Nuclear Proliferation

Geo-strategic Scenario

Rapidly changing global scenario with Indo-Pak skirmish of less than 100 hours (7th-10th May, 2025) being the latest flash point and China’s open support to Pakistan directly, which supports terrorism as a mode of state policy. China is unable to differentiate between its support to Pakistan and its support to terror as state policy. This is clearly and unambiguously enunciated by Chinese refusal to include known terrorists operating from Pakistan as international terrorists during UNSC meeting held recently.

China directly supports North Korea and Pakistan (both are nuclear weapon states) as its two arms; one pitted against USA and the other against India. Chinese support to Pak and North Korean nuclear programme is well known. Continued Chinese belligerence is leading towards accelerating the pace of nuclear proliferation. Globally the realization has dawned that nukes are and can be effectively used as most potent currency of power/deterrence.

China’s open support to Pakistan in the context of suspension of IWT by India has emboldened Pak authorities to clearly convey that use of nukes against India cannot be ruled out. Explicit statements of Pak Defence Minister Khwaja Asif and General Mirza, chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff unequivocally suggest that use of nukes will remain an active option.

Iran is but few ‘baby steps’ away from becoming a nuclear weapon state. Failure of ongoing talks with USA on Iran’s nuclear programme might force Iran to cross the red line. China has very strong trade links with Iran and would be only too happy to see Iran go nuclear and alter balance of power in middle east.

With China set to match/overtake US economy by 2035 A.D. geo-strategic scenario, specifically the ‘world power centre’ is likely to change. Most ardent supporters of Karl Marx propagated communism had never dared to predict that by middle of 21st century capitalist domination of world affairs will have to face a serious challenge for numero uno position and that too from an impoverished communist nation barely 50 years back; China.

USA as a Catalyst of Chinese Growth

USA must accept the entire responsibility/blame for virtually forcing China to get her act together as a nation state. US warning to China about possible use of nukes during Korean war stirred the middle kingdom’s self esteem and China as a nation vowed never to be blackmailed in future. China exploded her first nuclear device on 16th October, 1964. China’s belligerence in recent times is not only confined to India but also towards nations, which are at the rim of South China Sea.

China is investing heavily towards upgrading their nuclear warhead and launch vehicle capability to match USA and Russia. While it is not yet known if China has achieved a breakthrough in production of miniaturized nukes. If and when that happens, Chinese MIRVed capability will take a quantum leap.

Ongoing tariff war with USA may not reach a settlement in near future, acceptable to both nations. Chinese share of global manufacturing is around 30% (India about 3%). World’s lowest labour cost will continue to increase Chinese share in global manufacturing. Notwithstanding the open animosity with China, India cannot afford to break trade from China in foreseeable future.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Concept of nuclear non-proliferation emanated from the belief that large number of nuclear weapon states will pose more threat and lead to global instability. Hence NPT came into being. Military alliances viz NATO and Wasaw Pact assured member states that they will be provided protection from an improbable nuclear strike. Radical change in US policy during Trump’s 2nd term in which USA has clearly proposed/suggested discontinuance of US support to NATO unless each member nation contributes at least 2% of their respective GDP to NATO, which provides collective security to EU nations and few others.

US administration decision has forced non nuclear nations exploring the possibility of acquiring nukes. Germany has openly questioned if France and UK will assure Germany of protection against nuclear strike. Japan and South Korea are also facing the same dilemma.

China’s Belligerence

China’s belligerence and open challenge to existing world order was changed irreversibly, when China declared the entire air space over and around South China Sea as an Air Defence Identification Zone under Chinese control. This issue has been largely glossed over by military strategists but it is of enormous significance because declaration of ADIZ empowers China to take offensive action including shooting down any aircraft/UAV/Missile flying into ADIZ. US bombers continue to make the transgressions, which China calls as illegal.

From a bi-polar world of cold war era, dismemberment of USSR resulting in a uni-polar world has been challenged in less than quarter century. China has emerged as a befitting challenger to USA supremacy, both militarily as well as economically. China has surpassed USA in the field of ‘strategic buying’ of impoverished nations by successfully implementing concept of ‘Debt Tap diplomacy’. USA failed to even take control of Cuba with all the financial muscle supported by unchallenged military power. China on the other hand developed the military muscle but chose a more sophisticated method of Debt Trap Diplomacy to trap numerous nations across the globe in her inescapable financial tentacles.

Comparison of Chinese and US Military Capability

At present and even in foreseeable future China cannot match USA supremacy as vastly superior maritime power. Chinese Navy of 2023 can at best be termed as a ‘Green Navy’ capable of looking after its maritime boundaries and South China Sea as long as US carriers are not sailing there. China is at least two/three decades away from catching up with US Navy built around a dozen super carriers and huge fleet of nuke capable submarines. But in all other fields China will match USA within two decades. However Blue Water Chinese Navy is a distant dream.

