Quantum Randomization: A Politico-Military Doctrine for India

Editor's Note

This comprehensive article is in three parts comprising : 1. Strategy & Doctrine, 2. Design of Battle & 3.Tactical Outline . It is being published by MVI to enable combined reading and study by interested readers/military students .

Earlier ,only part 1 of this article was first published by Fauji India Magazine in Jan 2017 & again in Aug 2025, post Op Sindoor . It was published in 2018 in vol 4 of Victory India Campaign book titled - ' Beyond The Victory India Campaign ' .

There is a lot to be gained from this combined version which has relevant pictures and explanatory diagrams .The article has also been endorsed/ validated by a cross section of reputed military officers .

Col Vinay B Dalvi,

Editor ,MVI

https://www.missionvictoryindia.in/post/quantum-randomisation-a-politico-military-doctrine-for-india

By Col PK Royal Mehrishi

“The New Age Integrated Warfighting Doctrine for India in 3 Parts with Feedback & Validation”

Answers to our problems lie in implementing a few principles of Quantum Physics. One of the principles is randomness – “One of the most surprising and (historically, at least) controversial aspects of quantum physics is that it's impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of a single experiment on a quantum system. When physicists predict the outcome of some experiment, the prediction always takes the form of a probability for finding each of the particular possible outcomes, and comparisons between theory and experiment always involve inferring probability distributions from many repeated experiments.”

By:

Colonel PK “Royal” Mehrishi (Retd)\

Strategy & Doctrine

Since our Independence (1947), we as a nation are often exasperated and sometimes at our wits' end in adopting measures to deal with a hostile and errant neighbour like Pakistan. We have gone through four wars, achieved decisive victory in all, and held 93,000 Prisoners of War after 1971. Yet, the attacks by way of ceasefire violations and terror proxies continue unabated at the behest of Pakistan. Do we have a national doctrine to respond to challenges thrown at us? What then is the way forward for the next 20 years?

Our basic problem has always been the predictability of our response. Sample the following:

●       We have a no first use of nuclear weapon policy.

●       We are a responsible nuclear power.

●       We are a professional army who do not commit barbaric acts (like mutilation of a soldier’s body).

●       We are a peaceful nation.

●       In thousands of years of our national history, we have never attacked another nation nor coveted another nation's land or territory.

The overall narrative is to speak/posture from a high moral ground with predictable responses. Anger and over-the-top exhibition of emotions whenever we are attacked, raucous debates in the media and finally acceptance of casualties as an act of God (karma/ kismet/ fate). Is this the response that will get us even a semblance of peace at our borders?

Answers to our problems lie in implementing a few principles of Quantum Physics. One of the principles is randomness – “One of the most surprising and (historically, at least) controversial aspects of quantum physics is that it's impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of a single experiment on a quantum system. When physicists predict the outcome of some experiment, the prediction always takes the form of a probability for finding each of the particular possible outcomes, and comparisons between theory and experiment always involve inferring probability distributions from many repeated experiments.”

In all discussions and debates on military doctrine, we hear of our response “going up the escalatory ladder”. This itself is predictable. No one has ever spoken of a response which could be unpredictable, out of proportion (to punish), asymmetrical or in a geographically tangential

landscape. Let me explain, a soldier is martyred in the Poonch sector, our response invariably is to punish Pakistani bunkers or posts along the LoC in and around Poonch or thereabouts. Our aim seems to contain the ceasefire violation by the adversary in the same geographical plane /area.

The first of the Indian military doctrines ever thought and tested in an exercise called Op Brasstacks which was the Sundarji doctrine (1984-2004) named after General Krishnaswamy Sundarji, which envisaged seven holding Corps along the borders and three strike Corps (camping in the interiors) to mobilize and render sledgehammer blows to puncture through enemy defence line and penetrate deep to destroy Pakistan’s fighting capability. This, as we all know by now, came a cropper during Op Parakram, when we took 28 days to mobilise and build up our forces at the border (by then the surprise factor was lost).

