Strikes on Nuclear Weapon Capability

"US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities has re-ignited the debate as to why India did not take a similar action against Pakistan decades ago.

Pseudo strategists are already blaming earlier governments. However none of them realise that strikes on nuclear installations in Iraq, Syria by Israel and current US action against Iran relates to preventing these nations acquire nukes to destroy Israel. Hence their programme was an existential threat to Israel.

Pak nuclear programme is not an existential threat to India. In fact Pak option of going nuclear has only resulted in this impoverished nation failing to create a civilised society because money which could have been used for development was/is being diverted towards sustaing nuclear programme. By default it is an ECONOMIC WEAPON used by India."

--Gp Capt TP Srivastava

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The first strike on nuclear weapons establishment capable of producing a bomb ‘could have been KAHUTA in Pakistan’. But it never happened because Indian leadership of that time could not muster the courage to attack and destroy Kahuta. Israel offered to do that and sought transit facilities for its fighters at IAF Bases, which was declined. Pakistan became a nuclear weapons state. The rest is history.

But the story line in middle east was quite different. Israel did not wait for any advice/support from any nation, including USA before attacking Iraqi and Syrian nuclear establishments successfully. Nearly a decade later USA presumed that Iraq was likely to acquire nukes. Op Desert Storm led by USA (37 nation force) in 1991 tried to locate the non-existing nuclear facility and destroyed almost entire Iraqi infra-structure.

Israel survived the combined onslaught of Arab nations surrounding it in 1967 and 1973. Israel realized that it may not be able to challenge combined might of Arab nations with conventional weapons hence it decided to go nuclear and it did. Combined might of Arab nations (including Egypt) could not prevent it. Israel, since its inception as an independent nation has faced/still facing existential threat not only from its immediate Arab neighbours but also distant Iran.

While no Arab nation was successful to develop nukes, Iran decided to acquire nuclear weapons and supposedly commenced its efforts more than two decades ago. Israel was concerned but did not have the military hardware to strike deep inside Iran. Iran claimed that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. However keeping in view the number of Iranian nuclear establishment and their locations embedded few hundred feet underground, Iranian intentions were quite clear.

Iranian leadership over the years continued to assert that Iran’s nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes only. However IAEA inspection reports over last five years indicate that Iran is planning to produce nuclear weapons. That Iran has large stock of 60% enriched Uranium is a common knowledge. IAEA in March, 2023 discovered traces of nearly 84% enriched Uranium. These findings left no doubt that Iran will produce nukes in none too distant future.

USA attempted to halt Iranian nuclear weapons programme by an agreement JCPOA during Obama regime. But Iran continued to achieve much greater concentration state (read enrichment) of Uranium, which was very close to weapons grade Uranium. As per latest IAEA report Iran has already achieved 60% enrichment.

Ongoing talks between Iran and USA could not resolve the issue. USA then decided to join the ongoing war between Israel and Iran. US military decided to strike main underground facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. B-2 bombers armed with two GBU-57s, the 30,000 lb only bunker buster bomb capable of penetrating nearly 200 feet complimented by Tomahawk missiles launched from suitably located submarine. Latest satellite imagery of Fordow clearly shows three different holes created by GBU-57. Exact damage cannot be assessed from these imageries, but going by Iranian reactions it appears that US strike has caused considerable damage to all three facilities.

US strike on Iranian nuclear facility (Operation Midnight Hammer) has re-ignited the nearly forgotten and buried debate about India undertaking similar mission before Pakistan carried out its first nuclear weapons test. Indian pseudo strategists are in full flow, most condemning Indian government of the day for not crossing the rubicon. They are comparing past and current strikes on nuclear establishments and blaming Indian government for failing to do the same. All of them without exception have failed to look at the issue using neurons rather than emotions. Development of nuclear weapon/s by Iraq, Syria and Iran would have been an EXISTENTIAL THREAT for ISRAEL. However in case of Pakistan possessing nukes there is no EXISTENTIAL THREAT for India.

Although Pak leadership has been shouting from roof tops that it will use nukes if its territorial integrity is compromised by India but OP SINDOOR has put that to rest. India struck strategic targets deep inside Pakistan during less than 100 hours war (7-10th May, 2025) but Pakistan failed to keep its promise to its citizens made by all and sundry of Pak leadership, both civilian and military. India has successfully called the nuclear bluff of Pakistan. Not only that India has made it clear that any Pak aided terror act in future will be considered as an act of war and India will retaliate at place and time of its choosing.

Hence, if at all, it is the Indian nukes that are EXISTENTIAL THREAT for Pakistan and not the other way round. Story line in case of Israel is exactly the opposite, hence the two cannot be compared. However Pakistan going nuclear has an economic dimension as well. India’s nuclear test in 1974 forced Pakistan to ‘go nuclear’ and in the process forced it to spend huge amount towards developing nuclear facilities instead of development. It nearly crippled Pakistan economy from which it has not recovered and literally survives on dole provided by IMF, World Bank etc. Current state of Pak economy might result in state of Pakistan imploding in near future without any intervention from India.

Op Sindoor has clearly highlighted that Pakistan will not/is not capable of carrying out a nuclear strike on India. Because guaranteed swift and formidable Indian retaliation will almost certainly obliterate most of Pakistan. India’s second strike capability from its operational TRIAD cannot/will not be neutralized by Pakistan or for that matter by any other nation. India has already operationalised MIRV capability. Brilliant Indian nuclear scientists must be working on miniaturizing the nuclear warheads. One/two MIRV capable missiles, each carrying four/six nuclear warheads of about 30 kiloton will almost certainly destroy more than half of Pakistan in a single strike. Pakistan will have to continue investing to maintain and sustain its nuclear weapons programme. Hence Pak nuclear weapons are an ECONOMIC liability to itself rather than pose a substantive threat to India.

Sooner than later India will develop a 10,000 km range ICBM. Ongoing GAGANYAAN programme is a definite indicator that we are on the threshold of acquiring 10,000 km range ICBM. As and when that happens Indian missiles will reach all corners of globe. With regard to USA and Pakistan relations, there is no need to keep harping on this ‘mundane’ issue. Pakistan was, is and will remain a strategic necessity for USA to counter the twin threats of China and Russia. Indian strategists including eminent senior military veterans keep emphasizing this issue repeatedly highlighting their Pak centricity. India is slowly but surely inching to become a global economic power. Comparing ourselves with the impoverished state of Pakistan is devaluing ourselves.

While most parts of globe are on the boil, Indian sub continent remains peaceful. Expression and intent to use power, if and when needed, is the best policy against an errant nation. Both China and Pakistan must have realized that India of 2025 is vastly different from India of few decades ago. Iran is flexing its muscles by threatening to close Straits of Hormuz, a suicidal action, if taken. China will be the worst affected. India, too will face adversity. Non-nuclear fall out of such events and actions by nation states will affect the globe.