Display of US Idiosyncrasy

'A settlement is always political and execution military. Both are visible.

 It is the hidden part of negotiations by diplomats that is the key to resolve the issue/s.’

Appreciation of Global Situation

During his speeches before US presidential election of November, 2024, Mr Trump used to mention three important issues. Firstly, stoppage of Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, Secondly, resolution of trade war with China and Thirdly, ensuring that NATO nations pay for their security. Tariff was also an issue but only a passing mention. Mention of India was never made wrt India buying Russian oil as an irritant was never mentioned in spite of Russia-Ukraine war still raging.

Attempt to coerce India into submission by threat of tariffs and penalty for buying Russian oil must have been the brain wave of Peter Navarro and his ilk. US bureaucrats/diplomats obviously failed to appreciate the resolve of Indian government led by PM Modi. Absurd statements viz Russia-Ukraine war is being fuelled by India are not only laughable but also reflect extremely poorly on US diplomats understanding of Indo-US relations. Once again it is not surprising. Pentagon issued a statement on 14th February, 2022 that Russia-Ukraine war will last one week. While the world, India in particular, has adopted anti-US (not anti Trump) stance on tariff issue but the fact is that Trump’s advisor/s failed him and continue to do so. Peter Navarro is the best and unquestionable proof. There may/will/must be many like him.

But this approach of POTUS confidantes is nothing new. During Cuban Missile Crisis, all of them advised JFK to use nuclear option but JFK declined. World survived from a holocaust of unimaginable proportions. But that was more than six decades ago. Nearer times in 2022, an excellent example of profligacy of top US diplomats and/or those close to POTUS was demonstrated by Mr Daleep Singh (possibly of Indian origin), a close confidante of then POTUS Joe Biden. Mr Daleep Singh was no different and had imbibed American values. During his visit to India he may have met Indian officials also but he definitely spoke to Indian Media. During his interaction with Hindustan Times, a prominent Indian English daily he said; I quote:

“No one should kid themselves – Russia is going to be the junior partner in this relationship with China. And the more leverage that China gains over Russia, the less favourable that is for India. I don’t think anyone would believe that if China once again breached the Line of [Actual] Control, that Russia would come running to India’s defence, (HT, of 31st March, 2023). Unquote.

Such laughable statement By Mr Daleep Singh must have been made because before coming to India he must have been briefed by some Indo-China specialist in US administration. His statement clearly indicates that he was ignorant about not only India-China relations but also had total lack of understanding of China’s geo-strategic vision.

Jaundiced vision of US diplomats has resulted in disaster after disaster, be it Korean war or Vietnam war. Even Op Desert Strorm was a result of these advisors telling Bush that Iraq was close to producing nukes. Rest is history. 42 day war from 17th January to 28th February, 1991 destroyed Iraq, ‘killed’ Saddam but did not find a trace of nukes.

Mindset of US diplomats remains “If you are not with us, you are against us”. They do not understand the broader meaning of the word non-alignment. India has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that our relations with all countries, including adversaries, are from a position of strength while staying non aligned. An excellent example is our continued trade with China, which is currently around USD 130 Billion. Indian Military operates weapon platforms from  France, Israel, Russia, USA and other nations. India has excellent diplomatic relations with almost all nations in middle east.

Treaties with India and other Nations

Strategic bigotry of USA is exemplified by few recent examples;

·        When USA signed AUKUS treaty, US state department made an official announcement that India and Japan will not be added as AUKUS members. Contents of the statement might not sound to be offensive but timing of the statement was reprehensible because on the day when this announcement was made PM Modi was in USA on official visit to meet POTUS, attend QUAD summit and address UNGA. Also was USA trying to convey that AUKUS takes precedence over QUAD?

·        AUKUS treaty annoyed France because Australian government cancelled the French multi billion dollar order for providing nuclear submarines. For records; Canadian desire to acquire nuclear submarines from France/UK was scuttled by USA in 80s.

·        On one hand US advocates non proliferation but ‘believes’ that supplying nuclear submarines to Australia will not fuel nuclear weapons race.

·        Techno-legal aspects of AUKUS treaty highlight the professionally profligate aspects of all three member countries, two being members of UNSC. As per the deal Australia will acquire eight nuclear powered submarines by way of technology transfer. The much touted Non Proliferation Treaty terms and conditions were suitably tailored to introduce a techno-administrative loop hole due to which a non nuclear weapon state could divert fissile material for peaceful purposes. Submarine propulsion is considered a ‘peaceful’ activity. Such diversion of fissile material is not under the purview of IAEA inspection.

·        After 9/11 USA has spent billions of dollars to convert research reactors supplied to various countries from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enriched uranium (LEU) as fuel in nuclear submarines. HEU can be used to produce nuclear weapons.

·        Although US congress has repeatedly desired that US Navy submarines switch over to LEU as fuel but US Navy has vehemently opposed the proposal on ground of non-operational status of submarine during fuel replacement process, which may take about a year. France, has however, reduced the refueling time to few weeks due to adoption of robotic refueling.

·        USA has shared nuclear propulsion technology with only one country, UK about seven decades ago but has declined to share the AEW/AWACS technology with any NATO nation. However quite a few NATO nation operate US AEW/AWACS, thus keeping them dependent on USA.