Chinese aviation industry is taking giant leaps but is miles behind USA in field of force multipliers, surveillance platforms and PGMs. However Chinese growth in space at an astounding pace will enable China to match the best in the world. Sino-Russian collaboration will, almost certainly, assist China in challenging US capabilities.

India’s Emergence

India is already a nuclear power but cannot be called a US ally in spite of having signed four agreements broadly related to security with BECA being the latest agreement. USA will be looking for a ‘permanent’ ally. Keeping in view the stark reality that ‘bete-noire’ for USA, North Korea has and will continue to have the backing of China in foreseeable future, USA needs a nuclear weapon state as an ally in Asia. Pakistan is not only too far away from China but also will not support USA against China. That leaves only two nations in the proximity; South Korea and Japan. Any attempt to nuclearise South Korea will invite instant reaction from North Korea, a risk USA cannot take. That leaves Japan as the only option.

Japan as a Nuclear Weapon State

Will Japan agree/opt to go nuclear? Asking this question to a Japanese might have been akin to a sacrilege few years back, but it is no longer an untouchable option. China-Japan animosity over few island territories is a burning issue between them. China’s aversion to existence of Taiwan as an independent nation is only too well known. However Chinese expansionist design in South China Sea and unilaterally drawing up Nine/Ten Dash line declaring the entire area as Chinese is not acceptable to Japan.

Japan cannot match China militarily unless Japan exercise the nuclear option. A nuclear Japan will change the security matrix not only in Asia but in the entire globe virtually overnight. Chinese offensive posturing based on its nuclear arsenal and financial muscle would no longer be capable of posing the current level degree of threat. In fact a nuclear capable Japan will be able to pose the most potent threat to soft underbelly of China. China will be forced rather coerced into revisiting her nuclear doctrine, expansionist design and policy of debt trap diplomacy. ‘No First Use’ is the currently ‘stated’ policy of China wrt Nukes. But with a nuclear capable Japan, Chinese nuclear doctrine might have to be altered to ‘LAUNCH ON DETECTION’.

China of 21st century is governed by intelligent persons with deep foresight, therefore, China is unlikely to provoke/take any action, which will/may provoke Japan. However China will continue to pose a ‘proxy’ threat to Japan through North Korea’s offensive actions from time to time as has already happened in recent times. Japan, therefore, would/may exercise the nuclear option to silence North Korea thus achieving twin objectives of not only neutralizing North Korea but also silencing North Korean regime, both present and future.

Japan is technologically capable of producing a nuke, if it decides. At present at least 25% electricity produced in Japan is by nuclear reactors. Building centrifuge assembly to enrich Uranium is well within its capability. Japan’s space programme is world class, hence delivery vehicles are already available. In any case to target China, Japan needs a MRBM capability only. Japan’s Air Force is world class. With impending acquisition of F-35s in large numbers, Japan will be capable of delivering nukes by aircraft as well. Japan does not need the third component of triad; nuke capable submarines because of geography and her position on the globe vis-à-vis China. Although not yet recognized, Japan has an aircraft carrier as well or at least the technology/expertise to build one.

Let us now examine what will Japanese nuclear deterrent look like? Japan is not required to invest in classic nuclear ‘TRIAD’. In fact with Japanese expertise in miniaturizing virtually everything and extremely high degree of sophistication achieved in electronics, Japan just might become the first nuclear weapon capable state to possess ‘Drone Mounted Nuclear Weapon Delivery System’.

Land based nuclear tipped missiles with a ten kiloton warhead could be based in any of numerous Japanese islands, particularly in northern Japan. If Japan opts for introducing MIRVed MRBMs, Japanese nuclear threat will be even more potent. However land based missiles in silos are easy target because their positions are known to adversary. A mobile trailer mounted MRBM has greater chance of survivability. Japan is already developing a sixth generation fighter, which will decidedly be a nuclear weapon delivery capable machine.

As of now Japan does not have nuclear warhead development/production expertise. Surely USA could be asked to provide the necessary help, a highly probable and possible option. If USA genuinely desired to threaten China’s underbelly, it could be achieved by making Japan partner in Ohio Replacement Programme. The decommissioned ‘boats’ of US Navy will still be an operationally viable option, which could be transferred to Japanese Navy. Such transaction, if it happens will be a boon to USA as well as Japan.

Economically Japan is capable of investing in producing nukes. A fair guess would be that Japan keeps/or is likely to be in readiness to go nuclear should the circumstances warrant. Chinese forcible accession of Taiwan might be the proverbial ‘last straw’.

Future

World must be prepared for witnessing large scale nuclear proliferation in coming decades. Nukes are no longer viewed as an ‘untouchable’ option; instead it is openly described as currency of power. Iran might become the tenth nuclear weapon state, if USA is unable to coerce/convince Iran to drop the idea of producing nukes. However Iranian capability to produce more than enough enriched uranium having 60% concentration places Iran extremely close to producing a weapon.