US Strike on Iranian Nuclear Weapons Facilitiesies

"22nd June is an extremely significant date in the calendar of modern history; second world war in particular. On 22nd June, 1941 Hitler opened Russian front and sealed his fate. Outcome of 2nd world war was not a result of Normandy Landings. It was pre-decided by Hitler’s insane decision to open a nearly dormant Russian front." - Gp Capt TP Srivastava

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On 20th June POTUS Trump announced that he would wait for about two weeks to take the final call on what to do with Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. On 22nd June USA struck FORDOW, NATANZ and ISFHAHAN using B-2 bombers and Tomahawk Cruise Missiles, supposedly causing extensive damage.

Third week of June, 2025 will go down in annals of current global history as one of the most significant period. Two extremely important events, which will/may have global repercussions in near future took place involving USA.

Trump – Munir Meeting

The first event was POTUS Trump invite to Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for a lunch (There are no free lunches) meeting on 18th June, 2025. World media, Indian media and pseudo Indian strategists in particular, went into a tizzy claiming their meeting to be of enormous strategic significance and an anti-India event. In post second world war era no POTUS has ever broken the protocol by inviting a Service Chief of any nation for a one-on-one meeting.

Indian opposition and foreign policy hawks termed it as a total failure of Indian diplomacy because most of them are peeping through the pin hole. Notwithstanding what has emerged about details of ‘supposed’ interaction between Munir and POTUS, I believe the following ‘INSTRUCTIONS/PROMISES’ might have been given by POTUS to Munir;

· Pakistan will refrain from making any offer of its NUKES to Iran for use against Israel.

· Pakistan should refrain from increasing/improving its military acquisitions from China. This will go against the current bonhomie between two nations.

· Pakistan will provide use of operational air bases for USAF, if the need arises.

· Pakistan will cease terrorist operations against India and in return USA will try and influence India not to strike Pakistan again in view of OP SINDOOR still continuing, merely held in abeyance.

· It is highly probable that Trump might have told Munir; ‘Behave or else-----‘.

Therefore “Trump-Munir meeting might cause more harm than advantage to both Munir personally and Pakistan as a nation. Will Pakistan and/or Munir be able to slide its all weather friend China to second position?”

US Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities on 22nd June

The second event was US military strike on Iranian nuclear installations at FORDOW, NATANZ and ISFHAHAN on 21/22nd June night, possibly destroying and/or causing extensive damage.

Both events are bound to have huge implications globally. Will Russia join the war against USA by offering direct support to Iran? What will be Chinese response?

USA never really withdrew from Pakistan even after the (in) famous U-2 disaster on 1st May, 1960. ‘BADABER’, a Pak airfield is still ‘home’ to erstwhile U-2 hangar, probably locked by USA.

While Russia had indicated that any direct US intervention against Iran will/may invite Russian response in favour of Iran. If that happens Iran-Israel conflict might engulf most of the globe.

“By striking Iran nuke facility USA has resorted to an option from which it cannot step back. In doing so USA might have, by default, taken the revenge of Iran taking US Embassy staff as prisoners for over 400 days. Operation Eagle Claw aimed to free the staff failed and cost Carter his presidency. USA under Trump, therefore, cannot afford to fail.”

Indian sub-continent sans US Military

US Military withdrawal from Afghanistan ushered in a new era in Indian sub continent; absence of US Military from sub continent. USA has never lost an opportunity to operate from our backyard ‘Pakistan’. Be it on the pretext of monitoring USSR nuclear and missile programme during cold war era or sending weapons and financial aid ‘through’ Pakistan to Afghan Mujahedin fighting USSR military. USA has always jumped at the opportunity to maintain its presence in Pakistan by placing USAF resources. US Army/Marines have not yet operated from within Pakistan.

USAF in Pakistan

Most notable USAF presence was at ‘BADABER’ air base of PAF near Peshawar operating U-2, the most advanced surveillance aircraft of its era, in fact even today. U-2 operations came to sudden end on 1st May, 1960, when Gary Powers was shot down over USSR and taken prisoner. In spite of 61 years having passed ‘SKUNK WORKS’ hangar at Badaber airbase still remains under lock and key by Americans.

