Operation SINDOOR-Aftermath and Beyond

It was indeed heartening to read in the TOI of 19 March 2025, that Operation SINDOOR will not have an ‘expiry date’. Inter alia meaning, this operation will continue, literally and emblematically, in memory of the recent grieving widows of the Pahalgam attack and all the other innocent lives lost to terrorism, ever since cross-border terrorism was employed decades ago by Pakistan as a State policy. 

After the Pahalgam attack, the nation and particularly the Armed Forces (AFs), feel like they have finally emerged out of a claustrophobic vortex of a washing machine, going round and round, chasing their tails, killing terrorist, only for more to emerge. This feeling partially prevailed from a predominant belief for decades, that insurgency in Kashmir was only limited to a few misguided youths. Such a belief was politically expedient, but sadly a myth, which stands exposed now, when we realize that an attack of this finesse on civilians, was so well crafted and planned, that it could not have been orchestrated by the cross-border handlers alone, or controlled on digital devices, as was the case of the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 26 November 2008. This attack needed, not only one or two supporters or Over Ground Workers (OGWs), but a network of them, who facilitated in the details of selecting an appropriate and secluded target for this dastardly attack, for the logistics and most importantly the planned getaway, before the first responders arrived. This attack among other things, was not the handy work of the minions of the cadre, who would be asked to do sensational acts where exit may not be possible. More in the nature of suicide work. This was executed by the experienced leadership and had the stamp of exacerbated indoctrination, all evident from the ethnic profiling carried out on site and the cold-blooded murders that followed. This exposed one fundamental factor, that anti Hindu sentiment & ideology is a deep-rooted malaise that saturates a segment of Pakistan’s populace, which is what really needs to be addressed.  Here one must hasten to add, that on our side, the majority Kashmiri left to themselves, do not want to get into a confrontation with the ‘State,’ or the Armed Forces, knowing that, ultimately the death and destruction is of their young men and women, and not of the Pakistani. The recent exponential developmental progress in the ‘Valley’ is also a major weaning away factor, materially to begin with and ideologically in good time.

Cognizant of this fact, an immediate fallout of the recent massacre, was to rightly get to the source of the incident - intelligence aspects. The agencies and Forces responsible, instantly started doing their job, following the dictum; when things go wrong, look in concentric circles starting with one’s self.  There was no cacophony of blames, heads made to roll, denials or justifications. External calm, but intense internal activity, a fundamental of all intelligence-based work, was set in motion. Sympathisers, OGWs, supporters of whatever hue, were singled out for appropriate actions. They were targeted, rounded up, and a lot of cleansing was resorted to in a systematic, yet in your face manner. This was a first of its kind, when the properties and living abodes of those suspected to be terrorists, or even sympathizes were raised to the ground. There was not a whimper, even from the erstwhile vociferous and deeply sympathetic political class, largely now rendered irrelevant, post abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, or from those who had in the past hyped the idea, that sympathisers are the unfortunate misguided people, wedged between the devil & the deep sea and any action against such innocents, would evoke widespread anti-establishment sentiments. Those days of black flags, wailing women sheltering stone pelting mercenary miscreants in the streets, are dead and gone. Less, because of change of heart, or sympathy for the widows whose sindoors were wiped out, but the knowledge of decisive repercussions under the full weight of the law.

Response by India to Pakistan initiated terrorist attacks, is not something new and has been done in the past, albeit the methodology, the intensity, the wherewithal used this time, has obviously not been repeated.  This time we planned, innovated, executed and timed it to military pragmatism and not to public clamour for immediate kinetic actions. Success, we did achieve in unquestionable terms, notwithstanding Pakistan’s retaliation, which appeared more to assuage domestic sentiments and face saving, than any meaningful military achievements. A notable fact that emerged, was the ability of India to calibrate the response to a much higher degree than ever before and even calling the nuclear bluff, without crossing the threshold of an all-out war. It redefined the fine distinction between a hasty reaction and a well-crafted and purposeful response.

 Leaving aside all the rhetoric that has been going on, even by some vociferous veterans and national security advisers of various media channels, it is important to understand why Operation SINDOOR must continue and in what form could it.

