TACO (‘Trump Always Chickens Out’) -Gp Capt TP Srivastava

Should Trump complete his second term, he will be remembered as the most erratic and unstable POTUS during his current term. First year of his second term has witnessed Trump creating global instability by his announcements on Twitter and/or during his informal chat with the press. List of such announcements is very long. Few ‘outstanding’ decisions cum announcements are;

·        He struck virtually every nation on the globe with his TARIFF WAR only to backtrack repeatedly.

·        He threatened to attack NATO member Denmark and annex Greenland. That too appears to be on back burner.

His such utterances resulted in stock markets crashing, oil prices spiked, rating agencies kept on projecting continuous decline. His personal rating among Americans has touched a new low for a sitting POTUS.

And now the Iran war. Undoubtedly everyone who is anyone in any country agrees that this time yet again Trump bit more than he could chew. There is a stark difference with other erratic decisions. In this case he cannot ‘walk’ back unilaterally. His hostile attitude towards Iran was known to the world when he decided to abrogate the JCPOA, which was signed by his predecessor. Meeting with Iranian officials during past year yielded nothing. Trump decided to accede to the request of Israeli PM Netanyahu to join Israel in war against Iran.

Perhaps Trump himself as well as his advisors, Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War and Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, believed that Iran will collapse within few days because Iran has no Air Power to challenge the combined might of Israeli and US Air Power. Events of first fortnight prove otherwise. Trump failed to take into account Iranian RESOLVE and ability to absorb brutal punishment.

Trump definitely did not realize the difference between an actual war as compared with threatening to go to war (as in case of Greenland) and Tariff War. In latter cases Trump had the option of retracting his actions/words but in case of Iran that option is not available. Hence he is now trying to find a way out by making statements viz ‘The war is VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH’ and ‘War would end SOON, VERY SOON’. Such utterances are certainly due to looming energy crisis world over, an aspect perhaps not taken into account.

No one including Trump himself really have any idea as to how things will pan out in next week or fortnight. Israel and USA must not have considered the fact that Iran will carry out sustained and brutal attacks not only on Israel but also on Arab nations, specially those which host US Military establishments. Considerable damage has been caused to infra structure, both civilian and military, in neighbouring countries.

New Iranian supreme leader, son of slain Ayatollah Khamenini, in his first address, clearly enunciated that;

·        Iran will sustain the war and take REVENGE.

·        All US military establishments from the region must stop functioning.

·        Iran will continue with more missile attacks.

·        Straits of Hormuz will continue to remain closed for traffic unless cleared by Iran.

Iran is upping the ante, which is resulting in exponential increase in economic and political costs for Trump. As per CNN report, USA has already spent nearly twelve billion dollars in the first week of war. Political costs cannot be defined digitally but adverse results might greet Trump during the mid-term elections few months away.

Politico-Economic costs of war might fade into the background when the probable and highly possible nuclear weapon development by Iran. The onslaught on Iran was launched to prevent Iran from going nuclear. Without doubt nuclear facilities in Iran have been severely damaged but not DESTROYED. Iran still has the stock of nearly 400 kg highly enriched Uranium, suitable for producing nuclear weapon/s. While the war rages, Iran might be racing towards producing a nuke; a fair guess. Even if Israel and USA stop the offensive unilaterally the current supreme leader will/may decide to complete the task of his father and focus on producing a nuke. Because he must have realized that possession of nukes, the currency of power, ensures that no one, even a nuclear weapon state, attempts to blackmail a non nuclear nation. North Korean example must be the catalyst to influence his decision to go nuclear.

The war was launched to prevent Iran from going nuclear but it appears that it might become the prime factor in Iran going nuclear. What an irony! That US and Israeli leadership is conscious and worried about this happening is substantiated by the fact that USA is ‘considering’ sending ‘BOOTS’ to Iran to retrieve the 400 kg enriched Uranium containers.

Trump’s pre-war appreciation that internal strife in Iran will help USA and Israel to accomplish a decisive victory by ensuring that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were buried indefinitely, has turned out to be opposite. In fact as the situation is developing, instability in Iran might be detrimental to American/Israeli interests.

America’s most dependable ally Saudi Arab was apparently not in favour of USA joining Israel in its war against Iran. Everyone including Trump has no clue about the ‘END STATE’ of the war. Conflict has not merely hit Iran, Israel and middle eastern countries. It has affected the globe. International civil aviation has been thrown into disarray. Sports persons have had to alter their plans for participating in world events. Energy crisis has entered the kitchens of nations, which had nothing to do with the war. Vital trade route has been affected. Of course the final outcome will be changed/new diplomatic alliances in future.

The 400 kg 60% enriched Uranium is still under Iranian control. While a nuclear weapon might be some distance away but under the circumustances Iran leadership might just use this Uranium to produce RADIOLOGICAL WARHEADS which can be easily fitted in existing missiles. The real consequences of continued escalation will unfold in coming days.

Trump does not have too many options. Trump’s intended regime change is a NO OPTION. The only plausible option appears to be a retreat by calling it victory having accomplished the objective/s knowing fully well that combined might of Israel and USA could not tame the Iranian resolve. In short; USA is unable to protect Israel’s interest. If that happens, Trump might have inadvertently opened the door for China to annex Taiwan.

Trump is caught up in escalation trap with no escape route. Negotiations route is nearly permanently blocked. Strategists at Pentagon and other behind the scene advisors of POTUS have obviously not realized that combined might of AIR and MARITIME POWER alone cannot achieve the objective of REGIME CHANGE. BOOTS ON THE GROUND in terminal phase is an absolute requirement. Failure of sustained air campaign in Korea, Vietnam is a classic example. BOOTS on the ground are a mandatory requirement. Venezuela is the latest example.

It was BOOTS ON THE GROUND that kidnapped Maduro. With every move of increasing the air offensive Trump is losing control of the war. More attacks merely destroy more targets. World is already experiencing ENERGY SHOCK. Economic shock will follow shortly. Iranian hackers are trying to strike the financial institutions. Iran is not likely to reach the BREAKING POINT any time soon. Trump’s dream will remain unfulfilled.