A REVIEW OF THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING INDIA & CHALLENGES: 2026 & BEYOND

INTRODUCTION

1. The past few years have been chaotic to say the least. We saw many upheavals , conflicts and economic aggression the world over and around India.

2. Ukraine peace plan continues to be elusive , Gaza has a nebulous peace punctuated by strikes from Israel. Both wars have an American footprint.

3. Putin appears well entrenched and calling the shots to draw out terms for peace and Trump supporting him surreptitiously by slowing down intelligence sharing as well as supply of weapons leaving an economically broke Europe to fund and face the war! Yet more, theories that the Trump Administration in actuality is planing for a regime change in Russia are also in the air!

4. On the economic front, sanctions and protection seem to be the order of the day! Whilst these don't seem to have worked against China and Russia , both being strong, countries like India maybe vulnerable!

EUROPE

5. Venezuela, Greenland, Antarctica, Columbia and Cuba are amongst the top few on Trumps list.The European economy according to him is crumbling and we are quite aware of the challenges being faced by them. The European Union's statements on America's action in Venezuela have been placid to say the least. The next ongoing debate is about the response to a US initiative to take Greenland by force, this many say would be the end of the European Union because of the split position amongst member states!

6. Immigrants a major issue in Europe has now been overshadowed by the American action in Venezuela and threats to Greenland.

7. Further in what may be considered another shocker for those living in the USA, the Trump Administration now wants all residents from foreign countries getting aide from America to account for what they contribute to America! Perhaps more deportations are on the way ?

8. Surpsingly Indians do not figure in this list because they are tax payers whilst 40% of Pakistanis get financial support from the US! Yet there exists an anti indian sentiment?

9. Kidnapping of the Venezuelan leadership being the latest act of aggression and blatant disrespect for international rules. At the same time Clemency to the Honduras leadership also involved in drug trafficking and corruption exposed double standards!

10. According to some reports, this move in Venezuela comes in the face of increased influence by China in South America including purchase of oil from Venezuela. And it exposes Russian defence technology which the Americans successfully suppressed.

11. Others have commented that America under Trump has staked her claim to what is theirs; i.e the western region or hemisphere of the globe over which as per the revised National Security Strategy, European Countries have no rights!

12. This in turn could be seen as another West vs East move in the geographical shift to set the new world order.

INDIA : A LEADER IN SOUTH ASIA

13. The two asian giants China and India compete for not merely Asian but World Leadership. That is where competing instead of cooperating comes from. Neither leadership it appears can see the benifits of cooperation!?

14. We are a growing economy, a large mass of geography and the worlds largest population. A powerful military second perhaps only to the numbers in China. To America we also present a partnership in their quest to contain China, thus on the face of things we are not Venezuela or Columbia therefore not a push over. However, a word of caution here, it is not direct military threat that is worrisome, it is the influence of a deep state and the encirclement across land and ocean borders by countries inimical to us. I may add here that the new American Security Strategy has down played the threat from both China and Russia!

15. The so called proxy states around India would happily foment trouble for India, terrorism, encouraging separatist movements like 'A Greater Bangladesh ' absurd as it may sound. Coupled to this are trade sanctions which bring to bear direct pressure on the people and Government by hurting the economy.

16. Regardless of claims of being the fastest growing economy, many argue that the figures are incorrect and that the Base Year remains eleven years old. Additionally, a comparison needs to be done between Industrial Growth and Unemployment for evaluating economic growth.

WHAT CHALLENGES DOES INDIA FACE ?

17. To me the biggest challenge for India is the 'setting right ' of our internal environment. Be it a question of National Character & Pride, of greed and corruption, of ever expanding population and poor education, slow industrial growth resulting in unemployment glaring us in the face. Screaming for a change every minute, they are ignored by the leadership in favour of party or personal political aspirations! Or a toothless opposition looking for ways to find footing in the political canvass.

