White Elephants in the Pipeline

Ultra Long Range Strike Aircraft (ULRSA), Sudarshan Chakra (BMDS)

“I-5s have it, I-5s have it, I-5s have it (I-5 stands for Intellectually Impoverished Ill Informed Individuals). I-5s are the advisers to powers that be on military matters, specifically weapons procurement and/or development. Any investment in either of the above programme will be a financial drain on economy.”

Development of Indigeneous Platforms

Indian Military has been and continues to be woefully short of indigeneous ‘big ticket’ platforms. A casual glance at the inventory of Indian Military will prove the point beyond reasonable doubt. Indigenous platforms, which are available, are entirely dependent on imported hardware viz weapons (PGMs) for deployment/employment. The most stunning example is non-availability of indigenous carrier borne strike aircraft and other ‘winged’ compliments. While Indian military has two aircraft carriers but no indigenous fighter to make these monstrous and vulnerable platforms war worthy. Indian military is presently using MiG-29K and Rafale-M in near future. Deployability of these platforms under hot war conditions in an offensive role against a nation viz Pakistan, having formidable Air Power elements is not possible. Advent of long range anti-shipping missile has increased vulnerability of the carriers many fold even when deployed on high seas outside operational radii of action of land based strike aircraft.

TEDBF development is still in the files. A news item recently published in media has brought out an extremely vital (read hilarious) aspect about TEDBF. HAL has opined that unless at least 140 TEDBFs are ordered, it will not be a financially viable project. Report further states that order for only 80 carrier borne TEDBFs will be financially unviable. Hence in order to reach figure of 140, 60 TEDBFs of ground based version will also need to be ordered.

But pseudo military strategists having little or no knowledge of Air Power have already started expressing their totally misplaced, operationally unviable and economically suicidal views in public domain. A classic example is an excerpt from an article published in a military glossy magazine of India. The irony is that article/views are authored by a three star having no air power exposure background. Absolute humour in uniform!

Quote from an article published in SP’s MAI;

According to news reports of July 19, 2025, India is developing a stealth bomber, called 'Ultra Long-Range Strike Aircraft' (ULRSA), that would match with America's B-21 'Raider' and Russia's Tu-160 'White Swan' long-range bombers, integrating stealth design, high subsonic speed, and massive payload capacity into a single potent platform. The ULRSA project is reportedly being pursued under a classified long-term programme by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to provide the IAF with deep-penetration capabilities, nuclear strike reach, and conventional bombing roles, matching the capabilities of the world's foremost strategic bombers.

Strategic Bomber

Existing Strategic Bombers Fleets

As on date genuinely operational and truly strategic bomber fleet exists only with USA. Russian and Chinese ‘so called’ strategic bombers are operationally unsuitable to operate in dense ground air defence environment against a heavily defended target. Even the numbers of operationally ‘alive’ bombers with Russia and China are very few. Truly strategic bomber strike was demonstrated recently when USAF B-2 bombers struck Iranian nuclear facility flying a non stop 37 hour mission. Russian and Chinese bombers cannot replicate a similar mission.

Strategic bombers are required to be part of inventory by powers having global aspirations to intervene in other nations affairs located on the other side of the globe. India’s Politico-Military aspirations are focused entirely on ensuring territorial integrity of the nation. India has no intention to interfere in other nations internal affairs by flexing its military muscle built on imported hardware.

India’s main threat emanates from Pakistan, which can be effectively handled by existing Air Power compliments. China (conventional) has no worthwhile operational air power capability while operating from main land China. PLAAF compliments, specially strike elements, operating from Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) will face severe  operational restrictions while operating against Indian targets due to elevation of most airfields in TAR. No PLAAF fighter operating from TAR can reach Indian targets located beyond 750 km from their TAR operating base.

Vulnerability of Strategic Bombers

Aim of this article is not to mention inventories of Strategic bombers held by USA, Russia and China. Aim of this article is to highlight the enormous operational vulnerability that a billion dollar strategic bomber faces/will face while striking a heavily defended target with substantial ECM/ECCM/STEALTH support/capability.

Existing and proposed Chinese ‘strategic’ bombers pose no substantial threat to India. Indeed PLAAF will be able to launch its bombers from mainland China, refuel them over its territory to enable bombers to reach Indian targets (mostly on one way mission).

Chinese bombers can reach Indian targets but are unlikely to return. In any case it is highly unlikely that China (conventional) will try to launch an offensive against India due to two primary reasons; Firstly, entirely due to terrain considerations and Secondly, China’s focus is on unseating USA from numero uno position. China will not risk a battering or even a stalemate during hostilities with India notwithstanding existing border issues. 1962 must be viewed as an exception and not a military defeat.

Chinese intentions not to interfere with Indian affairs with Pakistan is amply clear. China has never supported Pakistan by opening another front during any Indo-Pak war/skirmish. Supplies of weapons is an entirely different issue. India buys nearly its entire weaponry from foreign vendors.

India’s Capability

HAL, the only aviation manufacturing entity of India, is struggling to meet its TEJAS variant commitments. Entire TEJAS programme is heavily dependent on foreign collaboration. India does not have an aero engine. TEJAS variants will be dependent on USA’s GE-404 and 414. Existing friction rather animosity between India and USA does not augur well for TEJAS programme. USA is quite capable of reneging from its commitment to supply the aero engines. Indian military operates large numbers of US platforms for which US support for at least next five decades will be needed.

