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Agniveer and Its Relevance!

By Col Rajinder Kushwaha

Some questions must be answered before one discusses the utility or otherwise of the Agniveer scheme. The first question pertains to the probability of war with Pakistan, China, or even both.  The second question pertains to the likely time frame when it would be thrust upon India? The third question is what would be the scale at which this war would be fought?

 

Is it going to be like border skirmishes as happened in the case of Kargil-99 and Galwan-2020 or it would be an ‘all-out war’ with armies zooming across the Indian borders, like the Bangla Desh war of 1971?

 

If we accept an “all-out war”, then one should be able to define the military and political objectives of the initiator of the war, whether it was China or Pakistan or even both together. Even if it were India, we should be clear as to what we want to achieve ? Along with the defining of objectives, one must take into account that all three of us have nuclear devices and long range delivery systems to cause unacceptable damage to the each other.

 

In the same breath, I would now ask what would be the nature of such a conflict, whether it would be display of brute physical force, in terms of numbers or quantity or it would be a qualitative confrontation with technically superior weaponry.

 

In the above context , let me now address as to what are the main reasons for opposition to the Agniveer scheme? As I understand,  the opposition to is more due to political and social welfare reasons than a real understanding of the probability, nature, and type of war, both in time and space?

 

Political opposition is because of vote bank politics. It stems from those states where the primary occupation of people, after agriculture is soldiering,  mostly in North India, like the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Western UP, Bihar, and so on. Armed forces here are treated as employment agencies. It is the failure of the political leadership of these states to generate adequate job opportunities in their states that most of them join the armed forces as soldiers.

 

What is more worrying them is the burden of providing suitable employment to these released Agniveers, who could potential  social and political headaches for the leadership. They would be more worldly wise and aware of political system because of exposure of four years. Instead of usefully employing them in police or other security agencies, they are more worried about possible threat to their position.

 

The opposition by so called defence experts, like military veterans, is due to their steadfast belief in traditional and conventional concept of war. They still probably believe that soldiers would be physically assaulting and capturing objectives. Some may even think of Hand to hand combat in a future war , which has actually graduated to “Non Contact“ conflict.

 

They fail to understand that “All out war” was no more a preferred mode of conducting war between two “militarily equal” opponents, possessing WsMD.  Ukraine - Russia war is a living example that West / USA cannot intervene because of Putin’s nuclear threat. If Ukraine had nuclear weapons , Could Russia dare invade?  Why go far? What about Kargil -99? What kept India away from crossing the border? What about Galwan 2020? It remained confined to localised action.

 

War is no more “soldiers or tanks monkey dancing” across borders between two militarily equal opponents. They follow the proxy or WOM (war by other means) route. It is no more “Kinetic means” but “Non-kinetic” means which are preferred tools of modern war. Non-kinetic means include covert operations in the hinterland of your adversary. In the international conduct of nations of the modern world, your great friend and ally could be your worst enemy. 

 

Therefore while border skirmishes with China and Pakistan, singly or combined manner could not be ruled out shortly, but an all-out confrontation was only possible if it was a global confrontation—- which might destroy the world. Therefore , they would be avoided. Border skirmishes may be of fire-assault type or even physical assault as happened at Galwan on 15 June 2020.

 

Technology and advanced weaponry would play their part there, too. Drones, missiles, radars, mines, and UGS (Under ground sensors) would play a more better role than physical assaults. Soldiers manning these systems would be preferred to those who are trained to do hand to hand combat. 

 

Another point is that the retirement of 60,000 soldiers every year in India  is proportionately distributed to all arms and services. Assuming that they would be replaced by 60,000 Agniveers, it means they would be distributed equally as per each one’s needs . It is reckoned that an Infantry unit of over 800 soldiers, would get not more than  15-20 Agniveer  every year.  Even if they were deployed on the borders , it does not make much difference to boots on ground and muscle power. Even if they get one year to operate along with other trained soldiers , they would be fully ready to operate in unison with others. Replacement is gradual and not overnight. Veterans have to understand this .  After Kargil-99, it took 21 years for Galwan -20 to happen . War is not fought everyday or year. 

 

Now I come to ingredients of the nature of war. It  is determined by political objectives, military capability,  technological advancement, weaponry range , lethality and accuracy, geopolitical environments , geographical and climatic conditions. In a cumulative manner, they dictate the specific tactics and strategy to be followed. If the objective is to annex territory , then aggressor must weigh its option of sustainability against all odds. Also, it is important to know the bottom line option of your adversary . If adversary is prepared to exercise nuclear option, one has to be cautious .

 

Nuclearisation of the region and the globe, along with rapid advances in Ranges , accuracy and lethality of the weapon systems, the philosophy of war making has been constantly reshaping itself from “non - Contact” to “Invisible”  ways. This transformation has given way to either WOM ( War by Other Means) and PROXY wars ( like Ukraine - Russia or Israel- Hamas).

 

In Indian context , our western adversary chose WOM against India —— it gave a spurt to “ Irregular” warfare, or “sponsored Terrorism”.  India adopted a defensive strategy, which over the last decade or so, it has changed to “controlled aggression”, like Surgical Strikes . Of late , it has changed to “ GHAR MEIN GHUS KE MARNA”(strike within enemy territory).

 

The best way to fight a war is to “keep the war away”. This entails use of other means to engage potential enemies by way of covert operations to cause attrition and infiltrate adversary’s nerve centre of war making machine . This may imply installing a pliable and weak government . Funding insurgent movements , influencing elections and bribing influential people. All this require huge funds not only to run your campaign against your adversary but also to counter your potential adversaries . There are powerful nations who are not happy with your growth and development . They are using covert means to checkmate India. To counter them , India needs to payback in same coin.

 

This can be done by cutting down unproductive expenditure on armed forces. Salary and allowances, along with pension, account for about ₹ 2 -20 trillion now. Agniveer scheme can easily cut it down to half over a period of 10-12 years . This is why Agniveer scheme is relevant .

 

It is better to “keep the War” away by covert means than engaging the enemy in a direct action. Look into the future; stop crying about the glory of the past. The invisible mode of the war demands to win a victory without fighting . This is the acme of Skill what Sun Tzu had said many centuries ago. This is what India’s enemies , both current and potential, are doing in India today. Therefore India should use the deterrence of WsMD on one hand and covertly fight all its enemies. View Agniveer in a wholistic manner, don’t go by emotional affinity of the past .

 

However , Agniveer scheme needs to be extended to 7-8 years with a lump sum of ₹ 30 lacs invested in a pension fund at the rate of interest of 8 % giving a yield of ₹ 2,40,000 annually . Thus,  a monthly pension of ₹ 20,000/- it woukd be a win - win situation for everyone .

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