A direct fallout of the lessons learnt after Op Parakram was the Cold Start doctrine (2004-2014). This doctrine did not require a long period for mobilisation and comprised eight Integrated Battle Groups (IBG) moving directly from designated cantonment areas close to the border to cross the border for “shallow gains” (as opposed to Sundarji’s deep strike) to have an upper hand at the negotiating table later, after the battle is over. Pakistan’s threat of use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) to blunt this offensive has been discussed widely.

Since PM Modi took office on 26 May 2014, there has been some talk of the ‘Modi–Doval Doctrine (2014-2016)’ which has some fantasy components, more in the realm of imagination than anything in concrete terms for military planning or national security. Quantum Randomization National Doctrine is a holistic doctrine of politico-military statecraft. The essential components are:

●       Economic Measures – Removal of MFN status, curtailing trade, disallowing movement of farm produce from Kashmir to POK, economic sanctions, whichever can be enforced.

●       Diplomatic Pressure – Isolating Pakistan at every world forum, UN resolutions, sanctions, its own permanent seat in the UNSC etc.

●       Geographical Manipulation – Controlling/damming the flow of rivers from upper riparian states. Flooding Pakistan when required. Causing smog-like conditions along the borders by artificial means (to be used in conjunction with military operations).

●       Leadership Disenchantment – Tailing the top 100, military and political leaders of Pakistan, their bank accounts, assets, properties, children’s education, overseas accounts and planting leaks in the press and media with proofs/evidence to create disenchantment in the masses with their leadership of the day. Creating a divide between the Haves and Have Nots, as there are glaring differences in incomes.

●       Electoral Interference – Interfering with the electoral process in Pakistan by funding through a state-sponsored hawala route. Promote sympathetic Indian candidates and their elections to local and national assemblies.

●       Cultural Invasion – Briefing top 20 directors (Films/TV) on the need for nationalistic fervour and allowing them artistic freedom to produce movies that project our nation as the promised land of “milk and honey” with great opportunities for leading a good quality of life. Beaming quality serials/programs across the border and getting the population of Pakistan hooked on watching Indian content.

●       Satellite Surveillance – Launching more high-resolution satellites to watch over activities in sensitive spots over Pakistan.

●       Cultivating Allies – Afghanistan, Iran, USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan are natural allies. Russia needs to be cultivated as a bulwark against China. Out of 56 Islamic countries, we need to use internal animosities against each other as our base for nurturing allies.

●       Paid News – The world over, it is a known fact that there exists a scope for planting media stories for a monetary consideration. A few upcoming new channels or established, reputable old ones are vulnerable to poaching of anchors/news readers for a pay packet. Media-planted stories can be used to spread canards to destroy reputations carry out vilification campaigns against the established leadership of Pakistan.

●       Cyber Attacks – This is the field where we, as a nation, can excel. From hacking into the Twitter accounts of Pakistan’s chatterati to military software to bank accounts, everything is in the realm of the possible. A strong cyber cell working under the MoD

with the best Indian brains, dedicated to excelling in their task, can achieve out-of-proportion dividends.

●       International Waters – Our Navy and Coast Guard should, so to speak, always be testing the waters to breach Pakistan’s national waters and constantly pick up fishermen/ small boat owners etc, to needle Pakistan.

●       Unstable Borders – LoC in J&K, IB in Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat and AGPL in Siachen region, should be constantly subject to uncertainty and instability of our choosing by stimulated border skirmishes, air violations by own air force, drone movements, artillery fire assaults, arming Baloch rebels (those who have a Maratha lineage), nudging Afghanistan to create unstable conditions along its borders with Pakistan and feeding Iran in real time about atrocities against Shias in Pakistan. The more the borders remain unstable, the more the Pakistani top military leadership will remain engaged in “dousing bushfires.”

