Operation Sindoor On Pause: Has Pakistan Been Checkmated For Good, Or, Is It a Lull Before a Mega-Storm?

It has been an action-packed week from 7th to 14thMay, which culminated in more questions left unanswered than only a PAUSE in Operation SINDOOR. After the retributive strikes of 7th May by Indian defence forces on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), Pakistan had unashamedly and continuously launched drones, tactical missiles, artillery and mortar shells attacking primarily civilian and military targets all along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) from J&K to Sir Creek.

As per the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) briefings and press releases, Pakistani misadventures were appropriately responded with due caution of proportionality and being non-escalatory, without causing significant collateral damages or casualties to innocent Pakistani citizens. Even when Pakistan dared to provoke Indian forces by flying civilian commercial flights in the restricted flying corridors dangerously close to IB, thereby attempting to lure Indian counter-action on civilian targets, Indian defence forces had constantly exercised a responsible restraint. The tit-for-tat continued on ground.

On the night of 9th – 10th May, Indian defence forces carried out precise but decisive air and missile assaults on Pakistani ground-based air assets and air defence capabilities, as explained in detail during the tri-service MoD press briefing in the morning of   10thMay. Thereafter, during the day of 10th May, something happened and the Operation SINDOOR was stated to be paused from 1700 hours onwards. Though Pakistan violated this understanding later in the night and were appropriately responded, guns have generally remained silent on both sides since 11th May. Our Prime Minister (PM) addressed the nation on 12th May and visited the Adampur Air Force Station on 13th May to not only congratulate the warriors but also to convey to the world that the Air Force Base Adampur and its strategic assets were fully intact.

Further, all attempts of Pakistani civilian and military leadership to spread misinformation have been thwarted with irrefutable facts, technical evidence and satellite imagery presented by the Indians. The false and misrepresentative claims of Pakistani Air Force to have destroyed 1 MIG29, 1SU30, 3Raffaels, 1UAV as well as the S400 Air Defence Missile system and Adampur Air Force Station were put to rest during the joint tri-service briefing of MoD as well as visit of the PM to Adampur Air base and the display of the stated assets in the backdrop of his address. On their side, Pakistani press briefings were conducted more with hollow words and verbal rhetoric without any electronic or technical evidence of their claims.

The issue at hand is the Sudden Pause in operations, and same raises few questions which need to be answered.

● What could be the reasons for the operations to have been suddenly PAUSED, when India was at the peak of its moral and military ascendency over the adversary?

● What could be the reasons for Pakistan senior military leadership attending funerals of slain terrorists in military uniform and why the slain terrorists were accorded State funeral ?

● What next for India, in the light of its Stated Policy of ZERO TOLERANCE for terror acts emanating from across the border?

🡺 Cause for PAUSE. ​As per the MoD and MEA press briefings, two official reasons have been acknowledged by India. Firstly, the achievement of pre-decided military objectives of sizeable destruction of terror infrastructure across the IB and LoC, and the politico-psychological messaging was conveyed that, should an adverse terror situation be created by Pakistan in future, India retains the capacity and capability to strike anywhere in Pakistan with impunity. Secondly, it was because the Pakistan DGMO had approached the Indian counterpart, requesting that Pakistan will not indulge in any sort of terror activities or military audacity further, and requested Indian military to stop the fire assaults. Thus, having achieved its primary objectives, India readily acceded to this request, albeit with conditions to only temporarily suspend the operations and the same would recommence if faced with similar hostilities from across. So, as per MoD, the operations were paused.

Contrary to same, the Pakistani disinformation machinery, including its DG ISPR, states that the Indians having suffered unacceptable losses, went to the US requesting for mediation and ceasefire and it was because of US efforts that the ongoing operations had been stopped.

Further, this sudden unilateral acceptance of pause in operations by India, from a clear position of advantage, has disturbed quite a few in our country. Some are even equating this with the historic Simla Accord and resultant unilateral return of 93000 Pakistani prisoners at the end of 1971 war, without leveraging same for permanent settlement of issue of Kashmir.

