IRAN – ISRAEL – USA WAR, 3 MARCH, 2026 -Gp Capt TP Srivastava

"Ongoing conflict, which is still not 100 hours old, has engulfed entire Middle East. A similar event, but of much lesser ferocity was Israel offensive of 1967, famously known as SIX DAY WAR. USA, then was not a participant. In less than 100 hours number of targets hit, number of missiles launched has already surpassed one thousand figure."---Gp Capt TP Srivastava 

Background

Seeds of this war were sown the day JCPOA$* was signed. USA led the team, which signed the JCPOA agreement with Iran. First three paragraphs of JCPOA clearly highlights that at no stage there was an attempt to convince/coerce Iran that it will ‘NEVER’ produce a nuclear weapon. Surprising but true the entire text of JCPOA does not lay down limitation on having only a limited number and type of centrifuge, the fundamental requirement to enrich Uranium even to 3% needed for power generation. As is now well known from IAEA reports that even at the time of signing JCPOA, Iran had sufficient number of centrifuges to produce huge quantity of enriched Uranium. Hence to believe that Iran could have been prevented from going nuclear because of being a signatory to JCPOA was at best whimsical. Iranian negotiators merely needed time, which is what JCPOA gave them. Keeping Israel out of the negotiation was not merely politico-strategic blunder; it was insanity.

Consequences of which are now being witnessed. Statement of Israeli PM mentioned in first part posted earlier is illuminating. Contents of JCPOA are actually laughable because nowhere does it have explicit mention of containing/dismantling Iranian Missiles Development Programme. It is the delivery vehicle which is more important without which an assembled NUKE will stay in storage only. Instead of focusing on enrichment aspect JCPOA should have insisted on dismantling and or limiting Iran’s missile capability.

JCPOA

Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action ( JCPOA) officials

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA; also known as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal, was an agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program in return for sanctions relief and other provisions. The agreement was finalized in Vienna on 14 July 2015, between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)—China, France, Russia, the U.K., U.S.—plus Germany)[a] together with the European Union.

Significant Events

Leaving JCPOA issue aside and focusing on events as they are unfolding, the most significant events are listed below.

·        Indian Diplomacy. Balancing act demonstrated by Indian leadership in taking a silent stance is, perhaps an outstanding example of maturity, foresight and unspoken firm stand. Every nation protects its national interests so should we. It is another matter that political anarchists of this great democracy are shedding crocodile tears on the issue of killing of Iranian leaders. It is an irony that deaf, blind and loudmouth  Indian politicians place their family/party interests ahead of national interests. Numerous statements by ignoramuses having little idea about continued Iranian leadership’s opposition to India, demonstrations by unguided public, mostly youth are clear anti-national act. Present Indian leadership has always enunciated that dialogue/diplomacy is the only means to resolve differences.

        Missile Warfare. Iranian missiles have hit virtually every part of middle east where US Military establishments are present. Media reports indicate that a large number of missiles were intercepted but sufficient numbers still sneaked through in spite of supposedly formidable multi-layered air defence systems in place and have caused substantial damage. Even the debris of missiles that were intercepted have caused substantial damage on ground. Imagine the catastrophe, if an ABM of proposed GOLDEN DOME or SUDARSHAN CHAKRA intercepted an incoming nuclear tipped missile with an already armed NUKE. It is clearly evident that even a successful missile intercept cannot guarantee safety unless it is intercepted during boost phase, which is well nigh impossible. A low trajectory missile launched from Pakistan might not even be detected prior to impact even if ‘develop’ the unwanted Sudarshan Chakra at huge cost.

·        Fratricide. Reports emerging from briefing by US Defence Secretary, confirmation of at least THREE F-15E having been shot down by friendly fire over Kuwait. For records Kuwait has a multi layered anti-missile air defence network yet it failed to identify between FRIEND or FOE. Without any doubt whatsoever, the F-15s must have had their highly advanced IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) system selected ‘ON’. Avoiding techno details, suffice to say that any multi layered anti-missile system having overlap invariably creates a moment of confusion while allocating/designating target/s for engagement. Time available is in seconds. This info is for my friends, who went to town blaming IAF for shooting down our own helicopter in Srinagar when air battle was raging. Fratricide is as much part of any war as the actual destruction of enemy targets.

·        Strikes on non Military Targets. Both sides are attacking non military targets viz embassies, residential areas, oil installations, US establishments with impunity. Wars in 21^st century do not differentiate between civilian or military targets. This conflict as it escalates and not if it will escalate, will cause hitherto unthinkable destruction of infra structure.

·        Future Iran Options. Iran clearly announced its intentions on first day of the war by announcing FORTY DAYS MOURNING for their departed spiritual leader. Shia community of Iran is in any case averse to Sunnis of other middle east nations viz Saudi Arab etc. Decision to remain in mourning for FORTY DAYS is akin to announcing to enemies and world that Iran is not going to back down irrespective of the intensity of Israel-US attacks. Nearly a decade long war of attrition with Iraq in 80s is a fine example of Iranian resolve.

·        Missile Capability of Iran. Trump’s claim of not allowing Iran to go nuclear might be possible. But his yet another claim that it will destroy Iran’s missile capability and operational sites is at best a figment of imagination. As on date Iran is believed to possess at least a dozen, MAY BE MORE, variants/types of SAMs, whose strike range varies from few hundred km to around three thousand km capable of hitting entire middle east.

        Carrier Borne Operations of US Navy. Very sketchy information is available about US Navy’s carrier borne operations with regard to location from which operations are being mounted. A fair guess would be ‘at least 1000 km from nearest Iranian missile launch site’. After considerable searching I was able to access GEOCHRON MAPS updated on 02.03.26 at 0930 EST. It clearly shows Lincoln stationed about 1500 km from Iran’s southern coast along with USS Spruance, USS Pineckney, USS Mischer and an unnamed US Navy Submarine (spelling of ship names might be incorrect because of small display size on the map). Will Indian Navy take a leaf out of current operational deployment and ‘effectiveness’ of most formidable Aircraft Carriers leading the Carrier Task Group? Vulnerability of these monstrous platforms to a strike from hypersonic missile is beyond reasonable doubt.

·        Global Reaction. NATO continues to maintain pregnant silence. China is watching from sidelines with Taiwan in mind. Russia has condemned only verbally because it continues its engagement with Ukraine, which finds itself in total isolation with American focus elsewhere.

Future

America has never achieved a decisive victory in any of the wars it has joined/started. No country has accepted ‘International Policeman’s’ dictate. Korean, Vietnam, Iraq wars are but few examples. Iran will bear the destruction inflicted upon it but is unlikely to surrender. The most likely fallout of the war after it ‘stops’ will be Iran’s dedicated and even more decisive intent to produce a NUKE.

A radical change will almost certainly take place sooner than later, which is Israel’s closer relations with countries viz Saudi Arab etc. Iran miscalculated the after effects of striking US assets in UAE region. Nevertheless twin US objectives of denuclearizing Iran and destroying missile capability will not be accomplished. Iran might lose the war but USA would not have won the war decisively.