AMAZING STRATEGY? Or ILL INTENT : THE COMPLEX GEO POLITICO STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE

TRUMP that name is turbulence and at times pretty discomforting. It’s like you are always on the look out, asking the question what next? The self proclaimed peace keeper and the cost of peace today seems absolutely illogical and provocative. OR IS HE?

Let’s state some facts of the geo politico strategic environment at present:-

⁃ The US losing its credibility as a strong state that dictates geo strategic policy. Internally too many fault lines that prevent unity of decisions. Internal discontent and governors that don’t align with the President. Election of New York Mayor Mamdani (a conservative Muslim for the first time).

⁃ US dollar being undermined by a few led by China and assisted by Russia and Iran.

⁃ Trump and the Tariff war. Leading countries to rewrite their supply chain network.

⁃ China’s Military ambition of having the greatest military by 2049. A huge threat to US hegemony.

⁃ Africa, South America and many Asian countries slowly diversifying trade and economic partnerships and bending the Chinese way.

⁃ Energy in huge quantities being stored and preserved in Chinese underground artificially created oil wells. Underground reservoirs are used to store oil, natural gas, compressed air and hydrogen, primarily in deep salt caverns and depleted oil/gas reservoirs. This strategy is driven by the need for energy security, increasing natural gas consumption, and managing seasonal demand peaks. As of late 2024, China's total crude oil storage capacity, including strategic reserves, rose to over 2 billion barrels.

⁃ Seemingly unresolvable conflicts - Russia vs Ukraine; Israel vs Hamas.

⁃ Genocide in Nigeria and Sudan.

⁃ Internal disturbances in Iran, 16500 killed by the government against the uprising.

⁃ Yemen and Libya civil war, political instability. Support to Gaza and mission sttikes on Israel.

⁃ Rise of the patriots (anti Islam factions in Europe, Australia, Germany).

⁃ Kidnapping a country’s president, with the whole world watching and no one able to do a thing.

⁃ India vs Pakistan, war resolved but the water treaty on hold as India’s strategic strangulation against terrorism.

⁃ Confrontations in the South China Sea. Multiple players to include Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Australia and consolidated by the US against China.

⁃ Taiwan and the constant threat of annexation.

⁃ North Korea suddenly being wooed as a nuclear state by many international powers.

⁃ Saudi Arabia opening up to modernisation, industrialisation and social freedom. Also seeking military partnerships with Pakistan.

⁃ Rise of Economic Nationalism: Countries are increasingly using protectionist policies, trade restrictions, and economic coercion to secure critical resources, supply chains (minerals, food, energy), and technology.

⁃ AI & technology growing at a pace that if uncontrolled would have serious ramifications on power and security.

Why is Trump therfore doing what he is doing. Many answers are within the facts stated above. This president is on a mission backed by hawks as strategists. Who know where to make the noise and where and when to take action. Trump and his intent is to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. This can be only done by dominating the geo strategic landscape. Simply put he needs the US in number 1 position in military power, financial strength. As a global decision maker, the keeper of peace. The hope for every developing nation in seeking technology, military assistance, scientific breakthroughs and medical care.

So who is the competition? It’s CHINA. The rate at which China is growing economically it might just surpass the US if not stopped or stymied by 2030. The U.S. currently holds the world's largest economy by nominal GDP, driven by strong consumer spending and tech, while China is second, powered by manufacturing and exports, but with faster recent growth. China's economy is often considered larger by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), reflecting its vast production, but the U.S. leads in GDP per capita and innovation, though China rapidly grows in tech and attracts massive FDI, therefore while projections differing on who will lead by 2030, the US doesn’t even want this competition to exist. For nullifying this competition he needs to maintain a difference of minimum 40%. To ensure the Chinese stay within the margin of non threatening growth, he has to apply the brakes.

So the next question is what is China’s greatest need, that it doesn’t have on its own. And prompt comes the answer, ENERGY. Required to run his industry, his households, his military, his research and development. China is the world's second-largest consumer of petroleum, using around 16.4 million barrels daily in 2024, second only to the U.S. China actively diversifies suppliers and routes to enhance energy security, reducing reliance on any single region or path, according to the Center on Global Energy Policy.

Where does this energy come from? China's petroleum comes from a diverse global network, with major imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela and Iran, often transported via sea through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca, supplemented by overland pipelines from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia.  

China significantly increased its Russian oil imports, particularly discounted Urals crude, as other buyers like India reduced purchases due to sanctions, making Russia China's top oil supplier and boosting China's role as a key buyer of sanctioned energy, with volumes soaring past 1.5 million barrels per day in late 2025/early 2026. These imports are filling gaps left by now non delivery of Venezuelan oil. 

So let’s come to why the President of Venezuela was kidnapped. Maduro’s presidency has been marred by economic crisis, food poverty, political repression, accusations of corruption and drug-trafficking, and a colossal migrant crisis. Since he assumed power, nearly 8 million Venezuelans have left the country, equalling almost a quarter of the country’s population. Or?????? OIL. That too oil that was being planned to be sold in large quantities to the Chinese. Certain facts are enunciated below:-

• Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, at an estimated 303 billion barrels. Most of those reserves are made up of heavy, sour crude located in the Orinoco Oil Belt in the centre of the country. The basin’s oil is especially dense and vicious, with a tar-like consistency that necessitates specialist methods such as steam injection and diluents for extraction.

• China became the primary destination for sanctioned Venezuelan oil as other countries curbed their purchases in response to U.S. sanctions. China has used evasion methods similar to those it uses to import oil from other sanctioned countries like Iran and Russia, including transshipment, bartering, and “shadow fleet” tankers with opaque ownership.

• Venezuela has been one of China’s closest partners in Latin America. China’s relationship with Venezuela grew rapidly after Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998. In 2023, the two countries elevated their relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership,” a high-level diplomatic designation that signals long-term cooperation across politics, trade, energy, and other areas. 

• Beijing has developed deep economic ties with Venezuela over the past two decades. Chinese policy banks loaned more to Venezuela than any other Latin American country; at least $10 billion in Chinese bank loans is outstanding. China also purchases most of Venezuela’s oil, which accounts for over half of Venezuela’s fiscal revenue, despite U.S. sanctions. 

• Venezuela is the largest purchaser of Chinese military equipment in Latin America. China has also constructed and retains access to two satellite tracking stations within Venezuela. While the “all-weather” partnership reflects deep ties, it does not create formal security guarantees. 

But the biggest factor is the US has existing built in capability to process Venezuelan oil. Many of the US refineries along the coast – Texas and Louisiana – were built and designed to process Venezuela crude. Venezuela has a history of exporting its oil to the US due to the fact that US oil companies were the first to go in, discover, pump, process, and export Venezuelan petroleum. Hence, refineries along the coast were built to handle this type of petroleum.

So Trump here killed three birds with one stone. Prevented China from Venezuelan oil. Gave a fillip to own oil giants who already had the infrastructure to make big money. Filling in the American coffers and reducing the national debt. Also will now provide the military hardware at a cost to the Venezuelan government. Along with this he sent a clear sign to the world that America for its national Interests can always cross the red line with impunity. Making it the most powerful nation in the world.

So now let’s have a look at President Trump again. What say the world???? Strategist, businessman or a nationalist statesman?