Will Modi do a Kennedy?

"Within less than 60 minutes from now 2nd CCS meeting followed by CCEA meeting will be underway.

One thing is absolutely clear; the decisions taken during first CCS meeting were not enough to meet the situation.

Modi is faced with dillemma. " - Gp.Capt TP Srivastava

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Cold war was at its peak. USA had elected the youngest President ever; the famous JFK. Acid test of his presidency was dealing with ‘Cuban Missile Crisis”. Russia (then USSR) deployed nuclear tipped missiles in Cuba, which were detected and confirmed by various U-2 flights.

World was on its edge facing likelihood of nuclear holocaust. The two statesmen controlling the issues as they emerged were JFK and Khrushchev. Although the Cuban Missile Crisis as an event cannot be compared with response to terrorist attack, if viewed in isolation. Blockade and events that followed in tense 22 days are part of history.

However the CORE ISSUE has striking similarity, which is ‘TO USE NUKES OR NOT?’

Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved by USSR agreeing to remove missiles from Cuba in lieu of USA removing JUPITER missiles from Turkey.

Krushchev’s son has placed specific record of exchanges between the two leaders. It is a voluminous document, which I will not place in public domain. Two issues are very clear; Firstly USSR fear that USA will carry out a nuclear strike; Secondly, US advisors to President JFK were unanimous that USA must carry out a nuclear strike.

JFK, however decided exactly the opposite, which is indicated by the message in one of his last letters to Khrushchev, who responded positively to remove the missiles on quid pro quid basis. JFK unilaterally decided not to use nukes in spite of few missile bases on DEFCON IV alert status. Rest is history.

Modi faces the same dilemma. As is evidently clear from initial CCS decisions viz suspending IWT etc. None of the measures adopted will have immediate effect. It is the eighth day today, 30th April, after terrorist massacre.

I have no doubt that our supreme advisors would be constantly telling Modi not to exercise nuclear option. My views are based on the fact that these supreme advisors have failed to alter our REDUNDANT and IMPOTENT policy of NFU to NEED BASED FIRST USE. Various govt mouthpieces including CDS have been singing the virtues of NFU policy.

It is this fact, which makes me believe that Modi will listen to all ‘NAY SAYERS’ advocating ‘NO NUCLEAR OPTION’ patiently but take his own decision; NUKE PAKISTAN and ABSORB THE DAMAGE. JFK did exactly that; he listened to his entire cabinet but DECIDED AGAINST THEIR ADVICE.

CCS and CCEA meetings to be held within an hour from now are crucial for Modi’s biggest acid test. He will not fail.