That Operation SINDOOR will continue is not a matter of discussion. At least not among the informed. Yet, for those who seek answers, it lies in the very genesis of Pakistan, morphed into its present construct of a radical Islamist State. It also lies in the very asserted belief of present-day Pakistan, of being the frontline nation against an ever increasingly belligerent and hostile Hindu neighbour. The recent words of the Pakistan Army Chief, FM Asim Munir, that their aspirations, their national ambitions and their ideology are different and the reiteration of the two-nation theory, belies, and puts to rest any notions of Aman Ki Asha, or another Lahore Ki Yatra. Religious beliefs, and that also of the very fanatic kind, do not leave any doubt of what will follow, as long as such people are holding the reins of power in our neighbour.

Accepting this reality, we need to lay bare some home truths, even if they appear politically incorrect. This starts with the acceptance of the fact, that BHARAT is a Hindu majority nation and the world views us as a Hindu nation. Retelling the story of our history, of assimilation of other faiths and religions and that we are secular, or have the world’s second largest Muslim population is stating facts, but does not seem to count for much, particularly in dealing with the convoluted environment of our neighbourhood. We stand alone among others, such as the Confucian, the Christian or the Islamic worlds, to name a few. (Clash of Civilisations revisited). Axiomatically, when the chips are down, religion-based alignments and bonds will assert themselves in more ways than one. The stronger the reaffirmation of India as a powerful country, with a robust and stable democracy, anchored on the popular votes and not necessarily the minority appeased vote bank, the more the radical ideology-based neighbour and a few others, will find legitimacy to help their brother, substantially, including material, financial, intelligence and even seditious support, while the moderates will remain the silent majority.

The second aspect is about the ‘West’ and China. In the fewest of words, both are sitting at the High Table and don’t want another, outsider to join their order.  This therefore places more stress on the dynamics of India’s international relations and makes them rather tenuous. This has profound effects on our war waging capacity, in the increasingly interdependent world. In short, India’s compulsions to develop indigenous capability with enhanced capacity, surges exponentially. Also, as we do so, we will face strong head winds in any efforts to wean away international support from our adversary, while not necessarily garnering much for ourselves.

What form could Operation SINDOOR take in the future and where do we go from here, is what must be engaging the minds of planners now. We have attacked their known proscribed terrorist organisations, camps/HQ & bases. We have attacked selected military targets and have damaged some strategic assets as well. All this put in perspective, is an achievement of no mean proportion and deservedly leads to a ‘feel-good factor’, to put it most modestly. But as amplified earlier, this is not an end and not even a means to an end. Material degradation must and will be recuperated by Pakistan. It will be done in larger measure and with better quality. We also called their nuclear bluff this time and succeeded hands down. But here lies a grave dilemma. In any future conflict of serious magnitude, the Pakistan military could be more trigger happy with the nuclear butto; having been humiliated this time on this score. This is given the fact, that there is little civilian control over the military and it is not presumptuous to believe, that the call to launch will primarily be military.  Add to this, the all too well-known fact of the ongoing extremist indoctrination within the Pak military, presently headed by a fanatic Chief. All this makes for a potent mix towards irrational decision making, based on deep rooted hatred for India, which could lead to jingoistic actions. The question then is, are we closer to Armageddon now, than before we called their nuclear bluff.  Assuming it to be so, India has also made it amply known through deliberate elaboration of our nuclear policy, that any evidence of Pakistan’s mis-adventuring towards even mating their nuclear arsenal and/or delivery systems, could be considered a ‘first strike’ and what will follow will be the second, successive and substantial, if not devastating response. In other words, the gloves are off instant. This is a prudent assertion, considering no other two nuclear powers face such open hostilities and certainly not with such a short response time, to avoid apocalypse. Having seen India’s decisive actions this time, Pakistan will not doubt our intent any longer.  

To borrow a popular cliché often repeated in recent times, ‘climbing up the escalatory ladder’, India will have to find more and differing methods to counter and respond appropriately to future ‘bleeding by a thousand cuts’. Such responses per force, will be full gamut, covering options and actions, including, economic, diplomatic, space, cyber, electromagnetic, ether, to name just a few. It would be wide in scope, yet underpinning a long-held opinion in the context of our sub-continent, that, all out wars may not be a possibility, but conflict, remains a perpetual reality. 

