Quantum Randomisation: A Politico-Military Doctrine for India

Editor's Note :

This visionary piece was written by the author before 2017 and published by Mission Victory India as part of the volume 4 of the Victory India Campaign titled " Beyond The Victory India Campaign " ( 2018).

It was also published in the January 2017 issue of Fauji India Magazine.

PDF below for reading.

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What was advocated by the author ,Col PK Royal Mehrishi ,way back in 2017 / 18 wasn't probably understood or taken so seriously then ,but Operation Sindoor and its after effects have revealed its critical importance to the armed forces and nation.

The article is now being published by MVI to benefit our keen readers .

All images are representative.

With best wishes,

Col Vinay B Dalvi

Editor, MVI

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1. Since our Independence (1947) we as a nation are often exasperated & sometimes at our wit’s end in adopting measures to deal with a hostile & errant neighbour like Pakistan. We have gone through four wars, achieved decisive victory in all, held 93,000 Prisoners of War after 1971, yet the attacks by way of ceasefire violations & terror proxies continue unabated at the behest of Pakistan. Do we have a national doctrine to respond to the challenges thrown at us? What then is the way forward for the next 20 years?

2. Our basic problem always has been the predictability of our response. Sample the following:

• We have a no first use of nuclear weapon policy

• We are a responsible nuclear power

• We are a professional army who do not commit barbaric acts (like mutilation of a soldier’s body)

• We are a peaceful nation

• In the thousands of years of our national history, we have never attacked another nation nor coveted others’ land or territory

The overall narrative is to speak/posture from a high moral ground with predictable responses and anger & over-the-top exhibition of emotions whenever we are attacked, raucous debates in the media and finally acceptance of casualties as an act of God (karma/kismet/fate).

Is this the response that will get us even a semblance of peace at our borders?

3. The answers to our problems lie in implementing a few principles of Quantum Physics. One of the principle is randomness: “one of the most surprising and (historically, at least) controversial aspects of quantum physics is that it’s impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of a single experiment on a quantum system. When physicists predict the outcome of some experiment, the prediction always takes the form of a probability for finding each of the particular possible outcomes, and comparisons between theory and experiment always involve inferring probability distributions from many repeated experiments”.

4. In all discussions & debates on Military doctrine, we hear of our response “going up the escalatory ladder” (this itself is predictable); no one has ever spoken of a response which could be unpredictable, out of proportion (to punish), asymmetrical or in a geographically tangential landscape. Let me explain: a soldier is martyred in the Poonch sector, our response invariably is to punish Pakistani bunkers or posts along the LoC in & around Poonch or thereabouts. Our aim seems to contain the ceasefire violation by the adversary in the same geographical plane/area.

5. The first of the Indian military doctrines ever thought & tested in an exercise (Op Brasstacks) was the Sundarji doctrine (1984–2004) named after General Krishnaswamy Sundarji, which envisaged seven holding Corps along the borders & three strike Corps (camping in the interiors) to mobilise & render sledgehammer blows to puncture through enemy defence lines & penetrate deep to destroy Pakistan’s fighting capability. This, as we all know by now, came a cropper during Op Parakram, when we took 28 days to mobilise & build up our forces at the border (by then the surprise factor was lost).

6. A direct fallout of the lessons learnt after Op Parakram was the Cold Start doctrine (2004–2014); this doctrine did not require a long period for mobilisation & comprised of eight Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) moving directly from the designated cantonment areas close to the border to cross the border for “shallow gains” (as opposed to Sundarji’s deep strike) so as to have an upper hand at the negotiating table later after the battle got over. Pakistan’s threat of use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) to blunt this offensive has been discussed widely.

7. Since PM Modi took over office on May 26, 2014, there is some talk of the Modi–Doval doctrine (2014–2016) which has some fantasy components; it is more in the realm of imagination than anything in concrete terms for military planning or national security. The Quantum Randomization National Doctrine is a holistic doctrine of politico-military statecraft. The essential components are:

• Economic Measures: Removal of MFN status, curtailing trade, disallowing movement of farm produce from Kashmir to POK, economic sanctions whichever can be enforced.

• Diplomatic Pressure; Isolating Pakistan at every world forum, UN resolutions, sanctions, own permanent seat in UNSC etc.

• Geographical Manipulation: Controlling/damming the flow of rivers from the upper riparian states. Flooding Pakistan when required. Causing smog-like conditions along the borders by artificial means (to be used in conjunction with military operations).

