Iran – Israel – USA Conflict : 1 Mar 2026 - Gp Capt TP Srivastava
- Gp Capt TP Srivastava
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
“On assuming office of PM of Israel, Mr Netanyahu said “JCPOA is a horrible agreement. Deal fails to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state. He added Israel will do whatever is necessary, with or without consent from the USA to stop Iran from having a nuclear arsenal. I want to protect against Iran’s aggression and against a regime that openly calls for annihilation of my country”. Now USA is also on board.”
The balloon has finally gone up. The timing of offensive launched by Israel and USA was perhaps decided by two factors, one of which is celestial and the other politico-Strategic. These could be;
· Celestial Factor. We are currently in MOON PHASE, which will enable night strikes by fighters.
· The Politico-Strategic issue. ‘Perhaps’ might be related to PM Modi’s visit to Israel on 25-26 Feb. Israeli PM must have hoped that the visit of one of the most popular world leader just prior to launch of offensive might be in its interest. Such offensives are not launched in a moment. Extensive planning and preparation is required, which must have been done much earlier. Did Israeli PM share his intentions with Indian PM? Did Israeli PM request Trump to wait until Modi’s visit concludes?
Missile Warfare : Lessons for India
Available info on global media as of 1830h IST clearly highlights that Iranian missiles have found Israeli and American targets. In spite of all the noise about so called impregnable Air Defence Systems deployed by USA and Israel, more than few Iranian SAMs have struck vital installations. There is nothing like an ‘Impregnable Air Defence Network’. Most potent and technologically advanced AD Network can/will be breached, always and everytime.
China is an intelligent politico-military power. In spite of USA developing (rather wasting precious resources) supposedly formidable Air Defence Umbrella, the GOLDEN DOME, China has declined to even comment about it. But we have ‘gone to town’ with an imaginary Air Defence Umbrella SUDARSHAN CHAKRA. War and Mythology are two entirely different elements. Hopefully Indian leadership and Military Strategists will see the difference.
Missile strength of Iran is not known to anyone. While as yet type of missiles launched by Iran has not been made public but hitherto unknown Missile Arsenal of Iran might surprise Israel and USA. Will, rather when, Iran launch its claimed anti shipping missiles on US Naval armada, which is now within striking distance. A capital ship disappearing below the waves cannot be ruled out. One MQ-4B has already disappeared. ‘How’ is not known.
Fighter/Bomber Strikes over Iran
Although US F-14s are still available in Iran but will, rather can they be used in offensive role? Extremely unlikely. Hence the current conflict will involve formidable Air Power against a Missile dependent nation.
According to information contained in Janes-All World Air Forces, Iranian Air Defence Network might cause some attrition to strike elements of Israel and USA. Should this happen and the pilot is captured by Iran will be of enormous significance.
Chances of USA deciding to place ‘Boots on Ground’ is virtually NIL. Surely Trump’s advisors must have briefed him about the failed OPERATION EAGLE CLAW, which cost Jimmy Carter his second term. Although Trump is in his second term but mid term elections are due in November.
Likely Outcome
Hazarding a guess about any conflict termination situation is akin to driving on highway blindfolded. But one thing is certain; this skirmish will be different from what happened in June, 2025. Iran did not retaliate. But this time Iran has/will retaliate with massive and formidable response by striking nearly all US bases in the region. In addition Israel will suffer extensive damage. Whether the American-Israel onslaught succeed in destroying nuclear infra structure of Iran is at best doubtful. Iran had foreseen this eventuality, hence decided to built nuclear infra structure deeply embedded in hills. Even the USAF bomber equipped with the heaviest deep penetrator bomb might not succeed.
International pressure will almost certainly be on USA and Israel to stop the offensive. As of now it is a war without a clearly defined military objective. Neither change of regime nor total annihilation of Iranian nuclear facilities spread over large area can be termed as military objective of substance.
Most readers might read these views on .1 March 26 or later and the war might have taken a turn not anticipated by Israel and USA.
After the first gulf war, the heads of the western regimes who ganged up against Saddam, changed. Was it regime changes? Saddam was still in power till they ganged up again for the second gulf war with the sole aim of removing Saddam. Weapons of mass destruction were never found and that was the stated cause. Regime change was successful!