Genesis of Current US Involvement in War Against Iran & Annual Threat Assessment by USA -Gp Capt TP Srivastava

In the annals of post 2^nd World War history current conflict between two nuclear capable nations, USA and Israel against a ‘supposedly likely to become’ a nuclear capable nation Iran will top the list of most asymmetric war till date. HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH, HOUTHIS, the prominent non-state actors supported, financed and sheltered by Iran and many other countries of middle east have posed a grave threat. HOUTHIS nearly controlled Red Sea traffic when war between Israel and HAMAS was raging after 7^th October, 2022 strike by HAMAS on Israel killing more than 1000 Israelis. Straits of Hormuz, ‘the’ most strategic water way through which flows nearly 20% of oil, the main fossil fuel on which the globe is surviving, has been partially closed by Iran. Most formidable Navy cannot keep the straits open for traffic. Global energy crisis is already a reality.

A peep into how USA decided to join the war with Israel will throw up and reveal amazing and unbelievable canvas of American idiosyncrasy. The mention of facts in following paras is neither author’s nor other strategists views. IT IS THE VIEWS OF AMERICANS SUBMITTED TO AMERICAN LEADERSHIP.

USA follows an extremely relevant and open system of evaluating THREAT ASSESSMENT NOT ONLY TO MAIN LAND AMERICA AND ITS CITIZENS BUT ALSO AMERICAN INTERESTS AROUND THE GLOBE. The document is called ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT (ATA) and submitted to OFFICE OF DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE (ODIN). From there it finds its way to senate and oval office. ATA for 2025 and 2026 running into barely 30 pages lists areas of concern for USA. It is another matter that in India a judge writes more than 500 pages judgement while granting discharge (not acquittal) to Arvind Kejriwal in excise case. That besides India has no such document in public domain.

The Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) is an OPEN document of the Intelligence Community’s (IC) official, coordinated evaluation of an array of threats to U.S. citizens, the Homeland, and U.S. interests in the world.  Few excerpts from the document are posted below. Excerpts from ATA documents of 2025 (published in March, 2025) and 2026 (published on 14^th March, 2026) are posted below in italics without any alterations/additions by the author.

Annual Threat Assessment of USA published in March, 2025 states;

·       Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions, with both asymmetric and conventional hard power tactics, and promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance, and security (page 4).

·       Tehran will try to leverage its robust missile capability and expanded nuclear program, and its diplomatic outreach to regional states and U.S. rivals to bolster its regional influence and ensure regime survival. However, regional and domestic challenges, most immediately tensions with Israel, are seriously testing Iran’s ambitions and capabilities (page 22).

·       Iran’s conventional and unconventional capabilities will pose a threat to U.S. forces and partners in the region for the foreseeable future, despite the degradation to its proxies and air defenses during the Gaza conflict (page 24).

·      We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003 (PAGE 26).

·       Though pressure has probably built on him to do so. In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision making apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decisionmaker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons (page 26).

·       North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will continue to pursue strategic and conventional military capabilities that target the Homeland, threaten U.S. and allied armed forces and citizens, and enable Kim to undermine U.S. power and reshape the regional security environment in his favor.

·       Kim has no intention of negotiating away his strategic weapons programs, which he perceives as a guarantor of regime security and national pride.

There is no mention of India.

ATA 2026 released on 14^th March, 2026 states;

·       China and India remain the primary source countries for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill pressing equipment.

·       India has increased counternarcotics efforts during the last year. In January 2026, Prime Minister Modi and other Indian officials signaled a willingness to deepen engagement with the U.S. on counternarcotics.

·       The U.S.’s secure nuclear deterrent capability continues to ensure our safety here at home. However, China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that can strike the Homeland.

·       Prior to Operation Epic Fury, Iran was pursuing increasingly capable missile systems, was non-compliant with its Chemical Weapons Convention obligations, had not abandoned its intention to conduct R&D of biological agents and toxins for offensive purposes, was intending to try to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure sustained during the 12-Day War, and refused to live up to its nuclear obligations with the IAEA, including refusing to allow IAEA access to key nuclear facilities. During Operation Epic Fury, the IAEA confirmed recent damage from airstrikes to the entrance buildings of the underground Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, but did not anticipate any release of radiological materials.

·       India–Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear conflict given past conflicts where these two nuclear states squared off, creating the danger of escalation. The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam, in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict. President Trump’s intervention deescalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict, but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises.

Before proceeding any further it is only relevant to remind the readers that;

“In 1989 CIA and MI-5 had categorically stated that Iraq has no nuclear weapons or the capability to do so in foreseeable future.”

Yet USA induced 37 ‘friendly’ nations to join for a war of destruction in Iraq in 1991, which finally culminated in ‘killing’ of Saddam Hussain, the President of Iraq.

Even in the present case US leadership was aware that Iran neither possessed nukes nor was anywhere near acquiring the capability as per ATA of March, 2025. Yet USA struck the nuclear installations of Iran in June, 2025. By all reports including that of IAEA, Iran was considering acceptance of not going nuclear provided sanctions were lifted. However US strike in June, 2025 may have changed the views of hardliners in Iran. Irrational decision of Trump might have acted as catalyst towards Iran going nuclear.

Successive US Presidents have demonstrated their absolute and total detachment from views of local populace, where US deemed it necessary to change the leadership. Recent examples of Iraq and Syria are grim reminders that after US orchestrated action of removing the head of states, both Iraq and Syria remain in turmoil. Similar fate awaits Trump in case of Iran. US ‘aided/approved’ mission by Israel to strike on 28^th Feb, 2026 in the morning to Kill Iranian supreme leader has merely emboldened and strengthened the resolve of Iranians to fight combined might of USA and Israel.

Iran holds the upper hand in the war because of its ability to destroy/damage US assets in middle east as well as blackmail rest of the world by threatening to destroy oil installations in middle east. Every major oil installation in the region is well within the reach of Iranian ballistic missiles. Stoppage and/or control of traffic through Straits of Hormuz is the ‘TRUMP’ card held by Iran.

Trump and his advisors must be repenting the decision to join Israel in the war directly. But it is too late to retrace the steps. Folly of their insane decision has possibly dawned on Trump and he has already made statements viz ‘USA is considering stoppage of strikes since ‘most’ OBJECTIVES have been achieved’ or words to that effect.

It is pertinent to read and assimilate the contents of ATA 2025-26, which deal with North Korea, Pakistan and even India. USA has no clue as to how to handle the proclaimed anti-US NUCLEAR CAPABLE nations viz North Korea, which has unequivocally stated that it will exercise its option of nuclear strike on mainland USA in the event of existential threat either from USA directly or through its protégé South Korea.

By joining the war calling it OPERATION EPIC FURY has indeed turned out to be ‘FOREVER’ fury against America. Its hegemony is no longer acceptable to world at large. Middle east nations have already expressed their displeasure in no uncertain terms for USA failing to protect their property from Iranian missiles.  So called guaranteed protection by positioning numerous anti-ballistic missile systems costing billions of dollars has failed.

USA, the self proclaimed leader of NATO has been unseated from that exalted position. No NATO nation paid any attention to Trump’s request (rather demand) of NATO nations sending their forces to protect Straits of Hormuz. In fact quite a few NATO leaders have clearly stated that Trump did not seek their views (read permission) to attack Iran. For that matter even Israel is supposed to have conveyed to USA only after launching the mission to assassinate Iranian President leaving no room/option for any deliberations.

In short USA has messed it up. Extricating itself will be a monumental task and unquestionably loss of face in world fora. So much for American wisdom!