Operation Sindoor Part- I. 7th to 10th May, 2025

Background

On 22nd April, 2025 terrorists killed 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen in cold blood by shooting them one by one in a resort near Pahalgam.

PM was on an official visit to Saudi Arab. He cut short his visit and returned to India by PM hours on 22nd April.

During past month lot of water has (not) flown down the Indus and other rivers for use by Pakistan after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty of 1960.

India launched a caliberated strike (calling it non escalatory) on nine terrorist locations. Prominent among these were Bahawalpur and Muridke across the IB on 7th May.

Pakistan retaliated by striking military establishments on 8thMay (Op Bunyan Al Marsoos). Indian military responded by striking deep inside Pakistan military establishments.

A call from DGMO of Pakistan military led to further negotiations between two DGMOs, which resulted in temporary truce, still holding as on 25th May.

Major Takeaways from Op Sindoor

Three major takeaways are:

·        Nuclear Bluff of Pakistan has been put to rest.

·        Any Pak aided terrorist strike in future will be treated as an act of war.

·        Myth of effectiveness of drones has been busted beyond reasonable doubt.

Decision Making at the Highest Level

Execution of Op Sindoor highlights the following:

·        It was an outstanding example of combination of Coercive (against Pakistan), Dissuasive (against China, Turkiye and Azerbaijan) and Persuasive diplomacy (globally) practiced by the trio of PM, Foreign Minister and NSA. Such pro-active diplomacy cornered Pakistan with India clearly and unambiguously stating that the act of terror will receive suitable response at time and place of our choosing, always and everytime, Which is exactly what we accomplished in less than 100 hours.

·        I salute the three Service Chiefs for prosecuting the swift war with amazing precision without making any noise. Kudos to your collective wisdom.

·        Finally an Indian Government at the centre has shown moral courage to expand the ‘Capability – Intent’ continuum to its logical end. Indian military has always been capable of suitable response but the ‘INTENT (read WILL POWER)’ was missing. Present governing apparatus decided to cross the rubicon and challenged the ‘Nuclear Bluff’ of Pakistan. India has thus successfully sent the most powerful message not only to Pakistan and its ‘all weather’ friends but also to entire world that terrorism will not be tolerated even if risk of nuclear escalation exists. An outstanding accomplishment indeed! By default India has taken first ‘baby steps’ to discard outdated and idealistic NO FIRST USE policy to ‘NEED BASED FIRST USE’.

·        By default Bangla Desh has been shown its place to behave or else!

Effectiveness of Drones

One of the most important and substantive issue that has emerged is about the effectiveness or otherwise of drones. As per DGAO briefing swarms of Paki drones were destroyed and little or no damage was inflicted. It is only fair to assume that our swarm of drones, if launched, would have met/will meet same fate. It is important for drone warfare protagonists to realize that drones are, at best, a complimentary platforms.

Integrated Air Defence System

Yet again our less than informed defence veterans have gone to town singing virtues of our supposedly impregnable air defence network. Indeed our integrated system has taken quantum leap but during Op Sindoor there were no saturated air strikes, both manned and by SSMs. Hence to assume that we have a near impregnable air defence network might result in total surprise in the event of saturated air strikes supported by active/passive jammers.

Discussing performance of specific air defence platforms is outside the purview of this article because no authentic details are available. Hoping that the much acclaimed S-400 system performed better than it has done during Russia-Ukraine war, data for which is available.

Non Escalatory Strikes

This term was used by the top brass, Foreign Minister downwards. The term is at best amusing because escalation matrix is decided by the adversary which has been subjected to strikes from air/ground/sea and not by the offensive action initiating entity. Hence to repeatedly use the term (including by all DGOs) actually makes a mockery of the offensive action taken assuming that adversary will not respond. In actual what happened was exactly the opposite. Pakistan launched multiple strikes on Indian Military establishments. Hence we must accept that there is no such thing as Non Escalatory Strike.

Water War

Implications of stoppage of supply of water to Pakistan as agreed to under Indus Water Treaty of 1960 will be known sooner than later. Pakistan authorities have already termed it as an act of war. An eminent foreign service officer, who was former ambassador to Pakistan has called it ‘BRAHMASTRA’. As an Indian I wonder why did we not use the ‘BRAHMASTRA’ earlier. Incidentally as per our scriptures ‘BRAHMASTRA’ once launched cannot be recalled. If the same is applied to IWT, Pakistan will have to survive without water from this network and look for an alternative.

Pre-Emptive Nuclear Strike by Pakistan

Indian decision makers have to take a call on whether a ‘Pre-emptive Nuclear Strike’ by Pakistan is possible in the event of similar offensive action by India in future should Pak aided terrorists strike again?

In any case Pakistan has clearly enunciated its stand that stoppage of water is an act of war. Hence we should remain prepared for an offensive action by Pakistan. Pakistan is acutely aware that it cannot match India’s military power conventionally. Hence Pakistan has the option of exercising nuclear option. Present political instability in Pakistan and increasing control of ‘Jihadi’ Military Commanders on governing apparatus is near ideal situation for such actions.

