transit

In 2023–24 India – Pakistan overland trade valued at INR 3886 Crores, and passenger movement of 71,500 passed through Wagah border crossing. Stopping cross border transit, therefore, has minor impact.

Closure of Pakistan Airspace to Indian Flights

The closure of Pakistan airspace to Indian airlines is likely to incur additional annual expenditure of INR 1,000 Crores, due to extended distance and flying time. It shall also adversely impact their consumer base relative to foreign airlines. However, an inevitable reciprocal closure of Indian airspace to Pakistan airlines shall also have similar financial impact on the latter. The current closure of Pakistan airspace to Indian flights is for a duration of 30 days, which may be extendable by further notifications by Pakistan.  

Stopping River Waters Under IWT Deemed Act of War

Pakistan announcement of declaring any action by India to stop/divert waters guaranteed under IWT as an act of war, has the greatest probability of raising tensions between the two countries. However, Pakistan lacks the war fighting potential to successfully take on India militarily.   

Likely Escalation Matrix

The initial response by the belligerent neighbours are along expected lines based on past precedents. There is more rhetoric than substance in the slew of punitive diplomatic and economic measures announced so far. The announcements are more nuanced to satisfy their domestic audience.

However, India has this time added a significant geopolitical message, by suspending the IWT. Pakistan has reverted along expected lines, threatening to deem such an eventuality as an act of war. But the die is not yet cast for an imminent war. The reasons are not far to see.

For Pakistan, there are multifarious reasons. Militarily it cannot successfully take on the might of the India. Its economy cannot sustain an open military conflict with India. It cannot rely on material Chinese involvement due to the ongoing trade war of the latter with US. The nuclear threat is a non-option as it would result in decimation of the Pakistan military hierarchy. India in the aftermath of the 2019 Balakot airstrike, ensured the release of the captured Indian pilot Wg Cdr Abhinandan Vardhaman, by successfully calling the Pakistan nuclear bluff. The Generals of Pakistan, the defacto rulers of the country, simply have no appetite for suffering self-annihilation.     

As far as India is considered, an open conflict will be economically very debilitating, considering the global trade uncertainties. It will also adversely impact its expectations of gaining economic windfall from the ongoing global tariff war between US and China. This would also setback its continued rise in the comity of nations.

An open India Pakistan conflict would, on the other hand, be favourable to the US. Any Chinese involvement, in a desperate attempt to safeguard it’s heavy investments in Pakistan, would develop wide cracks in the BRICS and also invite probable US intervention. This would stump BRICS attempt at re-engineering the global trade away from the influence of the US Dollar, and substituting the erstwhile West Bloc dominated Bretton Woods international financial architecture with an alternative of their own making.   

However, strong possibility of a follow through limited military response by India continues to exist, with a face saving riposte by Pakistan. But it is unlikely to spiral into an open conflict owing to geopolitical pressures from China and Russia. After all it’s a war from which no leadership shall escape unscathed !