What is, however, not known in public domain that former Pak president Gen Pervez Musharraf allowed USAF operations from Samungli, Shamsi, Dalbandin, Pasni and Jacobabad during the period 2001 to 2014.

While US administration was deliberating on withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was also deliberating (read negotiating) with Pakistan to allow US Military elements to operate from Pakistan territory, PAF bases in particular, keeping in view evolving close ties of Pakistan with China and Russia.

Post Afghanistan Withdrawal Situation

General Kenneth Mckenzie had told US senate that some elements of US military must continue to remain stationed ‘nearby’ Afghanistan. Although McKenzie did not name Pakistan, but he stated “Biden administration is busy consulting several landlocked country’s neighbours to keep Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda militants in check through counter-terrorism operations from ‘OUTSIDE’ Afghanistan”. McKenzie had also advised Pakistan that regrouping/strengthening of Taliban and Al-Qaeda will be detrimental to peace and development in Pakistan. Details of the then telephonic conversation between US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and CoAS of Pak Army are not in public domain yet, however it is inferred that they might have discussed measures to handle situation arising out of US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is pertinent to state that during his first interaction with press after assuming appointment of Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin had made categorical assertion that US-Pakistan relations are important. Ms Kamala Harris had also expressed similar sentiments during her first interview after assuming the charge of VPOTUS.

Options open to Pakistan

Pakistan has, however, categorically denied that it would provide US Military the facilities to operate from Pakistan territory. Significant events have taken place in Pakistan recently. Feverish activity is going on to make Nasirabad airbase (Balochistan) functional. Latest satellite imageries have confirmed the development of Nasirabad airbase. Whether it has been offered to USAF will be known in few months from now. Jacobabad airbase (Sindh) has served as the logistics hub to support US and allied forces since 2001, F-16s in particular. Unconfirmed reports indicate that US reps discussed the issue with Pak authorities at Doha recently.

Pakistan will find it extremely difficult to accede to US request because of extremely close relations with China and developing bonhomie with Russia. It will have to weigh immediate and short term gains vs long term benefits of continued association with China. Cozying up with USA might be viewed by China and Russia as providing ‘EXTRA LEGS’ to US Indo-Pacific strategy. China will be totally averse to such developments. During the Trump era there has been no military to military cooperation between USA and Pakistan. Deft handling would be required by Pakistan government to allow/deny operating base/s to USA. China, Russia and Iran will almost certainly react adversely if US military is allowed to operate from Pak bases. China’s adverse reaction might be in form of discontinuing development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as well as JF-17 and J-35 programme. A closer examination would reveal that China cannot discontinue either programme having invested heavily. However, Pakistan will gain substantially by providing an operating base to USAF. It just might convince/coerce/succeed in USA agreeing to release the blocked sales of weapons and additional F-16s.

USA Deliberations

During Obama administration era, USA had sought India’s views on placing ‘Indian Boots’ in Afghanistan to which India had declined. However developing military equipment sales cleared by USA to India recently might have a hidden cost in long run. With QUAD assuming status of a military association, claims to contrary notwithstanding, US Navy will need a place in IOR for rest, recuperation of personnel and replenishment of ships/submarines. As of now USA is present in Diego Garcia, which is too far to the south.

Will USA be able to convince/coerce India into granting naval facilities for US Navy? If it happens, it will be a landmark strategic event.

Global Situation

International politics is not only strange but unpredictable. Sworn enemies become bosom pals. Till around mid 80s Indian official passports carried a stamp inside the front cover ‘Valid for all countries except Israel and South Africa’. 2025 is different. Likewise Pakistan, the ‘terror factory of the world’ is being wooed by three ‘super powers’ simultaneously, each one having a different agenda in Pakistan; an unthinkable proposition till few years back might become a reality.

Chances of USA succeeding in opening the closed hangar at Badaber air base near Peshawar are not ruled out. Highly fluid and charged international scenario (perhaps) demands India to recast her policy towards allowing US military to have a presence in India. Hopefully India will be able to convince USA not to reopen operations from PAF bases.