• Leadership Disenchantment: Tailing the top 100 military & political leaders of Pakistan, their bank accounts, assets, properties, children’s education, overseas accounts and planting leaks in the press & media with proofs/evidence to create disenchantment in the masses with their leadership of the day. Creating a divide between the haves & have nots, as there are glaring differences in incomes.

• Electoral Interference: Interfering with the electoral process in Pakistan by funding through state-sponsored hawala route India-sympathetic candidates, their elections to local & national assemblies.

• Cultural Invasion: Briefing the top 20 directors (films/TV) on the need for nationalistic fervour & allowing them artistic freedom to produce movies that project our nation as the promised land of “milk & honey” with great opportunities for leading a good quality of life. Beaming quality serials/programmes across the border & getting the population of Pakistan hooked to watching Indian content.

• Satellite Surveillance: Launching more high resolution satellites to watch over activities in sensitive spots in Pakistan.

• Cultivating Allies: Afghanistan, Iran, USA, UK, Germany, France & Japan are natural allies. Russia needs to be cultivated as a bulwark against China. Out of 56 Islamic countries, we need to use internal animosities against each other as our base for nurturing allies.

• Paid News: The world over, it is a known fact that there exists a scope for planting media stories for monetary consideration. A few upcoming new channels or established reputed old ones are vulnerable to poaching of anchors/news readers for a pay packet. Media-planted stories can be used to spread canards destroy reputations and carry out vilification campaigns against the established leadership of Pakistan.

• Cyber Attacks: This is the field where we as a nation can excel. From hacking into the Twitter accounts of Pakistan’s chatterati to military software to bank accounts, everything is in the realm of the possible. A strong cyber cell working under the MoD with the best Indian brains, dedicated to excel in their task, can achieve out-of-proportion dividends.

• International Waters: Our Navy & Coast Guard, should, so to say, always be testing the waters to breach Pakistan’s national waters & constantly pick up fishermen/small boat owners etc. to needle Pakistan.

• Unstable Borders: The LoC in J&K, the IB in Punjab, Rajasthan & Gujarat & the AGPL in Siachen region should be constantly subject to uncertainty & instability of our choosing by stimulated border skirmishes, air violations by own Air Force, drone movements, artillery fire assaults, arming Baloch rebels (those who have a Maratha lineage), nudging Afghanistan to create unstable conditions along its borders with Pakistan and feeding Iran in real time about atrocities against the Shias in Pakistan. The more the borders remain unstable, the more the Pakistani top military leadership will remain engaged in “dousing bushfires”.

• Joint Exercises: Conducting joint military exercises with Israel, USA, Russia and Japan close to the Pakistan border as military training is a method to send shivers down the spine of the most battle-hardened General. One can never guess when such an exercise can turn into a limited operation to take out terror leaders/lay a siege to nuclear assets, etc.

• Military Option: The repercussion of provoking the Indian military to strike should be out of proportion to the damage caused. All holding Corps commanders must have the freedom to plan & execute limited operations in their area of influence so as to maintain the high morale & fighting spirit of troops in that sector. A centrally planned riposte (AHQ level) should follow at place of own choosing, small teams should be equipped with Night Vision Devices & encouraged to cross the borders at will, alignment of LoC should be constantly challenged by our young company commanders & supported by HQs. A small provocation across the border should incite a sledgehammer response from our side. Who asks us to be rational, measured & calibrated in our response? Punishment for each act of aggression/provocation should be asymmetrical since we are five times the land mass & seven times the GDP of Pakistan; we have the right to retaliate with at least five times the force or more. Our military strategy should be built around an unpredictable, decentralised nature of our response, including pre-emptive strikes to take on suspected terror threats that can cause damage to our nation.

8. Do you know how dinosaurs went extinct? There is an unsubstantiated theory which goes like this, “smaller animals started eating them at the feet while they were still alive. A Dinosaur was so large that the nervous system sent the pain signal from foot to its brain in two days. By that time the smaller animal would have eaten its fill and escaped”. Though this theory may be wrong, the underlying message is clear: we as a nation need to have our response to every challenge/attack, clear & timely, to avoid the ignominy of eventually being perceived as soft & becoming extinct.

9. In the form of hybrid warfare imposed on us by Pakistan, this is the way forward to answer for Pakistan’s version of ‘Death by Thousand Cuts’ (Op Topac). India as a sovereign nation reserves the right to utilise one or more, all or some parts of the Quantum Randomization doctrine. Our aim should be to constantly keep their leadership unhinged & guessing about Land, Sea, Air & Space; about our next attack, whether in the Political or Military realm.