●       Joint Exercises – Conducting joint military exercises with Israel, USA, Russia and Japan close to the Pakistan border as military training is a method to send shivers down the spine of the most battle-hardened General. One can never guess when such an exercise can turn into a limited operation to take out terror leaders/lay a siege to nuclear assets etc.

●       Military Option – The repercussions of provoking the Indian military to strike should be out of proportion to the damage caused. All holding Corps commanders must have the freedom to plan and execute limited operations in their area of influence to maintain the high morale and fighting spirit of troops in that sector.

A centrally planned riposte (AHQ level) should follow at a place of our own choosing, small teams should be equipped with Night Vision Devices and encouraged to cross the borders at will, alignment of LoC should be constantly challenged by our young company commanders and supported by HQs. A small provocation across the border should incite a sledgehammer response from our side. Who asks us to be rational, measured and calibrated in our response? Punishment for each act of aggression/provocation should be asymmetrical since we are five times the land mass and seven times the GDP of Pakistan; we have the right to retaliate with at least five times the force or more.

Our military strategy should be built around the unpredictable, decentralised nature of our response, including pre-emptive strikes to take on suspected terror threats that can cause damage to our nation.

Do you know how dinosaurs went extinct? There is an unsubstantiated theory which goes like this: “Smaller animals started eating them at the feet while they were still alive. A dinosaur was so large that the nervous system sent the pain signal from its foot to its brain in two days. By that time, the smaller animal would have eaten its fill and escaped.” Though this theory may be wrong but the underlying message is clear: We as a nation need to have our response to every challenge/ attack, clear and timely, to avoid the ignominy of eventually being perceived as soft and becoming extinct.

In the form of hybrid warfare imposed on us by Pakistan, this is the way forward to answer for Pakistan’s version of “Death by a Thousand Cuts” (Op Topac). India, as a sovereign nation, reserves the right to utilise one or more, all or some parts of the Quantum Randomization doctrine. Our aim should be to constantly keep their leadership unhinged and guessing on land, sea, air and in space about our next attack, whether in the political or military realm.

PART - II

Design of Battle

Note: This article is the follow-up to Quantum Randomization: Politico - Military Doctrine for India (2017) [Part I]

1.      Military Action - surprise, deception, choice of targets & timing of hits were all well chosen in Op Sindoor. We won that kinetic battle in less than 90 hours.

2.     Economically - the pre-engagement strategy, of keeping the IWT in abeyance, damning/ stopping the flow of Chenab & Ravi, are all measures which needed to have been adopted decades ago ( India being an upper riparian state); these measures will hit Pakistan hard.

3.   Diplomatically - we were able to isolate Pakistan, but none of our so-called allies ( including Russia & Israel ) came out in our open support. The lesson learnt is "aekla chalo" (walk alone, but carry friends & allies when a hand is extended).

4.    Politically - we have a strong & decisive political leadership totally aligned with the pulse of the masses, which does not flinch & gets taken in by the nuclear bluff of Pakistan.

5.      We can sustain a war for a much longer period as we have a vast foreign reserve & a determined Military. What then is the way forward & what is likely to happen as the situation unfolds in the coming days?

6.    There will be a lull between India & Pak for some time. Some internal changes in their PM & COAS may follow. Asim Munir has already been kicked upstairs as Field Marshal with fewer executive powers. For the next 90-100 days, Pakistan will show due diligence in handling the IMF loan.

7.    Pakistan will be planning something big like:

●       Causing internal discord in India.

●       Fomenting trouble from Bangla Desh.

●       Striking at places other than J & K & other states (mainly states conducive to their agenda, eg: West Bengal)

●       (USA + UK + deep state) + Turkiye + Pakistan will try their level best to stop our 8% growth.

8.   Internal Situation (India)

●       Opposition parties will go ballistic in their stance of undermining the Government in power with little or less caution towards public opinion.

