Iran – Israel – USA War : 11th March. Will Induction of YJ-21 Change the War? -Gp Capt TP Srivastava
- Gp Capt TP Srivastava
- 56 minutes ago
- 7 min read
Decision to Go to War
1. Did US Defence Secretary wargame the likely scenario that will emerge with high attrition war completing two weeks? Did Pentagon brief the POTUS about the likely ability of Iran to absorb the punishment from formidable offensive launched by combined might of Israel and US Air Power?
Appreciation of Iranian Response
2. From the way war is progressing, it is quite evident that neither the scenario of war with Iran was truly wargamed nor did US leadership had any/little clue about Iranian ability to sustain and retaliate. For records; On 14th February, 2022, Pentagon had predicted that the Russia-Ukraine war will last no more than a week. It has already lasted FOUR YEARS. Did Pentagon fail yet again in assessing Iranian capability? It appears that a similar unprofessional approach was adopted while assessing Iran’s retaliatory capability leading to utterly flawed conclusion. While no strategist has yet deemed it fit to opine about the probable outcome of one of the most ASYMMETRIC war yet wherein two nuclear weapon armed nations possessing world’s most formidable Air Power decided to ‘supposedly’ annihilate a nation sans any Air Power of significance in a matter of days.
Effect of Combined Strike
3. Undoubtedly Iran has suffered massive damage to its ‘over the surface’ infra structure, shipping, economic establishments, production facilities etc. But the massive Iranian Missile Power has challenged combined hegemony of Israel and USA. Exact details of damage done to US Military infra structure in middle east nations are not yet in public domain. But scanty information that has trickled in from various reasonably authentic sources supported by live pictures clearly shows that Iranian missiles have made significant dent by destroying strategic and high value targets viz THAAD installation etc. All GCC nations have suffered considerable damage as well.
Significant Aspects/Events
4. Few aspects and significant events that have taken place/will take place in near future are;
· Most significant event of 8th March, 2026, if true, is transfer of 2000 km range ANTI SHIPPING HYPERSONIC YJ-21 MISSILE by CHINA to IRAN. YJ-21 is called Carrier Killer with a vertical trajectory and cannot be intercepted by missiles, whose radars look at the horizon. The only system that can neutralize is the last layer of carrier protection, the PHALLANX. But even this system will fail to intercept YJ-21 travelling at Mach 10. World just might witness the SINKING of the most formidable carrier with 5000 personnel and at least 35 Billion Dollar assets, if it remains within the range of YJ-21.
· US Navy’s most formidable Carrier Task Group was FORCED TO RETREAT to safer distance of nearly 1200 km from southern tip of Iran. Initially the CBG was as close as 250-300 km but after an attempted strike by four anti shipping missiles by Iran, which failed, the CBG took the most prudent decision to RETREAT. A huge blow for the most formidable maritime power. Vulnerability of ships at sea has clearly increased due to emergence of long range anti shipping missiles. A lesson for Aircraft Carrier operating nations!
· Tactics employed by Iranians wrt employment of its missile force has been exemplary. In spite of world’s latest and ‘supposedly’ most operationally sound Anti Ballistic Missile systems deployed to protect US Military assets, saturated raids by Iranian missiles did manage to penetrate. No ABM System can neutralize in entirety a volley of incoming missiles, which saturate the defences.
· Finite numbers of available interceptors with USA and Israel is their biggest weakness. If the war continues for another two weeks, Iranian missiles will continue to rain without being intercepted.
· As per report published by Washington Post, first two days of war cost USA 5.6 Billion towards cost of weapons used.
· USA and Israel already face long term strategic risks due to chances of successful Iranian missile strikes in coming days. That the US Military leadership is not quite aware of actual happenings is evidenced by repeated changes in projection of likely duration of war.
· Replenishment of interceptor missiles takes time, may be months. Production facilities cannot cope with the rate of consumption.
· Iran must have learnt the lesson during its war with Iraq in 80s. Iraq had deployed lot of inflatable decoys, which looked identical to actual platforms. If yes, then US-Israel will find it extremely difficult to destroy actual missile launchers.
· Will Iran consider mining the mouth of Straits of Hormuz? USA had mined Haiphong Bay in 1972 (Op Pocket Money).
Digital Appreciation of War Fighting Capability of USA and Israel
5. Seriousness of ongoing conflict being faced by USA and Israel will be easily understood by examining authentic data posted below, which will clearly define the prevailing situation.
· To intercept incoming missiles USA and Israel deploy PATRIOT, AEGIS COMBAT SYSTEM (SM-3 and 6), THAAD, IRON DOME etc.
