Can India Win The War With Pakistan?

Does India have the capacity, capability and wherewithal to win an all out war, what we call 'an absolute victory' ,over Pakistan ? My take below :

I see a lot of rhetoric in the media, where people with little or minimal knowledge of war, make assumptions and analysis on the likely sequence of action in the coming days. The biggest paradox is that the people who know and understand the consequences of war are the ones who remain silent, the ones that sit in their drawing rooms and generate thought processes through varied perceptions, that they picked up on social media or by watching media channels on the TV, are the loudest !

Many of the people that I know have constantly asked me : " Does India have the military capability to win a war with our western adversary".

As having seen India’s capability buildup, including the type of infrastructure that we have to support war, improved logistics and communications,I would gladly be willing to say with our economy backing us and with a decisive government in power our chances of going to battle for a cause is very high. A limited war -Yes!

But will there be an outright Victory? My answer simply is - No !

Victory completely depends on a lot of factors that influence not only war, but also what you see and perceive as ' victory. territory ' gained, the enemy internationally apologising and wanting cease fire, international players refuting the ideology of war, putting pressure towards war avoidance. Casualties in war far beyond those worked out in the war rooms. Destruction of men and material and its consequences in the visual domain on live TV and Social Media. Surrendering before fighting, leaving the entire war philosophy and the imposition of a strong will as fractious. Or even preempting an attack, launching by Pakistan before us, hoping we react and don’t fall to order by playing out our original plans, causing major disruptions on deployment of troops and resources. Stymying us before even we could launch.

When a country goes to war, it has calculated the dimensions of war and war games the entire process to figure out the following.

⁃ What is the aim?

⁃ Is this going to be a just war, fighting for a cause?

⁃ What is my mission intent?

⁃ What kind of operations will my mission entail? Surgical, skirmishes, limited, deterrence forcing deployment or all out war ?

⁃ Can I control this war?

⁃ Can I achieve the most with application of the minimum? If so where? When? With what? How?

⁃ Will it help me achieve my desired end state?

⁃ How can it escalate?

⁃ Do I have the wherewithal to control the escalation?

⁃ Will I need to redeploy?

⁃ Are my support systems like the air and the navy in sync?

⁃ At any given stage if I have reached the desired end state, do I have the ability to culminate and declare victory?

⁃ What are the conflict termination indicators that should form part of my strategy of military application?

⁃ Do I have adequate resolve to continue sometimes despite temporary losses? Or will the country fall to emotional upheaval ending what we started without achievement?

⁃ Do I have the money, the troops, the infrastructure, the ammunition and my country backing me?

⁃ What are the likely external factors that can impede my strategy forcing me for mid course termination with the end state still ambiguous?

⁃ What are my vulnerabilities? Have we adequately taken care of them? Lest there be a quid pro quo. (This will even negate the little chances of a propagated victory).

⁃ At what stage should we start preparing for consolidation ops? Will there be a consolidation? Or will it be boom, bang, bash on and withdraw ?

⁃ How in the long term can we sustain the campaign ?

⁃ Will it be a military end state or a definite victory within the political narrative?

We should be clear that sheer numbers, portrayed by the media as a definite traction for victory in war material is largely flawed. The number of ships, aircraft’s, tanks, guns, infantry soldiers ,etc ,do not matter if they aren’t employed in the right place, in the right time and in the right manner. And ofcourse under the right leadership. It is not going to war that is an art BUT THE ORCHESTRATION OF WHAT YOU HAVE PUT TO BATTLE WITH TENACITY, TACT & SURPRISE that will make you win it. War also has something called the warrior's guess, or the warrior's intuition. Therefore a calculated risk taking leadership is likely to win a battle more than someone who plays it safe. Because application and results are all about who adapted to the contingencies faster and better.

Every enemy has those points of sensitivity to which he will react or counterattack with strength. These points are vital to his existence. They will be adequately and strongly defended. Any battles here will cause great casualties and bring back body bags. The victor here might win a stage in the battle but not the war. Because these sensitivities are spread both in the horizontal and vertical depth. But ,yes, these will give you 'battle honours' and 'theatre honours' which you will display as the ultimate reward of application of your military force in that area of brutal conflict resulting in victory. But ultimately due to gallant action, both will claim victory, the deciding factor here would be occupation of terrain, capture of a town or a pass. Retaining it until the end of war.

Therefore what I see happening is a limited war, that will be fought in a manner, that you launch for definitive gains with a desired end state in mind. Once you achieve that you declare victory. Then you use the tools of media to propagate an information agenda or application of what is called information based warfare. This helps in sending a clear message of the intent, the conduct and the justification of the decision. Not only to the adversary, but to our own and the world in general. That we as Indians have the capability to retaliate in the time and space of our own choosing, if we are threatened even with strategies below the threshold of war. That we won’t tolerate nonsense and if violence begets violence, so be it !

Finally ,no war comes without the NOISE. What we see today is something called intelligent probing happening everywhere. War is all about surprise, deception, guile, leadership, guts, decisions and finally definitive action.

When it will happen? Where it will happen? How will it happen? There are a hundred ways and hundred places. But REMEMBER what you hit has to be of importance to the enemy. Where it hurts it the most,so his generations can cry about being let down by their mighty military and political dispensations.

The Pakistan military runs Pakistan. The Pahalgam incident too is a crude form of Pak military application to gain vitality in their failing eco system and get back the trust of the people. What better way than war mongering. Even if this war takes place,you will find Pak media making sense of every operation as their own victory. Any foot of ground gained within India, which will happen cause this is war, will have Paki’s elated and dancing in joy. Indian body bags and the propaganda of India having failed after being an aggressor will be playing centre field. They still claim they won the 1965 war.

For India if we want to showcase absolute victory even within limited operations - ITS SIMPLE - TAKE SENSITIVE PAKISTANI TERRITORY AND CONSOLIDATE IT. The analogy is in the visible domain, you would have changed the map of Pakistan. THIS WILL HURT LIKE THE CREATION OF BANGLDESH FOR YEARS TO COME.

So BALOCHISTAN? SIND? GILGIT BALTISTAN? POK? HAJIPIR? CHHAMB? KASUR? LAHORE? BAHAWALPUR? RYK? KARACHI? KUTCH?

Where do you think you are going to be hit? Wait and watch - you will be surprised !