India’s Strategic Focus:- The Shift

Today the Indian media channels are hobnobbing with the Russian and Chinese media. While the USA is sitting back, making observations and remembering Henry Kissinger. To quote, ‘US President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger shortly before the India-Pakistan war in 1971 war that would lead to the birth of Bangladesh. In the tapes, the two are heard talking about former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi shortly after a meeting with her. During the heated conversation, Nixon refers to Mrs Gandhi as an "old witch". Kissinger calls her names and also says unpleasant things about Indians . The tapes also brought to light Nixon's derogatory remarks against Indian women .

That time it was when India was strong willed under an Iron Lady and firm in decapacitating Pakistan as it existed then. The PM Mrs Gandhi, never pretended that US were friends. Infact the the United States supported Pakistan, with President Richard Nixon and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger breaking an arms ban to ensure Pakistan received aid, and dispatching the Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal to intimidate Indian forces.

What did the Russians do? the Soviet Union provided crucial support to India, which included diplomatic backing and the deployment of a nuclear-armed naval fleet to deter the U.S. and U.K. from intervening on Pakistan's behalf. This Soviet action, under the terms of the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, created a credible threat that forced the American and British naval forces to change course, preventing their intervention and ensuring India's decisive victory.

Let’s note China’s role, China supported Pakistan by supplying military hardware and intelligence, but it did not intervene militarily due to internal turmoil following the Lin Biao incident and the threat of Soviet intervention against it. While the People's Republic of China (PRC) strongly supported Pakistan diplomatically and criticized India and the Soviet Union in the UN.

The United Kingdom, as a U.S. ally, supported Pakistan and planned to send a naval force, including the aircraft carrier HMS Eagle, to the Arabian Sea to potentially counter India. This was part of a larger U.S. and UK effort to influence the war's outcome.

So as history has clearly proven that the Russians and Indians share a strategic interest and are the main security providers to Asia in general and South East Asia in specific. Why are we constantly inviting the US to our doorstep. They have the everlasting friendship with Pakistan as proven during Op Sindoor, infact they helped Pakistan win the battle of narratives. The billion dollars in aid, knowing very well that intelligence on Indian aircraft and troop movement was constantly being provided to the Pakistanis by the Chinese. This is one time that Pakistan played the game well. Redirected misdirected faith of the US and exploited the Chinese friendship to the maximum.

Tariff by Trump according to me is a master plan which is brilliant if you look at with a nationalistic paradigm. He is doing it to reduce the debt burden of the US. The US debt burden refers to the national debt, which is the total accumulated borrowing of the federal government, recently exceeding $37 trillion and representing a significant portion of the US economy, with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 120%. This increasing debt level causes rising interest payments, a higher debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the post-World War II era, and concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, potentially approaching levels seen in other countries like Greece.

If the U.S. debt burden isn't reduced, potential consequences include higher interest rates, which increase the cost of government borrowing and crowd out other spending, and a loss of investor confidence, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and potentially threaten U.S. financial stability and the global financial system.

So give it to Trump, he is a businessman after all. All he wants to do is get back the USA that was of yore and not allow them towards the hangman’s noose of not being a financial global power.

Let’s compare US debt to China, China's official national debt-to-GDP ratio was around 77% in 2022, but unofficial estimates suggest the total debt, including local government and state-owned enterprise debt, pushes the figure well over 300% of GDP, making it a significant economic challenge. This hidden or off-balance sheet debt, particularly from local government financing vehicles, has been used to fund infrastructure projects but now poses a risk to China's financial stability.

Russia's national debt-to-GDP ratio was around 20.3% in 2024, with forecasts showing a slight increase to approximately 20.4% in 2025 and continued growth projected to around 27.2% by 2030. This places Russia among the countries with relatively low levels of government debt, a result of previous conservative economic management and high energy prices.

India's government debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to be around 81.3% in 2024 but is expected to decline to approximately 75.8% by 2030. A similar figure from Statista places the national debt-to-GDP ratio at 81.23% in 2023. The Indian Express cites an IMF figure of 80% for 2025, ranking India 31st globally.

So economically Trump is justified in doing what he is doing. The issue is the intangible calculation of at what costs? External trade balances, internal buying capacity, international affairs in upheaval. He is risking it big time, success of his tariff war will make him a historical entity. A failure as a presidential debacle. He is taking the risk due to his dogged confidence.

Is India actually taking a big risk by this change in strategic stance. The PM, after his disillusionment with the way the US is handling India viz a viz Pakistan and the rest of the world. The fallout of Op Sindoor, with the embarrassment of India halting a victorious war due to Trumps intervention, has all added to the 50% tariff war.

Who is the happiest? Ofcourse it’s not China. For the Chinese an ambiguous relationship with India is profitable. On that pretext, he can exploit Pakistan. Build roads, infrastructure, sell military equipment, take over ports and make it completely dependent. While it keeps the border skirmishes with India on, generating political hype which is essential for the Chinese president to stay relevant. The Chinese need a big fish (US) and small fishes (India, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines) to generate psychological narratives.

As for the Russians, they never gave up on the Indians, they know we still are largely dependent on their military hardware and energy. They like the idea of a Russia- China- India relationship. This will help trade, military capability and economically be self sustaining.

I for once am happy, that India has used its brains and not fallen to Bollywood like emotion. Trump ke saath dosti is okay. But what is more relevant is what suits India in the present shift of powers. What come first is our national interests and the US while it serves its own can’t prevail on us to do what doesn’t suit us.

Having said that, we also seriously need to look inwards to our trade and tariff policies. Put in corrective measures and encourage foreign investments. It’s a quid pro quo, a barter system that is workable, resilient and sustainable. We also need to look at our internal taxation systems. It’s almost a axe in the coffin for the salaried class. Tax debited at source, tax when you pay for groceries and goods. Even items that the government considers luxury is taxed.

It’s good to see PM Modi laugh while shaking hands with President Putin. Also the confidence displayed while addressing Xi. But in the long run, remember that the Americans are masters in negotiations and credible in their assertions of holding on to both military and economic powers. The India- Russia- China bonhomie looks good as of now. But between the Russians and the Indians are a Chinese nation that India can’t easily trust and that’s the quintessential problem.

Though I don’t think the tariff approach is going to serve the US beyond a point. Smart businesses will find a work around - it’s already happening in the chemicals sector where business are shipping almost finished products to Europe, doing minor finishing there and then shipping to US. Also the reaction I think stemmed more in India’s case from refusing to reduce tariff on agricultural products which in many ways is the US’ main industry today since a lot of their industrial production is outsourced to Asia. What India will need eventually is to find a way to ring fence in its services sector because we will unfortunately never be a manufacturing powerhouse and that’s shown in the last 2-3 budgets. Without manufacturing growth, chances are we will remain a steady 6% GDP growth economy which we can live with provided our services sector is secure.