Given these certainties, the question that begs answers is, what can India do, to seriously hurt Pakistan as a nation, so as to compel it into reassessing its approach of State sponsored communal terrorism against India. To deter Pakistan, from its misplaced and oft failed policy of making India bleed by wiping the ‘sindoor’ of many more innocents. Our killing a few Mujahedeen, as they like to call themselves, or destroying one or two camps even in the heartland of Pakistan, will not hurt the establishment. Consequences of any impactful material degradation have been discussed. In other words what next, where the cost benefits of repeating acts of terror become unaffordable for Pakistan and a change is triggered. We need to select methods which will hurt the State and affect the sentiments and opinions of the population. We need actions which have a permanency of effect, both physical and on the collective thinking of the common people, including the fringe, that is spawning the rabid anti India ideology permeating that country.

For a start, we have put the IWT on hold and are toying with many other options. This is a beginning, in making an impactful impression on the psyche of the large majority of the population in the heartland province of Punjab, which are common farmers. For them the prospect of horrendous effects of lack of water on their agricultural land and the concomitant effects on their livelihood, will soon sink in.

In addition, the immediate thought is also to move more actively and decisively towards the Balkanisation and dismemberment of Pakistan, with supportive actions in Baluchistan and Sindh. These being probable and desirable, are more a matter of external actions, not directly in our control and a subject of separate discussions.

Pedestrian and simplistic as it may sound, what remains under our control and achievable, is across our common border and deeper in POK. Options are many where conditions favour swift application of decisive force to gain impactful advantage across the LOC. We have plans which are rehearsed, war gamed and prepared, decades ago. These have been refined over the years. We have the capability to launch meaningful operations not only to improve our posture, which we must be ready to exercise at the very least notice, but also take vital positions and hold onto them for posterity. For want of better words, let’s call it, a ‘Jump Start Doctrine.’

This can be accomplished without worrying too much about international repercussions. Pakistan having thrown the Shimla Agreement to the winds, is a blessing for us. It is Pakistan’s stated stance that the LoC is not a permanent border, but a mere cease fire line. About the China factor, this would in fact hold a mirror to China; of us having done unto their friend, what they anticipated to do unto us- slice off territory. Those considering this as unimaginative and not an effective option against a radical ideology germinated nation like Pakistan, can draw better conclusions from Gaza, Ukraine, Afghanistan, to name a few. Capture and control of territory remains the sine qua non of future negotiations, if any.  Losing territory, is anathema for any self-respecting nation or government to ever tolerate. More so, where the Military has arrogated to itself, the mantle of maintaining the integrity, as the ‘preservator’ of the nation, if not being the conscience keepers. The threat to POK will also be perceived real, not only due to speeches in our parliament, but by such actions. This then emphasises a military reality in our context. That be it a one, or two front, or even full spectrum conflict, the mountains will be the flank of decision and thus, capacity building for this, among other dimensions of warfare, must gain priority and cannot start too soon.

Will such actions result into an all-out war, is what needs to be and can be calibrated, as was recently demonstrated. There is every possibility that Pakistan having received more munitions, equipment, aircraft, missiles, wherewithal to fight a larger war, could escalate the scope and size across the international border. Should such a thing happen, India with its superior conventional military and multidimensional capability, will be better off.  Will China go hot against India, is a subject of considerable debate. Suffice to state, that its collaborative help, with material as well as in the grey-zone, are already existent and evident and have been factored in.

Stepping aside from this for a moment, is it plausible to believe that Pakistan is willing to wage an all-out war to take Kashmir and integrate it with Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). If this were so, it would have happened a long while ago. Therefore, more material degradation or the loss of mujahedeen lives is not enough against Pakistan. But any loss of territory will be unacceptable to them. Thus, the way ahead for us becomes clear. India must prepare to fight a multi-domain conflict, keeping it below the threshold of all-out war, capturing positions of significance and holding them as irreversible. We have the capability, the demonstrated intent and the credible political will. This is where any future hope of abatement of trans- border terrorism lies. If we bleed, so will you, by amputation.