THE THRESHOLD & THE VEIL - Brigadier Neil John, SM (R)

Wars are always started when one side of the warring parties think it is now unavoidable or simply come out with a cause that is unilaterally declared as a JUST cause. It doesn’t necessarily need to agree with what is desired literally at the end of war. Many of us in the military know that, war is a well thought out plan to use military means towards a political intention. In the world today it is more like MILITARY MEANS TOWARDS INTERVENTION.

Every army knows it enemies. They work under the worst case scenario, of what can happen, when, by whom and how. They work out contingencies and they have a popular strategy that revolves around ‘THE DESIRED END STATE’. Here to put things in context, the word DESIRED is so ambiguous that it also spells APPROXIMATELY. So if you replace the word DESIRED in the sentence you get THE APPROXIMATE END STATE, now you have a strategy. I say this because war is not definitive. It’s not two sides planning to meet in battle towards a singular defining moment where they can call things off at a point of common achievement and go back to barracks to enjoy a tot of rum and a happy hot meal.

NO PLAN SURVIVES CONTACT this is that sentence in warfare that every military planner is aware and conscious of. The first bullet will dictate, ENEMY RESPONSE SYSTEMS that you can neither calibrate nor control. You might have the best plan in place. But the enemy might choose not to respond to that plan and rather play his own plan, as a countervailing and counter attack method. Completely surprising you and forcing you to rethink and redeploy.

Bringing in the context of the US & Israeli strike on Iran and the killing of the Khomeini. Have the attackers achieved the APPROXIMATE END STATE? What was the aim of the strike. I presume it was REGIME CHANGE. If it was this, then sadly the end state hasn’t arrived. There is far more military and politics to deal with. The system over the last 30 years has been corrupted to an extent of radicalism that the disease is like cancer. While you might think that you destroyed the cancer cells, they would just stay embedded on the quiet to rupture fault lines and exploit vulnerabilities as soon as they sense an opportunity or disconnect. Cause as long as there are radicals, there can be no peace.

For all that have studied the rise of the Khomeini regime. They would realise that these radicals although having been born of a Persian lineage, spent most formative years in India. The family eventually settled in the small town of Kintoor near Lucknow, the capital of Awadh. Infact they used the word Hindi to describe their ancestors. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini's regime replaced the imperial Iranian flag (green-white-red with a Lion and Sun) with a new design in 1980, featuring a stylized red emblem representing the word "Allah" and the phrase "Allahu Akbar" (God is great) 22 times along the borders. The regime (and the subsequent Islamic Republic) transformed Iran’s national anthem from a monarchist anthem ("Long Live our King of Kings") to an ideological one focused on Islamic, revolutionary, and religious themes. The transition occurred in phases, starting with a temporary anthem after the 1979 revolution, followed by the current anthem adopted in 1990. Remember they did things taking a lot of time, slowly and steadily.

So what now? That the Khomeini has been killed? There are many situations that can develop. The worst is that a new radical dictator takes over and plays the wolf in sheep’s clothing. Satisfies the US by proclaiming loudly that he will not pursue nuclear ambitions. Open his facilities to the nuclear inspectors and request for aid. He will also give US the most favoured Nation status and bingo the US has control over his oil. He will as a little extra, reduce Chinese dependencies and use social media to run a narrative of reforms.

While all the time, identifying people, rebel leaders, agents and politicians that worked to assist the US - ISRAEL CAMPAIGN. Slowly and steadily keeping the entire plan under wraps they will terminate these people. Some people in road accidents, some disappear, some slowly poisoned, some drown on a tour, some in an air crash. Till the system is cleaned as per their requirement, while all the time supplementing the radical Islamic ideology with an underground force that is waiting to announce the need of the Iranian people. Manipulating systems, playing the victim card and generating an illusion of a radical need to cleanse the KAFIR ideology.

They will also announce publicly the increased positive rights of women in Iran. Relax the dress code. THE VISIBILITY OF INTENT is what the western world falls for. THE WESTERN EMOTION that’s what I call it, is full of gullible people who take visible dramatics as truth and therefore believe that a serpent can still have fangs but not bite. A scene where women throw of their hijabs and burn their Burqas is great achievement. The new government will be blessed and admired, while all the time they are striking an existential deal with the US.

⁃ NO NUKES

⁃ SHARE IN THE OIL

⁃ LESS CHINA

⁃ NO THREAT TO ISRAEL

HERE THE PEOPLE OF IRAN

MIGHT STILL BE THE COLLATERAL

LETS WAIT & WATCH

-Brigadier Neil John, SM (R)