HAS IRAN WON THIS WAR ? NARRATIVE VS REALITY -Brigadier Neil John, SM (R)-

Take lessons from the Lebanon Israel conflict of 2016. Israel entered South Lebanon and destroyed everything that stood, villages, bridges, roads and utility buildings south of the Litani river. Then they declared that they had lost men and material and therefore lost the war.

Hezbollah started cheering, Nasrallah proclaimed victory from the roof tops and on international media channels. Three months down the line, the hezbollah realised that they were played. The quantum of destruction by the Israeli military was so huge, that the south of Lebanon wouldn’t be rebuilt even after all the money was pumped in by Qatar and Iran for the next 50 years. Infact Nasrallah later publicly announced how they were misled into believing that they had won.

We are talking about the worlds most intelligent army Israel and the worlds strongest military USA.

While war will always have the aggressor as the criminal. History will tell another story.

Let’s talk about military assets. Iran no longer is a military threat in peace time to all neighbouring nations. Most of their credible military assets have been destroyed. Iran would need the money to rebuild both the military and its infrastructure. So naturally the funding to hezbollah, the renegades in Syria and the Yemen military is going to be dampened. Iran will in its quest to regain lost glory, get into heavy debt and thereby rely on foreign assistance. In the likely clauses for cease fire, the US would put in a stake to regain their cost of war. The money they expended to reduce Iran to a state of need.

The Saudi’s, UAE, Qatar will be the happiest. This war ensured physical safety and no military threat from the Shia for the next half century or two.

Nuclear assets destroyed, navy destroyed, land army all in disarray. The only thing going for Iran is the missile stockpile. But don’t we all know that every time he fires a missile, though it lands where intended, he is giving away a location to be counter bombarded and terminated. And also the stockpile is limited and will soon run out.

Meanwhile Israel has been the most intelligent. The quintessential threat it faces of Iran and its proxies has been hit so hard. That even through the losses they have a huge victory in front of them. Who was Israel’s main and only threat? Simply, it’s Iran. The hezbollah an Iranian proxy. The Yemeni military another Iranian Proxy. The Israeli’s weighed the strategic gains against the losses and THEY ALREADY WON.

The US won’t leave this battle midway. Even if they proclaim a strategic cease fire. It’s their battle now. Assassinations, selective targeting of infrastructure and people politics will be played silently under the garb of a treaty. And they still have the ACE OF SPADES up their sleeves. What brings Iran its money? Oil? They still haven’t hit Iranian oil rigs. Which they can hit and destroy with relative ease.

The Straits of Hormuz will open, but trust me, the US will have the cherry on the pie, even in this. After all, they think it was a just war and once a treaty is signed, Iran is obligated to pay for the war that Americans waged to bring the peace they thought was justified to the Iranians tormented by the regime.

War doesn’t end when the bombing stops. Infact war began with intelligence and the war will end with intelligence application in the grey zone after war.

So while the anti war establishments and the TRUMP haters for his oddly toxic media posturing will call it Irans victory. Trump and his team will prevail. At the end the Iranians have lost what is most essential to military sustainability. It’s the war fighting capability or the military capability to defend. The drama will continue. AI and narratives will still be run.

Cause Iran is not only an independent country but also the only standing Shia power. They will never want to go down in history as losers or without having fought till the end with the western devils. Because for them it’s not about Iran only, it’s about claiming their place in history as the SHIA ARMY THAT FOUGHT THE WESTERN KAFIR. And not like the nations around that sold their soul to the white man. After all in Islamic culture sacrifice brings glory.