Political Environment

As a nation we have fallen well short of conveying our national resolve to fight our adversary in a united manner. Euphoria of unstinted support from opposition parties evaporated within few days. Example of such anti-national behavior of opposition parties is highlighted by the unseemly and undesirable controversy surrounding the selection of team members deputed to visit various countries to project India’s current and future stand on fighting terror. Controversy over selection of members from opposition parties entrusted for this task could easily have been avoided by a one-on-one contact with leaders of various opposition parties. The din created has actually masked the excellent initiative, although not the first time, by the government.

Contribution of Defence Veterans

One of the most despicable fall out of Op Sindoor has been comments by so called ‘DEFENCE EXPERTS’. From retired Major to Lt General they decided to give their opinion on various TV channels and print media making a mockery of how the war against terror should be prosecuted. Most, rather all of them, were ignorant of facts. In fact few had the audacity to question ‘CEASE FIRE’ option exercised by the government.

Professionally outlandish statements were made, mostly by Army Veterans wearing their service caps tilted at 45 degree angle. These veterans do not know the basics of warfare in spite of having been taught 10 principles of war at NDA itself. One of the unstated principle is to ‘KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT’ and allow those responsible for prosecuting the war to decide and act. On a prominent TV channel two Major Generals literally discussed the war plans as perceived/conceived by them.

Veterans must realize that they have had their innings and must allow those in the chair to take the call. By sharing sensitive info about terrain etc where they operated while in uniform on open TV channel, one is only helping the adversary during near hot war situation. However if one must speak, he/she must confine to his/her domain expertise.

It is a sensitive and controversial issue. Should the veterans not realize that no Defence Secretary or Foreign Secretary appeared on TV advising their counterpart in the chair? Few did appear but after the dust had settled and even they did not advise their successors. Must we not learn the lesson? Express views during peace time on macro issues viz procurement, nuclear strategy etc.

It is ironical that none of these veterans touted the virtues of proposed professionally insane proposal of Theatre Commands. Integration works only when principle of ‘MUTUAL INTER-DEPENDENCE’ is adhered to. All of them individually and collectively failed to highlight the excellent co-ordination among three services.

Almost all of them failed to highlight offensive actions initiated by silent service; Indian Navy.  Their ‘Threat in Being’ posture put Pakistan in a dock. Obviously none of the veterans had/have any clue as to how warfare is executed on high seas, hundreds of miles away from the shores, where noise of booming guns and exploding missiles cannot be heard. I salute the ‘SILENT’ service.

Contribution of Media

Indian media, BOTH PRINT and TV, is not only ignorant but also rotten since its sole objective is to attain higher TRP; National Security be damned. Unfortunately defence veterans have contributed immensely towards this undesirable anti-national act. Only two examples would suffice;

·        A prominent English daily published an article written by former DCoAS few days after terror strike that ‘INDIA SHOULD NOT GO TO WAR WITH PAKISTAN’.

·        A video clip appearing on a prominent video channel available for free viewing has even sent one of the two women spokesperson (who were part of Ist briefing on Op Sindoor along with Foreign secretary) in a Rafale cockpit to strike Pakistan air bases.

Use of Official Information

Nation was given comprehensive briefing by the three Director Generals from time to time. Media and self proclaimed defence experts used that information during their cacaphonic debates lacking any substance.

One such example is mention by nearly all defence experts that we destroyed 11 PAF bases. We merely struck 11 PAF bases once only. An airbase cannot be destroyed and rendered non operational with one or for that matter by multiple strikes by a PGM. Indeed if the PGM struck a hangar having aircraft, the aircraft will be destroyed.

Civilian Response to Terrorists Attack

It is a sensitive subject and any comments might be viewed as controversial by many. During 9/11 terror attack in USA the fourth aircraft was supposed to crash into White House. But it crashed near Pensylvania because the passengers decided to challenge the hijackers and in ensuing fight the aircraft crashed. In the instant case too, there was at least one person (the pony wala), who challenged the terrorists but was killed. Near identical incident took place in Bhatinda nearly 30 years ago.

But there has not been a single instance wherein civilians have decided to storm the few terrorists. Security forces cannot be omni present. Terror attack (Pahalgam Type) has to be handled by only those, who are threatened. Outcome might be same in either case but in case one challenged and died, it would be far more graceful death.

Our media refuses to even utter a single word on this issue.

Prognosis

Future will continue to remain and maintain status of uneasy peace. Control of Nuclear weapons in Pakistan will definitely be reviewed by USA. India will have to review its capability to sustain a long drawn out war even on a single front. Less than 100 hours war should not lull us into complacency. Weapons, PGMs in particular, need to be stored in large numbers. During Op Desert Storm 37 nations consumed their entire stockpile of cruise missiles during 43 day war (17th January 1991 - 28th February 1991).

Op Sindoor has, hopefully, forced the decision makers to review our weapons procurement. Next outing may not last for hours; it might last for days/weeks.

Pakistan establishment has already clearly stated that stoppage of water by India is an act of war. Hence we have witnessed only part I of Op Sindoor.