·        All US and UK nuclear propelled submarines use highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is very close to weapon grade uranium required for a bomb. While technical details of the deal are not yet known, it would be safe to assume that even the Australian nuclear submarines will use HEU. Consequences of making weapon grade uranium available to Australia might/will lead to smaller ‘threshold nations’ also trying to acquire similar technology, may be from Russia and/or China. South Korea, Iran, Taiwan fall into category of ‘threshold nation’.

·        Joe Biden in 2009 was instrumental in framing of Kerry-Luger bill, which allowed Pakistan to receive USD 1.5 Billion per year for five years as non military aid (2010-14). Was it a quid-pro-quo? How Pakistan used such huge amount of dole needs no elaboration. For record; Pakistan had honoured Biden with second highest civilian award Hilal-e-Pakistan in 2008.

·        USAF still maintains its base in Pakistan airfield ‘BADABER’ from where U-2 flights operated till 1st May, 1960.

Threat to US Hegemony

US administration, present and past, has been extremely conscious and sensitive to any challenge to US hegemony during post 2nd world war era. US considers it as a threat. Till disintegration of USSR, it was the only threat. USA started believing in uni-polar world with USA occupying numero uno position. China and India were languishing, barely able to feed the teeming millions. US believed that same state will continue. It opened flood gates of its top educational and research institutions to entice (read capture) best brains from China and India. Greed of ‘greenbags’ and apathy towards bureaucratic/dictatorial regime in India and China respectively induced brilliant Indian and Chinese brains to embrace USA. But in past five decades both nations have emerged from the shadows and are ready to pose challenge to US hegemony.

Indo-US bonhomie has not been welcomed by the ‘deep state’ within USA. Shifting of trade war from China to India is near perfect example. ‘Deep State’ in USA not only sees China as threat but also India as emerging threat, which can challenge America’s national competitive knowledge advantage built by Indian brains. Although it might seem to be a hypothetical likelihood but imagine USA sans Indian brains. It will collapse like a pack of cards.

US reacted indifferently when BRICS was formed. A state department post opined that BRICS will have no future because of prevailing hostility between China and India. However BRICS has survived. As on date collective GDP of BRICS nations has exceeded the GDP of G-7 nations. Russia and China have enhanced their nuclear arsenal. China has launched its own space station. India’s leap in space is noteworthy.

After Galwan incident in 2020, which led to China and India amassing troops was perhaps ‘music’ to US administration. However during past five years China and India have improved their relations from hostile and frosty to near friendly. Both nations have unequivocally asserted that as neighbours friendly relations will be beneficial to both nations.

Russia has forcefully retaliated against Ukraine assisted by NATO nations led by USA. By default Russia has proved that it can neutralize NATO onslaught single handedly. It has forced Trump to announce that Ukraine will not be admitted in NATO fold. Russia-Ukraine war will be 1300 days old on 17th September, 2025 but there are no signs of Russia backing off, US threat of sanctions notwithstanding.

Trump’s 2nd Term

Globally it was believed that Trump’s second term will be more stable than his first term as well as Joe Biden’s term. But happenings of past seven months have proved otherwise. Trump’s decision making has oscillated between ‘knee jerk decisions’ to ‘hire and fire’ actions. For instance during past seven months Trump administration has dismissed 14 top generals holding sensitive posts. His rhetoric during his speeches before presidential elections of stopping Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours after he entered White House has proved to be irrelevant. Israeli PM pays scant attention to US suggestions on stopping the Gaza carnage.

Prognosis

President Trump should complete his term barring health issues. In spite of imposing stiff tariff rates and penalties on India, Trump continues to say that Indo-US relations are stable. However threat is not from trump but from ‘deep state’ comprising of neo liberals and hard core conservatives. American status as numero uno is no longer a foregone conclusion. His decisions on international issues have been questioned and even condemned. Even his decisions specifically in respect of USA viz his decision to deploy National Guards has been condemned even by staunch Republicans. US Supreme Court is due to pronounce its verdict on validity of tariffs imposed by Trump.

Continued bonhomie with US adversaries is no longer acceptable to US. Indo-Russian bonhomie is a thorn in its flesh. India finds itself in an unenviable position with nearly 75% top order military hardware being of Russian origin, India cannot delink/disassociate with Russia, both politically as well as militarily. Steadily improving relations with China cannot be swallowed by USA.

Personal chemistry between Modi and Trump scaled new heights when PM Modi’s ill timed slogan ‘ABKI BAR TRUMP SARKAR’ resonated during ‘HOWDY MODI’ rally in Houston. However that has not survived the onslaught of tariff war launched by Trump. Unwittingly Trump has succeeded in formation of troika of Russia-India-China, pacts signed with India during Trump’s 1st term viz LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA notwithstanding.

China’s twelve point proposal and PM Modi’s personal equation with Putin and Zelensky might just succeed in ending Russia-Ukraine war. If that happens, it will be a slap on US diplomacy. But USA is unlikely to discard its belief in precept of “If you are not with us, you are against us”.

Have US bureaucrats like Peter Navarro and his ilk failed the nation?

Long live American idiosyncrasy!