Development of Conventional Missile Force for Indian Military --Gp Capt TP Srivastava

"7th October, 2023 event was of no military, political and strategic significance to you and your staff supposedly entrusted with the task of conceptual thinking. A non state actor HAMAS launched a conventional unguided missile onslaught on a sovereign nuclear power nation Israel. You all just slept over it. Come 28th Feb, 2026 when two nuclear powers with most formidable Air Power complement of the world launched a massive strike on Iran, a non nuclear and lacking Air Power nation.

Iran responded magnificiently by carrying out saturated guided/unguided missiles which swamped the supposedly best BMD Systems of the world.

It appears even this has made no dent in your thinking of at least deliberating creation of a conventional guided/unguided missile force in large numbers for Indian Military. Obviously you are busy with professionally and economically

 unwarranted issues viz Theatre Commands, Sudarshan Chakra BMDS etc.

Pakistan must have already learnt lessons from HAMAS strike on Israel more than two years ago. But we are still sleeping.

As a fundamental precept, no changes must be resorted to during volatile conditions. Obviously you and your staff are not aware of what great philospher strategists viz Chanakya, Sun Tzu etc have preached. 

My views on the issue pasted below. Kindly have the courtesy of acknowledging "

--Gp Capt TP Srivastava

Development of Conventional Missile Force for Indian Military

HAMAS Strikes Israel

7^th October, 2023 was a red letter day when the world witnessed well defined full scale attack by a non state actor on a sovereign nuclear weapon capable nation. HAMAS, an acclaimed terrorist organization purportedly supported by Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, which not only took Israel by surprise but also the entire world due to modus-operandi adopted. HAMAS launched possibly thousands of low cost, low trajectory missiles with conventional warheads simultaneously across the length of nearly entire Israel.

Sheer intensity of attack by thousands of low cost missiles carrying few hundred kg warheads stunned a nuclear capable nation. Israel boasted of formidable and most modern Anti Ballistic Missile Systems viz home grown Iron Dome and US produced THAAD and PATRIOT BMDS. None of the systems could intercept all the incoming missiles during saturated HAMAS Missile strike. It is of little relevance to examine what damage, if any, that was caused to life and infra structure; More relevant aspect is that such saturated synchronized strike could be conceived by a non state actor and did take place and was successful. A formidable military power Israel had no answer to the massive strike by a non state actor using a primitive weapon costing few thousand US dollars requiring little or no infra structure.

Israeli retaliation against HAMAS continues. In spite of boasting of being a formidable Air  Power and extremely well equipped ground forces, Israel has failed to neutralize HAMAS in totality. HAMAS continues to strike Israel with low cost missiles costing, may be few thousand dollars launched from highly mobile launchers.

Israel and USA Offensive against Iran

USA and Israel combined offensive against Iranian nuclear infra structure of June, 2025 was considered to be a highly successful attack. World was made to believe that Iranian nuclear capability was buried under the debris of the nuclear infra structure. But it proved to be otherwise as was confirmed by numerous satellite pictures. World, middle east region in particular, assumed that uneasy truce will prevail.

Israel and USA believed that the uprising in Iran will result in induction of a more balanced and rational administration. It is not yet known with certainty but it is quite likely that both nations supported the uprising in Iran in a clandestine manner. However since November, 2025 things started becoming ‘HOT’ after Iran categorically stated that it will continue with development of its nuclear programme.

Perhaps it was then that Israel decided to not only attempt to destroy remaining Iranian nuclear infra structure but also top leadership. Israel took nearly three months to convince USA to join because Israel knew that by itself it will not be able to decimate Iran. Diplomatic attempts failed to produce any result as deemed fit by USA and Israel.

Iranian Offensive against Israel and US Interests in GCC Nations

Most of military strategists have been using the phrase ‘Israel-USA Offensive against Iran’. But if viewed in totality after 39 days of war, it has turned out to be other way round. USA and Israel struck Iran with massive Air Power on 28^th February, 2026. Nearly everyone around the globe believed that Iran will buckle down within a few days since it had no Air Power. Combination of Iranian resolve and its military might in form of unbelievably large conventional missile force with strike range from few hundred to few thousand kilometers surprised the combined might of Israel and USA.

Indeed Israel-USA combine were able to eliminate top leadership and cause huge damage to military and civilian infra structure but they have failed to break the resolve of Iranians. In spite of that after 39 days of brutal war Iran has refused to surrender as demanded by USA. Mid way through the war Iran ‘exploded’ ‘STRAITS OF HORMUZ’ Bomb by blocking it for all shipping traffic, thereby choking nearly entire globe to varying degree. Situation as on 13^th April remains same.