●       The Military has to appear like a duck, calm on the surface but paddling (working hard, training, buying better equipment, 'atmanirbhar') below the surface.

●       As a Nation, we should not trust anybody, but develop a keen sense of Shatrubodh.

9.   What the Future Holds - the next engagement will likely occur over the following issues :

●       Deepening water crisis in Pakistan

●       Food & Fuel Supply shortages in the public domain.

●       Growing disenchantment of the public with their political leadership.

●       Baloch, KPK, Sindh & POK issues snapping at the heels of the Pakistani elite ( mainly Punjabi )

●       A desperate attack by Pakistan to settle issues because it in any case is losing on all fronts.

10.    India's Preparation - we as a Nation must continue with our 8% growth rate & muscle up to become the third largest economy. Create leverage with our allies, because none will stand by us if they don't have their own irons in the fire ( their own National interest intertwined with ours ). Keep shoring & upscaling/ upgrading the Military Strength.

11.     Future Wars: Future wars will not necessarily be fought with boots on the ground. The scenario would be :

●       Cyber attacks (hackers) - to nullify communications.

●       Eyes in space (Satellites)    - to detect & prevent enemy deployment & movement, before it occurs.

●       Public disenchantment - with their leaders in Pakistan by creating a divide between the ruling elite ( few) & masses ( large in numbers )

●       Targeted killings - across Pakistan, of important members/ heads of terror organisations by unknown gunmen.

●       Water wars - a very effective tool to bring a large area under drought conditions & cause public unrest in Pakistan.

●       Unstable borders - keep Pakistan unhinged by keeping the Line of Control ( LoC ) & International Border ( IB ) active by small arms firing & artillery fire assaults.

●       Drone swarms - a fighter aircraft is nothing in front of massed drone swarms, say 400-500 in numbers confronting it in the skies.

●       AI/ Robotics - greater innovative use of these technologies in curating the battlefield & information flow.

●       Lasers - large-scale research for optimising lasers as weapons has to be explored. S-400 & missiles are expensive. Lasers can help down drone swarms/ aircraft at a much lower cost.

●       War of narratives - is an "ongoing war with no ceasefire". A Nation that controls or pushes its narrative across all mediums: cyber, electronic, social, print & public debate will rule the perception of the World. Perception matters in calling out the evil designs of our enemy. That is why these seven delegations sent out by us to travel the world & mould perception & control the narrative.

●       Defanging of Nukes - the world realises that Pakistan is an irresponsible country having nuclear bombs. These getting into the hands of Jihadi or rogue elements is what worries everybody. In the near future, either IAEA will step in to oversee & inspect their safety or USA + Israel + India may collaborate in a special forces action to remove these assets (as per Pakistan's claim) & defang Pakistan permanently.

●       In all postures - be proactive & never reactive. Take out terrorists/ inimical forces before they gather & organise themselves.

Conclusion: We are not done with Op Sindoor (it's still ongoing), but are we planning for any future fallout of this cessation of battle? (for some time) India & Pakistan are in a deadly embrace (as geographical neighbours). After so many wars & terror attacks, Pakistan cannot be trusted. They will try to say "let's kiss & make up" (metaphor). India should not fall for this again, as this time it could be the most toxic kiss to avenge repeated humiliation.

PART - III

Tactical Outline

1.   Doctrinal Premise

●       In tactical engagements, predictability is a liability. We have observed & studied this in all battles. The most likely approach is always well guarded. Weapons are laid to maximise attrition along such routes of ingress. To attack along a known approach is to invite sure defeat & is suicidal.

●       QRD asserts: deliberate randomization of options, timings, and vectors that dislocate the enemy’s Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) cycle. When we randomize with understanding & adequate planning, we offset many disadvantages. We escape the Enemy’s OODA Loop; only then are we in a position to curate the battlefield.

