Towards India's Energy Independence - Gp Capt Johnson Chacko

India is dependent on imports for about 85% of the crude oil that it needs. This is a huge dependence on external energy sources and impinges upon its strategic autonomy. An analysis of global crude oil sources and its flow reveals that control of oil production and its flow is one of the main pillars of dominance.

Not long ago, the global energy system was relatively diversified. Europe depended substantially on Russian natural gas, China sourced oil and gas from suppliers such as Iran and Venezuela—often outside the US dollar system—Qatar was the dominant exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and China’s Belt and Road Initiative enabled overland energy routes that reduced reliance on US controlled maritime chokepoints. This configuration increased bargaining power for energy importing states.

Subsequent geopolitical developments have significantly altered this structure.

The war in Ukraine and associated sanctions sharply curtailed Russian gas exports to Europe, while the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines eliminated near term prospects for resumption. Europe has since increased reliance on US LNG, reinforcing dollar denominated energy trade. Political changes in Syria are described as disrupting an overland corridor linking Iran to the Mediterranean, limiting alternative energy routes associated with the Belt and Road Initiative. Increased US influence over Venezuelan heavy crude is portrayed as consolidating access to major oil reserves and reducing non dollar energy options for China.

In West Asia, disruptions affecting Iran’s South Pars gas field, Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, and the Strait of Hormuz are argued to have constrained global gas supply. Under this interpretation, the United States emerges as the principal large scale LNG supplier, and further alignment of Iran with US interests would place a substantial share of global oil production under American influence. These developments are framed as a shift from a traditional petrodollar system toward a “petro LNG dollar” model, embedding long term dependence through capital intensive LNG infrastructure. Financial market movements—such as increased dollar demand and weaker alternative stores of value—are cited as consistent with this transition.

Energy control is linked to technological capacity. Artificial intelligence and semiconductor manufacturing require stable, large scale energy inputs and secure supply chains. Disruptions to West Asian energy flows and overland routes to China are constraining China’s capacity for data center and chip production, while US energy self sufficiency supports domestic expansion in these sectors. In this framework, the marginalization of Russia and the restriction of other energy corridors are reinforcing US influence over energy systems, monetary networks, and the infrastructure underlying advanced AI development.

What does India need to do to reduce dependence on imported energy sources? India has a mature nuclear energy programme. BARC has designed a small nuclear reactor. It will generate 200 MW of electricity. It costs Rs 5,700 crores. Besides the requirement of nuclear fuel etc, it needs large amount of water for cooling. India has a large coastline. If these plants are located on the coast, cooling can be done. The electricity generated can be hooked to the grid. The profit that can be generated is Rs 4.33 per unit. The return on investment is about 27% per year. This electricity can be used, wherever fossil fuels are used to reduce dependence on oil imports. NPCIL (Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited) is the nodal agency.

Transportation can shift to EVs. Certain unavoidable sectors will still need fossil fuels. Pollution will reduce which will reduce the health bill. Plastics manufacture will reduce as they are made from petrochemicals. Global warming will reduce. Advantages are many which includes lesser dependence on the petrodollar and maintaining strategic autonomy.