But apart from blocking the strategic water way Iranian offensive subdued USA and Israel by successfully striking and damaging/destroying economic infra structure in GCC nations. Nearly all GCC nations were provided USA BMDS but it failed to intercept dozens may be hundreds of incoming Iranian missiles.

Peace talks in Islamabad have produced no results and have been discontinued. But it has definitely enabled Pakistan as mediator to bask in glory even if it was for 24 hours.

There are any number of questions viz;

·        What will be final outcome?

·         How long will the uneasy ceasefire last?

·         Will Straits of Hormuz be opened for traffic?

And many more.

Reaction of Pakistan

Although talks have failed to produce any favourable result, Pakistan has assumed the role of peace maker. That besides Pakistan is a good learner specially in Indian context. With few thousand km long fully active border and proximity of India’s vital installations, Pakistan must have already copied HAMAS/IRAN philosophy of mass producing low cost missiles/launchers and deploy these in close proximity of active border. In any future hostile engagement India will, almost certainly face saturated low cost conventional missile strikes from Pakistan.

Lessons for India

Leaving the outcome of the war issue alone for the moment, it will be extremely prudent for our planners to take a leaf out of HAMAS strike on Israel and Iranian offensive against Israel/USA. Five extremely significant issues emerge with absolute clarity. If Indian decision makers continue to suffer from ‘Ostrich Syndrome’, we must be prepared to meet same/similar fate as Israel and USA during our next engagement with Pakistan. The issues are;

·        Effectiveness of Decentralised Structure of Iranian Military (read IRGC)

·        Severe Limitation of Intercept of incoming Saturated Missiles Strike

·        Effectiveness of large conventional multiple warhead missiles

·        Owning and Controlling Indigeneous GPS

·        Employability and Survivability of MQ9B Reaper

Analysis

Each one of the above will now be discussed

1.     Decentralised Structure of Iranian Military (read IRGC). Iran has been exposed to most brutal air strikes in recent times. As per US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth US Air Power flew in excess of 13,000 sorties in 39 days against a nation which neither has any worthwhile Air Power nor formidable Air Defence systems. Yet it has survived and forced USA on negotiating table. IRGC elements have totally independent decision making philosophy for their respective areas. Local commander does not have to approach Teheran for decisions. For instance the now deceased Iranian Navy Commander took all decisions wrt traffic in Straits of Hormuz. However we in India are ready to destroy and tear the war proven decentralised fabric of Indian Military by readying to adopt the most useless military structure of Theatre Commands. It is never too late to retrace the steps and return from the brink. Strength of prevalent Indian Military structure lies in its diversity where each Service has command and control of its regional commands, which have successfully integrated and produced favourable results in all wars/near war situations till date. But ‘BLIND MEN OF HINDOOSTAN’ are ready to pat their backs by destroying the war proven Regional Command structure.

2.     Severe Limitation of Intercept of incoming Saturated Missiles Strike. Indian decision makers and planners must accept the fundamental fact; all incoming missiles cannot be intercepted, few will get through no matter how dense/how many air defence systems we deploy. During HAMAS saturated missile strikes on Israel and continued Iranian onslaught on Israeli targets as well as targets in GCC nations it has been conclusively proved that NO BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM is capable of intercepting all incoming missiles and/or multiple warheads released from same missile. THAAD, Iron Dome, Patriot and others have not only failed to protect the targets for which these were deployed but also have thrown up an amazing economic dimension. Conventional missiles of HAMAS and Iran might be costing from few thousand to may be few hundred thousand US Dollars. But each interceptor costs over hundred thousand to few million US Dollars. Also the numbers of interceptors available are limited but missiles with HAMAS and Iran has shown nearly unlimited availability. Hence investing in and BMDS will be not only fool hardy but an economic disaster. Trump’s proposed GOLDEN DOME cost is approaching USD 200 Billion. Our entire annual defence budget is less than USD 100 Billion. Within budgetary constraints we have acquired and deployed missile defence systems which protect limited areas. S-400 is a long range SAM but cannot be called a BMDS. We have already developed operationally ready and deployed AKAASH and few other systems. Instead of wasting precious and scarce funds in developing SUDARSHAN CHAKRA, India would do well to mass produce indigeneous systems viz AKAASH. For record USA produces less than 100 THAAD interceptors annually each costing USD 13 Million. It produces less than 1000 interceptors for PATRIOT system each costing over hundred thousand dollars. During 39 day war they have had to ration interceptor launches. Can we afford that? Even if we could, should we waste scarce resources in developing an inefficient system? 