· As per US MILITARY REPORT of December, 2025 Following stock of interceptors missiles were available;
(a) SM-3s. 414
(b) THAAD. 534
(c) Pentagon receives around 270 PAC-3 missiles annually for Patriot system. However in January, 2026 Lockheed Martin has agreed to produce around 2000 PAC-3 missiles. Production upgrade is in progress.
(d) Exact number of interceptor missiles used by USA and Israel is not known but keeping in view their claims made as shown on TV/media, it will be safe to assume that at least 150 THAAD and 100 SM-3s might have been consumed till 11th March (12 days of war).
(e) Al Udeid air base in Qatar (largest USAF air base outside mainland USA in a non NATO nation) must have used large number of these interceptors.
(f) THAAD stockpile is believed to be around 500. If that be so, nearly 35% of stock has already been consumed.
(g) If the same rate of consumption continues, USA-Israel will consume more than half of its total stock in next 20 odd days i.e. by 3rd April.
(h) Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, which has been tracking Iran’s missile capability and Israel have concluded that Iran still has at least 1500 long range missiles and 300 launchers. Large portion of these is secured underground.
(i) USA will require to transport interceptor missiles from other sectors, if the war enters second month.
(j) If Iran can sustain the war beyond two months USA-Israel would have run out of their entire stock of interceptor missiles.
(k) US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth (whose primary task during past one year has been to dismiss/replace top ranking military officials) has said in a TV interview that there is no shortage of weapons. However Pentagon official during a media interaction said that USA is short of interceptor missile.
Iranian Stand
Iran has been categorical by stating the following;
· Speaker of Iran Parliament has rejected US offer of talks.
· IRGC leadership has stated that war will stop when Iran decides.
· Iran has declared that it will increase intensity of missile attacks on US assets in the region.
Prognosis
6. From joining the Korean war, US leadership has invariably jumped to join the unwinnable wars. Ongoing war with Iran is continuation of same chain. Did USA miscalculate Iran’s ability to defend and retaliate? Did Trump and his advisors consider Iran capitulating within hours or days? It is already two weeks and Iran’s presumed surrender is nowhere in sight. US lost the Vietnam war due to fierce Vietcong fighter operating in thick jungles. US will ‘lose’ Iran war not only due to Iranian underground facilities embedded under rocks protecting its offensive element but also rock like resolve of an ordinary Iranian. Their ability to absorb most severe punishment is second to none. Stoppage of offensive by USA-Israel will be akin to losing the war. POTUS and Russian President Putin have already discussed the issue. POTUS must be looking at a face saving option by announcing that objectives of war have been achieved.
Almost certainly USA must be involved in trying to resume back channel negotiation with Iran to extricate itself from an unwinnable war. Will Israeli PM Netanyahu agree? More importantly will Iran agree for the truce? So far only the numbers have been discussed. Financial appraisal projects a frightening picture. Cost ratio of an Iranian missile to US/Israel interceptor missile could be 1:30, may be more in favour of Iran. Add to it the cost of operation of one US Navy CBG, which is around USD 400 Million per month. Currently one CBG is deployed with two more arriving the war zone shortly. Financial catastrophe being faced globally due to massive spike in oil prices is yet another ‘feather’ in the cap of POTUS.
7. Trump repeatedly asserts that war will end only after Iran surrenders. He has, however, never clarified as to what is the end state of the war. Does Iranian surrender imply stoppage of missile launches or does it imply when Iran agrees to handover nearly 400 kg of enriched Uranium fit for producing a nuke? Actual status of NATANZ and FORDOW is not yet known. Trump is unlikely to send US Military into Iran. Consequences of failure will be disastrous for Trump and America. Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine press conference on 10th March did not even touch the issue of likely shortage of interceptors missile.
8. Middle East nations which allowed US establishments on their soil have become totally disenchanted with US ability to protect their assets. They find themselves wedged between hostility of Iran and Israel. Iran has been brutal in its attacks on these nations. Air Defence Umbrella has failed to protect them. Future of US military establishments in these nations is uncertain. It will be greatest strategic setback (read defeat), if few or all of these nations decide to ask US Military to pack up. Uneasy peace with Israel and Iran might be a better option.
9. As and when war comes to an end, Israel’s vulnerability would have increased by quite a few notches. Its successful war in Gaza and near annihilation of HAMAS and HEZBOLLAH would fade into the background. In fact both non-state actors will raise their heads again.
10. Will YJ-21 alter the nearly eight decades old US unilateral domination? Strategic framework of US superiority alters irreversibly. But the moot point remains; WILL YJ-21 PERFORM AS CLAIMED? But there is a doubt; If China believes in YJ-21 capability why has China not moved forward to annex Taiwan yet? Alas! World will wait with baited breath to witness YJ-21 with 500 kg of high explosive striking a US Navy Carrier!
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