Still further, the various Indian and global defence experts, with credible experience and cogent analysis of facts as emerging, are speculating on the various news and social media platforms for a different reason for same. They speculate that, consequent to precision missile strikes at appropriately selected targets within Pakistan, leading to its sudden nuclear defanging, India accepted the Pakistan offer of halting the operations. The US President has further fuelled this speculative controversy, by stating that the ceasefire initiative of US officials has ended up saving millions of lives on both sides of the border. The Indian as well as Pakistani authorities have categorically denied all such social-media claims. Here, the statement of our Prime Minister, in his 12th May address to the nation gains traction and relevance. He has categorically stated that “India will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail. India will strike precisely and decisively at the terrorist hideouts developing under the cover of nuclear blackmail”. Such a strong message, from the highest leadership of the country, is good enough for gifted to read between the lines. So, the truth lies hidden somewhere in between, and best is, it should remain so. Here, I am reminded of the first Rule of Command... INFORMATION TO BE SHARED ON NEED-TO-KNOW BASIS ... it is explained as such that, If one is not considered appropriate to know the reasons for the decisions taken by the superiors, AND the superior has explicitly ensured control of the passage of such information, then the subordinates are duty bound to have FAITH in the decision making capacity of the superiors AND should follow the orders/directions/instruction without any  doubt or circumspection. It further dwells upon the subordinate leadership to tactfully handle the charged-up emotions of their respective subordinate command. I think same is applicable in equal measures in the civil domain as well. The latest update based on IAEA report confirms the fact that no leakage of nuclear radiation has taken place within Pakistan. So, the issue may be considered settled for the time being.

🡺 Senior Pakistani Military Officers attending terrorists funeral in Military Uniform and slain terrorists accorded full state honours.    Pakistani senior military officers of Lt Gen rank and police officers of IG rank attending funerals of slain terrorists in military uniform raises few very pertinent questions.

● Were the dead terrorists actually uniformed military personnel or soldiers of Army? If they were indeed soldiers, then, what were they doing at these terror universities?

● And, if they were not uniformed personnel, then why was the Pakistani military leadership conferring state military funeral to these terrorists, with Pakistani military personnel attending funeral in military uniform and according guard of honour?

Circumstantial evidence proves beyond reasonable doubts that these were indeed slain terrorists. So, the question remained

● What was the compulsion for the senior military personal to attend funeral in uniform?

Because, all along for past decades, Pakistan had been claiming these terrorists to be non-state actorsor home grown jihadis, and, yet attending their funeral in uniform and according them State funeral actually dents that claim.

● What prompted the Military leadership to take such an overt action?

In my opinion, only two plausible reasons emerge for such an overt act of visible fusion of Pakistan State Actors with the erstwhile stated non-state actors. First reason could be that, the absence of any Pakistani army / PAF response in defence or rescue of JEM /LeT terror infrastructure, when their terror universities, especially at Bhawahalpur and Muridke, were being hit with precision and demolished with impunity by Indian defence forces, had actually dented their faith in the Pakistani military establishment. So, in the light of strong, unopposed Indian Air, missile and drone strikes at these terror universities, with no counter or defensive action by Pakistani military, JeM and LeT leadership compelled Pakistani military leadership to come out in open support and to prove their solidarity with their cause in an overt manner, with a threat of turning rogue against them.

Second reason could be that Pakistani establishment wished to make a voluntary statement for international community, with a presumed immunity from resultant implication of being involved directly in terror acts. The Pakistan establishment seems confident of no retribution by world community even if the Pakistan State, its military and its terrorist outfits stand overtly fused together, visible to whole world.

The possibility of combination of both the reasons too cannot be ignored. The second reason gains definite traction, because, inspite of this clear visibility of overt fusion of State and Non-State Actors in Pakistan (safely changing the country’s name to ‘Terroristan’), there was the reaction / response of ABSOLUTE SILENCE from the world leaders on this overt gesture, even when this fact had been repeatedly highlighted by India through the MoD and MEA briefings, as well as explicitly referred to in the PM address to nation on 12th May. To this date, no one has questioned Pakistan for such a behaviour or sought their reasons for same. Surprisingly, there has been no condemning statement from any quarter of world fora, be it the UN or the US/UK/Australia or any other nation, on this overt and blatantly cosy behaviour of Pakistan military towards the terrorists, who, on number of occasions have been provenly involved in killing not only Indians but other nationalities as well (especially during 26/11 Mumbai terror attack, 9/11 US terror attack or London tube bombing or on other similar occasions).

To the contrary, Turkey and Azerbaijan continued to provide military hardware and political support to Pakistan in its nefarious designs.

To add insult to injury, with total disregard to Indian sensitivity to such an overt display of ‘Unity of Terror’, the IMF continued with its grant of bailout package for Pakistan.