News of proposed tie up with SAFRON of France to manufacture an aero engine is a good news should it fructify. India needs an aero engine of F-100 reliability, which has been and continues to be corner stone of US Fighters.

While the ill informed strategists have suggested target systems for India’s strategic bombers across the globe but none of them have given a rationale as to why such targets located 12,000 km away will need to be engaged. Merely writing such figures and mention of imaginary targets indicates professional illiteracy.

Existing Indian Platforms

Only operational indigenous Indian platform is FIRST VARIANT of TEJAS, which was inducted with 28 concessions. TEJAS Mk 1A, Mk 2 are in pipeline. AMCA and TEDBF are merely ‘cardboard’ demonstration models.

While simultaneous development of various platforms can be undertaken provided the industry has the wherewithal to manufacture in such large numbers. HAL has so far failed to meet any of its deadlines. NO less than CAS has been categorical that nation cannot depend on HAL. Large scale involvement of private sector will result in reduction of time frame, but only marginally.

Hence to assume or dream that HAL will be able to produce a strategic bomber even by 2060 A.D. is merely day dreaming with eyes wide open. Indeed if the CCS, advised by I-5s gives the approval for thousands of crore of tax payers money allocated for STRATEGIC BOMBER PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, it would be an economic disaster and most of allocated funds will go down the drain.

Bottom Line

India does not need the strategic bomber even if gifted by any nation. We do not have/will not have the technical expertise to support these monsters. May I request the I-5s to consider just one question;”why even a country like USA produced so few Strategic Bombers?”

Sudarshan Chakra

Background

During Independence Day speech of 2025 PM Modi mentioned Sudarshan Chakra. While I listened to entire 103 minute speech but I considered mention of Sudarshan Chakra as an invocation of celestial weapon. Lo and behold next day the news in media reported in great detail about India’s desire to develop a Ballistic Missile Defence System (BMDS).

While discussion of various dysfunctional  existing BMDS was always one of the issues that the air warriors discussed when they had nothing better to do but development of indigeneous BMDS was rarely discussed.

It is important to state that as on date (August 2025) no country in the world has a ‘WAR PROVEN’ BMDS. Star Wars, THAAD, Iron Dome, Patriot now Golden Dome are merely claims. Not one of these systems have ever intercepted an ICBM or MRBM. Patriot was ‘supposedly’ successful in bringing down barely 7% of SCUDS fired by Iraq at a huge cost, which India cannot afford even in 2047. Iron Dome of Israel merely intercepted low trajectory rockets fired by HAMAS. All intercepts DURING TRIALS BY ALL COUNTRIES INCLUDING INDIA till date were highly predictable events and earlier informed tests with launch window and planned target location already known. During war the adversary will not announce that it has/is launching an ICBM/MRBM ‘at this time on this trajectory’ with intended target detail. Even if that was to be announced the chances of a successful intercept during cruise phase are at best 50-50.

Future of Ballistic Missiles

No country will ever launch a multi million dollar ICBM/MRBM with a conventional warhead/s. Every ICBM/MRBM will be carrying nuclear warhead/s. Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology has already been perfected by nearly half a dozen nations including India. Hence an ICBM carrying more than one nuclear warhead/s must be intercepted before the various warheads targeting different targets are deployed during cruise phase. Probability of timely detection, identification as hostile, and successful interception followed by destruction is extremely unlikely. An Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) can INTERCEPT ONLY ONE WARHEAD. Remaining warheads will continue towards their intended targets.

If the nukes are miniaturized, an ICBM/MRBM will probably carry 10 warheads. Hence even if 50% warheads are intercepted remaining warheads will strike the target. BMDS, therefore, will only be able to meet only partial requirement even if each launch of missile from BMDS achieves 100% success.

For the benefit of I-5s and proponents of BMDS, actual views of critics of Golden Dome system are pasted below;

“Critics express deep concern that it could undermine nuclear deterrence, trigger a costly (USA has invested nearly USD 250 Billions since it embarked on STARWARS programme, also called Strategic Defence Initiative but reached nowhere) and dangerous global arms race, violate the outer space treaty by militarizing space, and faces significant hurdles including bureaucratic challenges, immense costs, and questions about technological feasibility and the ethics of space-based weapons.” 

“Critics point to the history of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), or "Star Wars," as an example of an ambitious missile defense system that was never fully realized.” 

Bottom Line

India does not need a BMDS. S-400 acquired from Russia is a Long Range Surface to Air Missile (LRSAM) system and not a truly BMDS in the same class as THAAD. As BMDS performance of S-400 during ongoing war with Ukraine must be examined before jumping to conclusions based on unsubstantiated claims and presumptuous imagination. In any case even THAAD cannot guarantee 100% intercept of a possible nuclear tipped ICBM launched by North Korea. No wonder then that President Trump while meeting South Korean President Lee on 25th August, 2025 heaped praise on North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. USA is mortally scared of North Korean intentions. No wonder then that President Trump unilaterally decided on developing a brand new BMDS named Golden Dome. Let us not join USA in wasting funds. Any investment towards developing indigenous BMDS will be an operational and economic disaster.

Of course HAL shares will rise further.

Conclusion

Advocate of either of the above mentioned proposals must be from the same group, which gloated over the professionally insane and impractical Theatre Command proposal. Their single point agenda is to place in public domain an irrelevant and unwanted idea without having any clue about the pros and cons of the proposal.

Must we insist on committing HARAKIRI!