3.     Effectiveness of Saturated Attack by Large Numbers of Conventional Multiple Warhead Missiles. Is there a need to amplify this issue after having witnessed fire works launched by HAMAS and IRAN? HAMAS, a non state actor and Iran a sovereign and powerful economic power by virtue of its oil resources realized that neither can match the fire power of Israel and USA hence they had to exercise some other option. What an outstanding decision to produce low cost missile and launcher systems and saturate the air defences of their adversary. Both have done it with absolute perfection. Indeed these low cost missiles cannot prevent air strikes from adversaries but each such missile with few hundred kg of high explosive can cause not only nuisance but also substantive damage as has happened to USAF assets deployed in middle east. Multiple war heads carrying missile created an altogether different problem. Even if intercept was successful, few warheads will still escape interception and cause damage. Yet another operational issue is trajectory of such missiles. An incoming low trajectory missile is detected when it is in close proximity of deployed missile defence system, thereby reducing the reaction time. Also the intercepted missile fragments and warheads fall within the friendly territory. Most of these missile warheads carry impact fuse hence explode instantaneously on impact. Iran has employed its launchers in hills and underground locations, which provide nearly 100% protection. A fair guess would be that Iran still has at least 50% missile launchers safely buried underground. 14 day hiatus will provide Iran enough time to produce more such missiles. While the information on Iranian artillery is not known but if Iran opts to deploy its artillery on the banks of Straits of Hormuz, it will renew the age old precept of ‘CANNONBALL’ concept. In olden times territory of water bodies was ‘owned’ up to the distance the cannons of the nation could fire. Straits of Hormuz is barely 40 km wide.

4.     Owning and Controlling Indigeneous GPS. For a missile force to operate effectively it has to comprise of guided as well as unguided missiles. For guided missiles guidance is provided by Global Positioning System. It is extremely likely that Iran used Chinese Beidou GPS because US controlled GPS would have been disabled for use by Iran. India’s current situation is precarious with all atomic clocks having stopped/malfunctioned. Recent failures during launch has added to the woes. Developing an operational GPS must be India’s top most priority.

5.     Employability/Survivability of MQ9B Reaper. Indian military is slated to acquire 31 MQ9B Reapers manufactured by General Atomics, a US Defence manufacturer headed by an Indian American Dr Vivek Lall. In 39 day war USAF lost 24 Reapers. Survivability of Reaper in a potent air defence environment is a suspect. While Iran achieved all kills by SAMs, in case of Pakistan the fighters armed with AAMs viz PL-15s will also pose substantive threat. Each Reaper costs around USD 30 Million. Delivery of Reapers to Indian military begins in 2029. During Op Sindoor S-400 achieved a kill at a range of around 350 km while Chinese PL-15 launched supposedly by JF-17 achieved a kill at about 150 km.

India’s Options

·        Military Structure. Do not (r) not alter the Regional Command Military structure in these volatile times. Pakistan must be planning to take revenge of Op Sindoor. Chinese and US support in current global turmoil to Pakistan will be nearly assured. Stable military structure, therefore is of paramount importance.

·        Development of Indigeneous BMDS. Do not (r) not waste precious and scarce economic resource in trying to develop an operationally unsuitable system viz SUDARSHAN CHAKRA.

·        Indigeneous GPS. All efforts should be channelized to develop an operational GPS on priority.

·        Missile Force Creation/Induction. Undertake massive plan to mass produce low cost unguided missiles/launchers and deploy these in close proximity of active border to be manned by Army/IAF personnel with reliable communication network. The cost of developing the missile force must not be compared with acquisition of any other weapon platform, be it fighters, aircraft carriers or tanks. There is no need to create separate command structure for missile force. Suitable SOPs can be worked out for operational employment. Acquisition of large numbers of low cost missile force should be viewed as a separate but inescapable need in prevailing circumstances. Modern fighters cost USD 60-80 Million. In the cost of one fighter we might be able to produce few thousand low cost missile/launchers. Separate fiscal allocation for production of the missile force must be made. If it cannot be found in existing budgetary allocation then as an alternative it can easily be found by cancelling third aircraft carrier proposal and reducing number of fighters being purchased from foreign vendor. Indian military leadership must realize that fighters and projected missile force will be complimentary platforms and not a replacement. Any delay in acquiring this cost effective system of great strategic significance will be at our own peril. In any case we must be prepared to face the saturated conventional guided/unguided missile barrage from Pakistan

·        MQ9B Reaper Employment. Indian military has three years to evolve employment philosophy of Reapers to avoid USAF fate in Iran.

NOTE - This article is based on  the original letter dt  13 Apr 2026 sent  to the CDS by Gp Capt TP Srivastava . MVI is pleased to reproduce it and  publish it as an article for wider readership and awareness . -

- Editor ,MVI ,13 Apr 26 ,Pune