THE BIG WAR & THE FALL OF WISDOM -Neil John-

Why does this war fail to impress? Israel, the world’s most technologically advanced army with the most powerful intelligence assets along with the USA the mightiest military force in numbers, experience and intent, went into war with a bull headed confidence. Not having learnt their lessons from the Vietnam war and the war in Afghanistan. Not studying battle habits and existential military cultures, not having actually thought enough of the most likely form of retaliation. Having completely failed at basic military principles of application of asymmetric forces.

Somewhere in their understanding of OOAC (out of area conflict) they didn’t actually completely calculate the retaliation factor. They depended on three main strategies. One - Bomb to destroy military and select civil (high economy assets). Two - assassinate the leadership to effect a regime change and therefore render the military and the political system rudderless and incapable. Thirdly - Run or propagate a people movement which would internally build conditions that would prevail in ousting the current regime and assist in the aim of a SHORT INTENSE FOCUSED LIMITED CONFLICT.

They failed in all three.

The missiles still fire (although the frequency and lethality is more controlled and lethal now). The regime has a third line of succession already ready and in place to take over. The IRGC is still potent. The internal anti regime forces and people have too much opposing them in terms of consolidated intent, economics for mass protests and outreach, the tools for a mixed approach of rebelling through people oriented protests and select military application to take on the IRGC weapon wielding forces is grossly inadequate.

Iran is choking the strong points, being a threat in being to neighbouring nations, brutally crushing the people seeking freedom within the country and making the cost of war that the Americans and Israelis started expensive. The effects of which are being felt all through the world. Today the focus is on the Strait of Hormuz. 90% of the time media houses are talking about the death choke, heavily mined, prone to asymmetric applications of small teams and weapon systems. That one jugular vein that has become the key strategic centre of gravity for both sides to claim absolute victory.

Just weigh the odds. America negotiates with Iran and Iran as a payback negotiates the stoppage of the war. Regime stays, people are back to being Iranians, the hijabs are back on, the IRGC starts culling out the rebels, blood on the streets, internet clamp down, AI starts propaganda. But Oil flow and gas pipelines aren’t threatened, Americans tweak the deal on their terms or they think that they are making sense, by decreasing the Iran - China dependencies. Also seeking a percentage of the sale of oil spoils. DECREE - IRAN WON will be played up as such. And in history the Iranians (the SHIA) will proclaim it as the ultimate war that Iran won alone against the mighty west and the Sunni Middle East.

The US VICTORY - the Strait of Hormuz and the USA with the assist of the NATO and the Middle East countries gains hold on the strait. They put boots on ground. Establish an anti Missile umbrella. Protect the strait from drone attacks by placing anti drone measures. put boots on ground to flush out renegade small teams. Move a battle carrier group in the vicinity. Place lethal military assets in close proximity. Get the ISR systems into high tech infusion and make the shore line transparent. Meanwhile still aiming at a regime change. Lots of work here. Will take months/ years to establish and the worse is in asymmetric warfare and its application. No one can actually stop a suicidal small team from causing uncontrollable damages and increasing the vulnerable threat.

So what now? It’s in the world’s interest to end the war at the fastest. Because the world is losing money. Money is the greatest tool of war. Without money, lot of nations might feel

The unrest. The unrest is always exploited by the mediums that are waiting like vultures to feed on the dead. Do we see more mutinies? people centric revolutions? Change of governments and THE RISE OF THE UNDERPAID & THE LESS PRIVILEGED? Will this war cascade into a philosophical upheaval where people get back power and governments get back to being people oriented, people friendly and not KINGDOMS? And lone leaders don’t make or break a nation just because they feel that they are messengers of god. And these leaders love the podium and the power that comes with it. They will fight tooth and nail to retain that fiefdom.

Therefore, Will we have a regime change in Iran? I doubt, not in the interests of the powerful. Think again !!!!!