●       The “Observer–Observed–Observation” (OOO triad) is deliberately perturbed to collapse the adversary’s situational picture. In Quantum Mechanics & wave/ particle theory, it is emphasised that this phenomenon leads to a situation of ennui. You are there all over at once, in smaller & larger numbers in synchronicity. Para drop behind enemy lines, missile attack, drones, fifth columnists, EW, disruption/ hacking of computers. Posturing to attack in large numbers by amassing troops in a particular sector & attacking somewhere else. Agility, Initiative, Depth & Synchronous attacks across all domains & Forces ( Army, Navy & Air Force).

2.    Core Axioms

●       Uncertainty as a Weapon – Inject ambiguity to overload enemy decision-making. Create confusion, aggravate the fog of war & disrupt the flow of information to vital HQ's.

●       Decentralised Choice – Our own lower formations should be empowered to select among randomized COAs (Courses of Action). Give them pre-assigned multiple courses in keeping with the overall aim, let the local formation Commanders exercise their initiative in tactical manoeuvres.

●       Tempo Randomization – Speed up, slow down, or feint deliberately; avoid linear rhythms. The battle itself should be so curated that we decide the intensity. Break the momentum of the attack to allow the enemy to think he has won. Launch full-scale attacks at a place & time of our own choosing.

●       Signature Variability – Vary movement, communication, and logistic signatures to deny pattern recognition. Allowing the enemy to read your pattern of battle is the worst mistake. Variation & non-linear approach serve the cause better.

●       Probability-weighted Design – Actions are pre-assigned likelihoods (40%, 30%, 20%, 10% = 100%) so units know the spread, but the adversary cannot predict. Build in-built flexibility into your plans. Probability theory has a better chance of succeeding because most likely scenarios have already been war-gamed & adequate reserves catered for.

3.   Tactical Tools

●       Randomized Patrol Routes – AI/ random dice assignment of daily patrol start times, routes, and halts, non-fixed ambush sites, variation in strength & changed locations.

●       Multi-Axis Fireplans – Artillery or UAV strikes chosen from pre-randomized target banks. Targets to be worked out before, grids & locations fed into computers/ tablets/ iPads, on the word "go", punish as per plan. Never punish in series or adjacent locations; always disallow the enemy from reading your pattern.

●       Logistics Shuffle – Convoy timings varied; dummy convoys dispatched. Shorter convoys, moving rapidly as a burst of activity, at odd, non-predictable timings.

●       Electronic Decoys – Randomized radio chatter, radar bursts, or drone swarms. EW will play a major role as communication is heavily dependent on electronics.

●       Command Brief “Dice-Roll” – At tactical H-hour, unit commanders roll for which 2–3 rehearsed options will be executed. Never tie the hands of local/ ground-level Commanders. Give them freedom of action to fit into the overall aim of the battle.

4.   Operational Cycle (QRD Loop)

●       Preparation – Build a bank of 3–4 Course of Actions (COAs) per mission at the Macro level. Courses to be prepared, rehearsed, pre-decided & meant to attain tactical surprise.

●       Assignment – Allocate weighted probabilities to COAs.( in % terms say 10,20,30,40)

●       Execution – At trigger, select action via controlled randomization (algorithmic or analogue). Randomization is meant to confuse the enemy, not your own troops. Use Randomness as a weapon based on algorithms of likely responses by the enemy.

●       Exploitation – Capture adversary disorientation with rapid follow-up. Always keep adequate reserves for exploitation & achieving Aim Plus by units on ground. As far as

possible, try to give on-the-spot reward/ recognition for such acts of daring / bravery which merit attention. Give subtle publicity to encourage.

●       Feedback – After-action review: log enemy’s reaction time, confusion indicators, resource misallocation. Constantly read the battle, study enemy vulnerability & weaknesses, push in troops/ resources to widen a breach in defences.

5.   Metrics of Success

●       Decision Delay: Enemy response time vs baseline. Delays in response time by the enemy may indicate that you have achieved tactical surprise. Keep the enemy guessing & unhinged.