So, the fact emerges that the major world powers and their cohorts are not bothered at all if the Pakistani civil and military establishments are totally enmeshed with their terrorists’ stooges and all three speak the same language.

🡺 What next for India.​In the light of the fact that Pakistan is an overt terrorist state, sheltering and nurturing terrorist for long, and, though the terror infrastructure has been severely dented, the terror leadership of JeM, LeT and HM is yet to be demolished and uprooted, it becomes incumbent on India to take certain immediate and short-term actions. We shouldn’t forget that Moulana Masood Azar, the JeM mastermind who lost ten of his family members and four of his faithfuls in Indian missile strikes, has taken pledge to retaliate and take revenge for loss of his kins. LeT leadership is no different either. Therefore, following merits utmost attention.

● Militarily, no lowering of guard. As it is, Op SINDOOR is only paused and not yet culminated. The Air Defence grid and the anti-infiltration grid all along the IB and LoC needs to be kept active and vibrant. Though, because of stated policy of retribution by India in face of any direct terror action from Pakistani soil, Pakistan may defer any short-term infiltration attempt. But same cannot be said about the LeT / JeM leadership and cadres, who may be thinking otherwise. It shouldn’t surprise us if they defy their own masters and attempt infiltration on their own.

Moreso, Pakistan may attempt causing coherent terror trouble in the Indian hinterland by encouraging the overt-opportunists and activating its sleeper cells within India to do so. That clearly gives decisive advantage to Pakistan to claim it to be a home-grown trouble within India and can simply wash off its hand.  Further, in this context, the enhanced fool-proof management of the maritime coastline of India as well as borders with Nepal and Bangladesh gain special importance to thwart any attempt to reach Indian heartland through other means.  The Indian military leadership may already be ceased of such challenges and counter measures may already be in place.

● Civil-Defence Measures.​   The momentum gained due to Op SINDOOR related civil-defence measures, which gained traction by application of ‘Wholesomeness of Governance’ initiative during last few weeks, must continue in right earnest. All the ministries and departments, both, at Centre and States, must continue their synergised efforts towards the cause as highlighted by the PM. The regular periodic civil-defence drills and actions at District and State level must be conducted with due diligence.

● IWT held in abeyance. The reasons and implications of the stated Indian policy of ‘blood and water not flowing together’ must be made known to the general populace of Pakistan by all means. The general public in Pakistan must be made to understand that it is because of their nature of being a terror-state, run by terror-military and terror-government, they shall be suffering and therefore they must exercise their democratic right to seek accountability of those who rule them and thus install a more democratic government. The fact of irregular control of flow of water in the western and eastern rivers and its implication must be well understood by the masses of Pakistan, especially in Punjab province. This demographic implosion in Pakistan must gain the status of inevitability.

● Expose Pakistan Internationally.​Notwithstanding the release of the IMF bailout package for Pakistan, an all-out diplomatic effort at all international fora is needed, including the UNSC 1267 Sanctions Committee monitoring team about the terrorist activities of the terror group The Resistance Force (TRF) and seek their inclusion in the list of Global Terror groups.

● Voluntary Trade and Business restrictions on ‘Friends’ of Enemy.​Turkey and Azerbaijan, besides others, must be made to realise that directly supporting Pakistani war-waging efforts, in its support to terror, will be seen as an affront, thus definitely having negative impact on their direct business and trade with India. The Indian public has already commenced showing their dissonance for these countries by boycotting their destinations and goods and the signals of same are already visible on ground.

● Demographic Faultline in Pakistan. Op SINDOOR opens up an opportunity to expose the oppressive nature of policies of Pakistani central government towards the peripheral provinces, be it the Khaiber Pakhtunwa, Baluchistan and Sindh in Pakistan, or Gilgit-Baltistan in PoJK. The same can be morally supported by the people of India and help create a global influence or pressure for change or reforms.

The end of terror, exported by Pakistan, has already began. It needs to be globally understood that the unequivocal drawing of red lines for the terror-state of Pakistan by our Prime Minister is the new normal. Now, its relentless execution remains the only answer. Further, the ball is in the court of the People of Pakistan to realise the true nefarious designs of their politico-military-terrorist nexus leadership. The people of Pakistan must make all out efforts to set their homes right. Because, if the stated lines are violated again by this despicable nexus, then the prudence may not give another opportunity to the People of Pakistan and their doom is assured.

---

Note:- "This article was first published by Hindi National Daily Amar Ujala (Hindi translation) and now republished by MVI in its original English version with permission of the author."