Massacre At Baisaran Meadows: Tactical Action Causing Strategic/National Pain

The massacre and barbaric savagery on 22 April, unleashed at Baisaran meadows, about 7 kms from Pahalgam town in Anantnag District in South Kashmir by the flunkies of Pakistan Army has left the nation in rage and grief. A lot has been said about the same in the public domain. My attempt here is a perspective of a military mind.

I, having recently retired from active military service and, having served along the line of control as well as in in the Kashmir Valley for a number of years, as part of a Rashtriya Rifles Battalion, as well as otherwise, during the peak of militancy, couldn’t hold myself from carrying out a tactical analysis of this gruesome incident. In plain simple terms in nutshell, it was a thoroughly planned military operation and executed under the continuous guidance and control of multiple military minds sitting across the border. The fact that the perpetrators of this heinous crime are still at large (by the time we go to press) confirms the belief that the nefarious military minds of Pakistan army are still active in guiding them.

Though the peace has largely been restored in this region since 2019, post abrogation of Article 370, the Kashmir valley is yet to be declared as an ‘Undisturbed Area’. And therefore, the security in the valley continues to be provided by an integrated grid, formed by integrating the resources of Security Forces, based on ‘a grid system of security network’. Same is done by identifying and prioritising the vulnerabilities in each element of the grid and protecting the same as per its priority. The human and material resources at the disposal of each of these grids must have been optimally deployed for each of these vulnerabilities. We must understand and appreciate that, all said and done, such resources are finite. We are yet to reach a stage wherein we can deploy more than optimum resources for security of each of these vulnerabilities and spots 24x7, day in and day out endlessly.

With perceived normalcy being restored in Kashmir Valley (probably at the surface level) and probably to provide confidence to the general people and the visiting tourists, this security grid tends to get in the shadows, away from public glare so as to reduce/dilute their perceived intimidating presence. The removal of visible soldier behind a sandbag, guarding each corner, are some of those steps taken to remove the visible intimidation and to help perception of the said normalcy. Same could have had happened in this area and the Pakistan-army-guided terrorists took full advantage of same. The local inputs about the relative laxity in the potency of this security grid and hence the surfacing vulnerability cannot be ruled out at this stage. But that is definitely for those in the establishment to audit and uncover.

It being a peak season of tourism in the valley and there being a number of geographically-separated tourists spots on the regular itinerary of the visitors, the integrated security network must have analysed the relative vulnerability of these spots and accorded due priority for deployment of the security resources at all these spots. Amongst all the places, Dal Lake, Lal Chowk, Tulip Garden, Shankaracharya, Gulmarg and Pahalgam are the more prominent spots which are thronged by the visitors in huge numbers. These must have definitely been part of the said security grid.

Baisaran Meadows near Pahalgam being one of the exclusive tourist spots on the itinerary of most of the tourists because of its relatively remote location, exclusive beauty and serenity, the same ought to have been identified as one of the potential vulnerabilities by those responsible for this part of security grid. But, a continuous drop in guard at this remote location must have not gone unnoticed by the local but despicable eyes and ears of those sitting across the border. And hence, the strike here at leisure by those animals.

I shall not debate here as to how could these armed terrorists cover almost 200 kms from the LC so ad to reach so much in depth in the hinterland. I shall also not talk about the remnants of so-called sleeper cells, which aid and assist these animals in their acts. Misplaced ideology or lure of money could be their currency. But, having reached the general area from across, having rested well, and married up with local support, these terrorists must have been ordered by their handlers to the most vulnerable spot, selected as target. And thereafter, they would have executed their act.

Analysis of the terrorist attack through a Military Mind

So, if one analysis the entire attack dispassionately, one can say with certainty that this attack was planned and executed under the direct and active involvement of Pakistan Army. The use of body-cams to either stream the gory acts live to their handlers across or to record same as their proof, was a step ahead of what they did during 26/11 Mumbai attack in 2008. The following specifics shall prove the involvement of Pakistan Army beyond reasonable doubt.

Planning. The detailed planning in choosing the terrain, identifying the target and the time for execution has all the tell-tale signs of a reprehensible military mind.

Identifying Vulnerability and Striking there. The Baisaran Meadows, on 22 April, had all the ingredients for being a requisite soft target for such a strike. The following merits consideration:

Location. The meadows is a wide-open ground, devoid of cover but has dense forests along its fringes for best camouflage and cover. So, while the vulnerable unarmed civilian victims were in open ground becoming easy target, the terrorists had good space to escape under cover after the strike.

Male Hindu Tourists as Targets. The selective targeting of Male Non-Muslim Tourists, with pan-India hue, ie being from across the length and breadth of the country (Arunachal Pradesh to Tamil Nadu to Gujrat) and thus causing a Pan India pain and grief and also telling the spared helpless wife to convey the message to Prime Minister, all points towards a very incisive and focussed target plan, which could only be attributed to a military mind.

Laxity. The regular visit to this open-space resort by the tourists and perceived prolonged calm in the area might have infused a sense of normalcy (leading to complacency) in the acts and minds of those responsible for this security grid. And same must have been sensed by the local eyes and ears of those sitting across the border, thus facilitating them to prioritise this spot as a target.

Narrow Approach. The meadow has a limited single narrow entry/exit point which prevents quick getaway for the victims or for quick evacuation of the injured. The place can be reached only by a single foot or pony track from the nearest road head taking considerable time and effort, which plays in favour of the terrorist.

Nearest Road. This distance from the nearest road also delays the response by any Quick Reaction Team by at least 30 precious minutes, which are enough for terrorists to melt away post-strike.

Time The terrorists were tasked to strike at a time when there would be maximum tourists at the meadow as also the response time from Security Forces would be the slowest. Further, the post-strike chaos in evacuating the victims would leave minimum hours of day light for any counter action and shall facilitate easy melt away for the terrorists in the onsetting dusk. The terrorists had stuck at about 2.50 PM, knowing fully well of all these advantages.

Body Cams. The live streaming / recording of the dastardly act by the terrorists was not for any purpose but for confirming their acts to their handlers in real-time; because they were aware that, unlike 26/11, there won’t be any media at the meadows to show and record their terror act to the world.

Caution. Though there has been an exodus of tourists from the Kashmr valley, the perpetrators of this heinous crime are still at large. So, the tasking for them by the Pakistan Army handlers sitting across, to strike again at yet another vulnerability cannot be ruled out, especially when that establishment is impatient and incorrigible. Therefore, without sounding hawkish, I strongly recommend a de novo vulnerability analysis of all the potential targets by the integrated security setup in the area. I am sure that same must already be happening on ground.

Note - This article was first published by Hindi National Daily AMAR UJALA (Hindi translation) and now republished by MVI in its original English version with permission of the author.