●       Resource Misallocation: Percentage of enemy force deployed against decoys. This would be a battle indicator of your deception plan having succeeded.

●       Surprise Retention: Time until the enemy discerns the real COA. If you keep the enemy guessing on your COA, the battle is already won, as the response by the enemy will be tepid & weak.

●       Force Preservation: Friendly/ Own casualties reduced due to the dislocated enemy. Good Commanders ensure victory with minimum casualties of their own troops.

●       Morale Shock: Psychological indicators—hesitation, hesitation fire, or abandonment of SOP. Mass abandoning of posts, surrenders, white flags, defeatist chatter on the radio sets of the enemy, etc.

6.    Applications

●       Counter-Insurgency (CI): Unpredictable patrols and ambushes break insurgent intelligence cycles. Feed misleading information about your own intent to civilian vendors, contractors or suppliers to your camp. Develop a network of informers, go for pinpoint C&S / Strikes.

●       Conventional Manoeuvre: Randomized axis of advance prevents the enemy from massing fire. Show rehearsals or movement on one axis, switch to another axis on D-Day.

●       Air Ops: Mission packages randomized in size, timing, and ingress route. Achieve suppression of enemy radar, use drone swarms to overwhelm. Use air assets/ platforms to achieve aerial supremacy within 24-48 hours of the commencement of battle.

●       Cyber/ Info: Fake digital signatures and decoy narratives seeded at randomized intervals.

7.     Risks & Safeguards

●       Risk: Friendly confusion → Safeguard: Pre-drill every COA.

●       Risk: Logistic overcomplication → Safeguard: Limit randomization to high-payoff areas (frontline patrols, fireplans).

●       Risk: Higher HQ hesitation → Safeguard: Doctrine to authorise subordinate initiative explicitly.

8.   QRD Motto

“To deny the enemy certainty, to weaponize chance, to seize initiative in chaos”

Colonel PK "Royal" Mehrishi (Retd) donned the military uniform as a young cadet in a Military School at the age of 10 Years. An alumnus of NDA, a Parachutist, and an active Infantry combat leader for 28 years. He is also a prolific writer, a TV Debater, author of books on leadership and a motivational speaker. In addition, he is a Harvard Business School alumnus certified in "Expert Negotiations". He can be reached at his email: pkradventurer61@gmail.com

Feedback & Validation: Post Op Sindoor

Appreciated, you should have been serving to be decorated for this piece of forethought. -Col Pankaj Goel

Excellent Col PK 'Royal' Mehrishi. Such clarity. I am amazed. You wrote this before 2017. Excellent is the best word in my vocabulary to acknowledge your writing. 

Major General Pankaj Saxena ( Assam Regiment )

Brilliant article and you sort of predicted it and the modus operandi thereby . 🙏🙏. Amazing sir 🫡

Mousam Verma ( IT Professional ): England

7- 8 years back, this author knew the answer to India's Pak problem . The solution was publicised by Fauji India Magazine and Victory India Campaign books ,but it took 8 years to implement what he advocated! It was an idea of 2017 whose time came, and was implemented in 2025 Operation Sindoor 👍

Colonel Vinay Dalvi

Editor: Mission Victory India ( MVI )

👏👏Wow.. great fore thought.. it is not astrological knowledge but your sheer brilliance that you could predict it.. really commendable..

Brig CK Ramesh ( Maratha Light Infantry )

Dear Col Royal, your foresight from eight years ago has proven truly remarkable. The accuracy of your prediction reflects both insight and depth of understanding. I deeply appreciate your vision and the value it has brought over time. Proud of you.

Col Vinod Kochhar ( 13 Armoured )

Jai hind sir, very visionary article written 8 yrs back specially the surprise & deception element has been replicated by the Govt.

Lt Col Varun Salathia ( 8 Sikh LI)