18. Neither of them have focused on a debate concerning issues of national interest. One only gets to hear mud slinging against each other and Nehru bashing!

19. Protecting our energy requirement and expanding our markets is an imperative and urgent need. So far India's beaurocrats appear to be floundering in this area! Markets shed a humongous amount just over night after the abduction of the Venezuelan president simply because of the insecure future of oil. IOC, ONGC, OIL have all got high stakes in the Venezuelan oil and Trump Administration appears to have sent shivers down their spines!

20. The likely impact will be certainly on oil supply, fluctuating markets, inflation and slowing down of an already tardy economy.

21. We require a stable neighbourhood, however , the competing neighbours are so aligning against us aided and abetted by both China and America leaving us no choice other than girdling ourselves to face both military and economic challenges simultaneously.

22. To briefly recap; Pakistan remains a sworn enemy even at the cost of their citizens themselves, Nepal has fallen in the China trap as have Bangladesh and Myanmar exposing NE States to the threat of a break up?

23. To a casual observer, the states of India appear to be for ever in a weak social bond with India as a whole AND it is this inherent or perceived weak social fabric that encourages countries inimical to our interest in fomenting trouble by publicising and pushing for Separatism! Take the example of Greater Bangladesh and the NE once again.

24. Economic demands on India are manifold, right compensation for shop floor workers imply reducing profits to pay better wages allowing them basic needs like housing, health, education and so forth. Perhaps reducing salaries of higher management as part of cost cutting? Begin to pay for production rather than presense.

25. Filling the human void in Russia, Europe and other areas demands higher standards of skilling in use of machineries, computing, languages amongst other fields. This requires intervention from the Government both in policy making, monitoring training and a Government to Government MOU for provision of required manpower, cutting out the 'Dunky' route altogether.

26. De politicising the Military and encouraging the creation of Strong Military Leadership , simultaneously developing a sense of pride amongst all ranks serving the Nation. This does not happen if the Government fails to fund aspects like ECHS or Contests NFFU .

27. The challenges for our military are multifarious . Atman nirbharta will take time, R&D requires huge investment and will take time in being productilnalised , in the interim , we need to buy what we require and this takes money for which industry requires to be more productive and rapidly at that! Agniveer and impact on operational efficiency, rapid absorption and adaptation to new technologies. Expansion of force levels to face three fronts. Tackle insurgencies firmly and with a pragmatic policy.Steps taken so far in restructuring the forces, induction of new technologies which prepare us for seamless battles amongst three services need a bigger push in order to ratify each of these . A word of caution, all developments need to be kept under wraps until fully incorporated.

28. The Stooge Government installed in Bangladesh also has the American , Chinese and Pakistan foot print and has in addition been supported by the infamous ISIS! Here again we have the American double standards in being pretentious by saying they are India's friends yet arming Pakistan and setting up an anti India regime in Bangladesh that too in collusion with China! The number of Madrasas in Bangladesh training Gen Z in acts of terror by radicalising them is frightening. And this change was ushered in after Bangladesh refused to hand over St Martin Island to them!

DARK CLOUDS

29. Having been encircled along our land borders and shown that the IOR / BOB is not exclusive for us the trio of Pakistan, China and Bangladesh supported by America India finds herself in the horns of decision dilemma on three counts:

a).What steps to take to unite India across all states and communities.

b)While stating our policy of Strategic Autonomy how best to defeat the American threat of Sanctions?

c). Which partners to align with for protecting our economic as well as energy interests?

The Government of India have their task cut out and at this point must bring the country together as one to face and pull through these turbulent times of the renewed Monroe Doctrine or Donroe Doctrine as the latest initiatives are being referred to.

LAST WORD

The harder Trump twists our arm the faster he pushes us towards Russia and that just might become the fulcrum of change leading to building bridges with China?!

I have shared random thoughts as they came to mind, hope that readers contribute to strengthen the arguments.